Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YUTU-18
in Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone YUTU-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 11 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (24 Oct 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 204 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 287 km/h 1.1 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 670000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 5 22 Oct 2018 12:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 6 22 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 7 23 Oct 2018 00:00 222 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 8 23 Oct 2018 06:00 213 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 10 23 Oct 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 11 24 Oct 2018 00:00 259 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 12 24 Oct 2018 06:00 278 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 13 24 Oct 2018 12:00 287 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 14 24 Oct 2018 18:00 278 260 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 15 25 Oct 2018 00:00 269 330 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 16 25 Oct 2018 06:00 269 2.1 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 17 25 Oct 2018 12:00 259 4.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 18 25 Oct 2018 18:00 241 9.3 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 19 26 Oct 2018 00:00 241 10.4 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 20 26 Oct 2018 06:00 241 33.8 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 21 26 Oct 2018 12:00 204 70.2 million 670 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people <1000 people 8.4, 157.6
GREEN
2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people <1000 people 8.6, 156.8
GREEN
3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 9, 155.9
GREEN
4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people <1000 people 9.8, 155
GREEN
5 22 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 10.6, 153.8
GREEN
6 22 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people <1000 people 10.9, 152.7
GREEN
7 23 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people <1000 people 11.5, 151.6
GREEN
8 23 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people <1000 people 11.8, 150.6
GREEN
9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 210000 people 12, 149.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
10 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 no people 210000 people 12.6, 148.9 Guam
RED
11 24 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 50000 people 210000 people 13.3, 147.9 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
12 24 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 51000 people 210000 people 13.9, 147.1 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
13 24 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 5 287 51000 people 210000 people 14.6, 146.2 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
14 24 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 278 49000 people 210000 people 15.3, 145.3 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
15 25 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 5 269 no people 210000 people 15.8, 144.2 Guam
GREEN
16 25 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 no people 210000 people 16, 143.2 Guam
GREEN
17 25 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 16.3, 142.3
GREEN
18 25 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.6, 141.4
GREEN
19 26 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.9, 140.3
GREEN
20 26 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.9, 138.9
GREEN
21 26 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 17.2, 137.6
GREEN
21 27 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 17.8, 134.9
GREEN
21 27 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 18.3, 132.4
GREEN
21 28 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 18.6, 130.5
GREEN
21 28 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 4 222 no people 15.6 million people 18.6, 128.7 Philippines
GREEN
21 29 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 3 204 <1000 people 61.8 million people 18.3, 125.6 Philippines
ORANGE
21 30 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 3 204 620000 people 69.8 million people 18.6, 123.1 Philippines
GREEN
21 31 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 2 176 no people no people 19, 120.6 Philippines
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Philippines

Provinces

Region Province Country
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands
Cagayan Valley Philippines
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines
Ilocos Philippines

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Saipan Northern Mariana Islands Capital 62000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Dynasty 46 0
Commonwealth Health Center 5 0
Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700
Nikko 18 0
Taggat 5 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Rota Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands
Saipan MPSPN Northern Mariana Islands
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands
Port San Vicente Philippines
Aparri PHAPR Philippines
Abulog Philippines
Calayan Philippines
Claveria Philippines
Dirique Inlet Philippines

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Sunharon Roads, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (56 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 26 Oct 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Gonzaga Philippines  0.3
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Bawa Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Cabiraoan Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Casambalangan Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Buguey Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Balza Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Meycauayan Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Tanza Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Tinajeros Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Caloocan Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Manila Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Punta Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 San Vincente Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Bisagu Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Aparri Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Linao Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Cavite Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Pamarauan Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Tanza Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Binakayan Philippines  0.2
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Tehero Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Alacan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Amaya Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Bateng Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Alilinu Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 General Trias Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 07:00 Canaoalan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 07:00 Carael Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 07:00 Dagupan Philippines  0.1
24 Oct 2018 14:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
24 Oct 2018 14:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Naic Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Imus Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 07:00 Binmale Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 03:00 Wright Philippines  0.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Cabuluan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Catuguran Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 02:00 Pequit Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 02:00 Pabanong Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 02:00 Hinabangan Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 06:00 Maniboc Philippines  0.1
30 Oct 2018 11:00 Poso Philippines  0.1