Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
12 Oct 2021 03 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: CE-2021-000162-SOM
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 130 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (13 Oct 12:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    13 Oct 2021 12:00 - 14 Oct 2021 00:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 176 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 130 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      176 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 740000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 10 Oct 2021 09:00 176 2.5 million 230 thousand Mexico
        Orange 2 10 Oct 2021 15:00 176 2.6 million 230 thousand Mexico
        Orange 3 10 Oct 2021 21:00 176 3 million 360 thousand Mexico
        Red 4 11 Oct 2021 03:00 185 2.9 million 250 thousand Mexico
        Orange 5 11 Oct 2021 09:00 185 5 million 200 thousand Mexico
        Red 6 11 Oct 2021 15:00 194 4.4 million 160 thousand Mexico
        Red 7 11 Oct 2021 21:00 185 5.8 million 490 thousand Mexico
        Orange 8 12 Oct 2021 03:00 176 5.8 million 740 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 10 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -102.9
          GREEN
          		 2 10 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.8, -104.7
          GREEN
          		 3 10 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.5, -105.9
          GREEN
          		 4 11 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.9, -106.8
          GREEN
          		 5 11 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 16.2, -107.6
          GREEN
          		 6 11 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 16.8, -108.1
          GREEN
          		 7 11 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.2, -108.5
          GREEN
          		 8 12 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.9, -108.9
          GREEN
          		 8 12 Oct 2021 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 19.2, -109.1
          GREEN
          		 8 13 Oct 2021 00:00 Category 2 157 <1000 people 2 million people 21, -108.5
          ORANGE
          		 8 13 Oct 2021 12:00 Category 2 176 740000 people 4.7 million people 23.1, -106.9
          GREEN
          		 8 14 Oct 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 2.6 million people 26.1, -103.3 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 8 14 Oct 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 29.5, -99.5 United States
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Sinaloa Mexico
          Durango Mexico
          Coahuila Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people
          Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
          Rancho El Durangueno 2500 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (20 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 13 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Marmol Mexico  0.5
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Florida Mexico  0.4
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Dimas Mexico  0.4
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 13:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 13:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 13:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 13:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 13:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 12:00 Barron Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 15:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
          13 Oct 2021 10:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
          13 Oct 2021 15:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
          13 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1