Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19
in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
08 Dec 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
    Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.7 m (09 Dec 17:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 185 km/h 1.7 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 185 km/h 1.7 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      185 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 67000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 130 490 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 130 670 thousand Few people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 157 850 thousand 50 thousand Madagascar
        Green 4 06 Dec 2019 06:00 167 1.2 million 90 thousand Madagascar
        Green 5 06 Dec 2019 18:00 176 1.2 million 20 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Red 6 07 Dec 2019 06:00 204 3 million 260 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 7 07 Dec 2019 18:00 120 1.5 million 120 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Orange 8 08 Dec 2019 06:00 185 1.7 million 70 thousand Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -6.7, 51.6
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -6.7, 50.9
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -7.1, 49.9
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -7.9, 48.7
          GREEN
          		 5 06 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 <1000 people <1000 people -9.2, 48.4
          GREEN
          		 6 07 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 2 157 no people <1000 people -9.6, 47.4 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 7 07 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 3 185 no people <1000 people -10.9, 47.2 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 8 08 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -12, 46.6 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 8 08 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 3 204 no people no people -13.2, 46.2
          ORANGE
          		 8 09 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 3 185 27000 people 300000 people -14.6, 45.7 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 8 09 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 2 167 61000 people 710000 people -16.3, 45.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 10 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.4 million people -18.1, 44.8 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 8 11 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.5, 45.1 Madagascar
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Mahajanga Madagascar

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Soalala DWB 43 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Morafenobe TVA unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Cosmoledo Island Seychelles
          Bali Madagascar
          Soalala MGDWB Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          1.7 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.7m in Baly, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 17:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (155 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 08 Dec 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Baly Madagascar  1.7
          09 Dec 2019 16:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.7
          09 Dec 2019 16:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.7
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ampasimaleotra Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ankilahila Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ankomany Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 16:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 09:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 12:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 17:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 16:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 17:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 16:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Berafia Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 10:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 18:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 22:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 22:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 12:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Larde Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 10:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 10:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 09:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 07:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 08:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 08:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 08:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 08:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 08:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 08:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 05:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1