Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
12 Sep 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Sep 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 79 km/h 0.5 m 469 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 79 km/h 0.5 m 469 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

Up to 380 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico376,172 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 09 Sep 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Sep 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 8 10 Sep 2021 12:00 79 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 11 Sep 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Sep 2021 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 12 Sep 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico79,086 
100-250 mmMexico1,690,099 
50-100 mmMexico4,737,614 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 229 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 09 Sep 2021 00:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 12:00 232 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 10 Sep 2021 00:00 266 170 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 8 10 Sep 2021 12:00 55 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 11 Sep 2021 00:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Sep 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 12 Sep 2021 00:00 398 730 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMexico00
+
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico1,499 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 19:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.5
10 Sep 2021 19:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.5
10 Sep 2021 19:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.5
08 Sep 2021 03:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 01:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 01:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 01:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.3
08 Sep 2021 03:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 05:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:15 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Cunano Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 08:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 17:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 17:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 02:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 02:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:45 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 13:45 Quinones Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:15 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:15 El Tule Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:45 Rosario Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:15 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
07 Sep 2021 23:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:15 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:30 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
07 Sep 2021 23:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 19:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 16:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 04:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 21:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
07 Sep 2021 21:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
07 Sep 2021 21:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
07 Sep 2021 23:00 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
07 Sep 2021 23:00 Empalme Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 13:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 13:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 13:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 00:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 00:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 06:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 04:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 20:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 02:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 09:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 09:15 Monteon Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 09:15 La Lima Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 02:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:45 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 15:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 05:15 El Barril Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:45 Mulege Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 00:00 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 15:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 15:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 15:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Chamela Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 21:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 02:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 02:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 01:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 00:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 06:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 01:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Chula Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 08:45 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 19:30 Joluta Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Barron Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:15 Liliba Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 13:00 El Rosario Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:45 Ligui Mexico  0.1