Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2019-000021-MOZ
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 194 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.3 m (14 Mar 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 167 km/h 2.3 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 194 km/h 2.3 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 213 6.6 million 870 thousand Mozambique
Orange 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 213 5.6 million 550 thousand Mozambique
Orange 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 204 2.9 million 250 thousand Mozambique
Orange 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 204 4.3 million 340 thousand Mozambique
Orange 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 213 4.1 million 1.3 million Mozambique
Orange 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 213 4.7 million 1.1 million Mozambique
Orange 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 222 5.2 million 440 thousand Mozambique
Orange 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 213 3 million 660 thousand Mozambique
Red 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 213 8.1 million 580 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Red 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 5.3 million 1.1 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Red 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 194 5.9 million 960 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Red 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 213 6.9 million 1.9 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Red 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 185 6 million 1.3 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Red 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 194 5.8 million 1.1 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Red 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 222 6 million 2 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Red 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 185 5.9 million 2 million Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Red 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 185 5.1 million 1.5 million Mozambique, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 120 6.3 million 1.9 million Mozambique, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Zimbabwe
Orange 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 157 9.7 million 910 thousand Mozambique, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 194 11.1 million 1.5 million Mozambique, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 185 6.9 million 1.8 million Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 185 11.4 million 2.6 million Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 176 10 million 1.2 million Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 167 10.9 million 1.9 million Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 110000 people -17, 40.2 Mozambique
GREEN
2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17, 41.3 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1200 people -16.9, 42 Madagascar
GREEN
4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 100000 people -17.2, 42.4 Madagascar
GREEN
5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 69000 people -17.4, 42.6 Madagascar
GREEN
6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 220000 people -17.2, 43 Madagascar
GREEN
7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 1 130 no people 310000 people -17.2, 43.2 Madagascar
GREEN
8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 2 167 no people 200000 people -17.3, 43.2 Madagascar
GREEN
9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 3 185 no people 180000 people -17.3, 43 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 Category 3 194 no people 100000 people -17.6, 42.6 Madagascar
GREEN
11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 3 194 no people 120000 people -17.7, 42.5 Madagascar
GREEN
12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 no people 49000 people -18, 42.2 Madagascar
GREEN
13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18.3, 41.9 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18.7, 41.3
GREEN
15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -19.1, 40.7
GREEN
16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -19.3, 40.2
GREEN
17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -19.4, 39.5
GREEN
18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 210000 people -19.5, 39 Mozambique
GREEN
19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.1 million people -19.5, 38.5 Mozambique
GREEN
20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 3 194 no people 2.4 million people -19.7, 37.9 Mozambique
GREEN
21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 3 194 8200 people 2.8 million people -19.8, 37.2 Mozambique
RED
22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 Category 3 185 850000 people 4.6 million people -19.9, 36.3 Mozambique
ORANGE
23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 2 176 990000 people 4.4 million people -19.7, 35.5 Mozambique
RED
24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 2 167 1.6 million people 5.7 million people -19.6, 34.8 Mozambique
ORANGE
24 15 Mar 2019 12:00 Category 1 139 860000 people 5.4 million people -19, 33.5 Mozambique
GREEN
24 16 Mar 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 6.2 million people -18.6, 32.5 Mozambique
GREEN
24 16 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -18.2, 31.4 Zimbabwe
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Zimbabwe
Juan De Nova I.

Provinces

Region Province Country
Sofala Mozambique
Manica Mozambique
Manicaland Zimbabwe
Juan De Nova I. Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people
Chimoio Manica Mozambique City 260000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
Chimoio VPY 686 Civ. Paved No 7800

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Beira MZBEW Mozambique

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Odzani Lake Odzani Odzani 1966
Smallbridge Odzani 1985

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

2.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.3m in Chofandicho, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (147 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 24 of 15 Mar 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  2.3
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Panaca Mozambique  2.3
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Damiao Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Nhangau Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Chamba Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Beira Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Manica Mozambique  2.0
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Tama Mozambique  1.4
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Chiloane Mozambique  1.1
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Jonja Mozambique  1.1
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Amado Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 16:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 09:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.4
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.4
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Jo Mozambique  0.4
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.4
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.3
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 12:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
11 Mar 2019 08:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 07:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.3
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 01:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 01:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 01:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 07:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 07:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 02:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 01:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 01:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 01:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Napito Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Larde Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1