Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21 in Mexico from 10 Oct 2021 09:00 UTC to 14 Oct 2021 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21

in Mexico

14 Oct 2021 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	CE-2021-000162-SOM
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	130 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	130 km/h
Maximum storm surge	n.a.
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 13 Oct 2021 09:00 - 13 Oct 2021 15:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	46 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	130 km/h	1.1 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	10 Oct 2021 09:00	176	2.5 million	230 thousand	Mexico
2	10 Oct 2021 15:00	176	2.6 million	230 thousand	Mexico
3	10 Oct 2021 21:00	176	3 million	360 thousand	Mexico
4	11 Oct 2021 03:00	185	2.9 million	250 thousand	Mexico
5	11 Oct 2021 09:00	185	5 million	200 thousand	Mexico
6	11 Oct 2021 15:00	194	4.4 million	160 thousand	Mexico
7	11 Oct 2021 21:00	185	5.8 million	490 thousand	Mexico
8	12 Oct 2021 03:00	176	5.8 million	740 thousand	Mexico
9	12 Oct 2021 09:00	167	4.2 million	240 thousand	Mexico
10	12 Oct 2021 15:00	157	4.6 million	120 thousand	Mexico
11	12 Oct 2021 21:00	139	5.8 million	100 thousand	Mexico
12	13 Oct 2021 03:00	130	4.9 million	170 thousand	Mexico
13	13 Oct 2021 09:00	120	5.3 million	540 thousand	Mexico
14	13 Oct 2021 15:00	102	5.3 million	130 thousand	Mexico
15	13 Oct 2021 21:00	56	5.2 million	130 thousand	Mexico
16	14 Oct 2021 03:00	46	5.2 million	130 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	10 Oct 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.3, -102.9
2	10 Oct 2021 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.8, -104.7
3	10 Oct 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.5, -105.9
4	11 Oct 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.9, -106.8
5	11 Oct 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16.2, -107.6
6	11 Oct 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.8, -108.1
7	11 Oct 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17.2, -108.5
8	12 Oct 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17.9, -108.9
9	12 Oct 2021 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	19.2, -108.9
10	12 Oct 2021 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	20.4, -108.9
11	12 Oct 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1 million people	21, -109.3
12	13 Oct 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	111	58000 people	2.4 million people	21.9, -108.7
13	13 Oct 2021 09:00	Category 1	120	540000 people	3 million people	22.8, -107.6
14	13 Oct 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	4.9 million people	24.4, -106	Mexico
15	13 Oct 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	26, -103.7	Mexico
16	14 Oct 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	27.5, -101.5	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

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