Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for OLAF-21 in Mexico from 07 Sep 2021 21:00 UTC to 09 Sep 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21

in Mexico

09 Sep 2021 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	310 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (10 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	130 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Sep 2021 21:00	120	No people	No people
2	08 Sep 2021 03:00	120	80 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	08 Sep 2021 09:00	120	70 thousand	No people	Mexico
4	08 Sep 2021 15:00	111	No people	No people
5	08 Sep 2021 21:00	111	120 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	09 Sep 2021 03:00	111	280 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	09 Sep 2021 09:00	130	320 thousand	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	07 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.2, -107.9
2	08 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.2, -107.4
3	08 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.5, -107.1
4	08 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.9, -107.5
5	08 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	19.4, -107.7
6	09 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	20, -108
7	09 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	20.5, -108
7	09 Sep 2021 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	310000 people	21.4, -108.6
7	10 Sep 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	320000 people	22.6, -110
7	10 Sep 2021 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	3500 people	23.5, -111.7
7	11 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	23.7, -113.2
7	11 Sep 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	23.5, -114.5
7	12 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	23.1, -115.7
7	13 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.1, -118.5
7	14 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	21.3, -121.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California Sur	Mexico

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in La Tinaja, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (9 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 09 Sep 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Sep 2021 09:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.2
	10 Sep 2021 07:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 06:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 10:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 11:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 06:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 08:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 20:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 22:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.