Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for BATSIRAI-22 in Madagascar from 27 Jan 2022 00:00 UTC to 04 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22

in Madagascar

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000160-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (05 Feb 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 05 Feb 2022 12:00 - 06 Feb 2022 00:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	204 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.4 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	27 Jan 2022 00:00	102	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
2	27 Jan 2022 12:00	167	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
3	28 Jan 2022 00:00	130	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
4	28 Jan 2022 12:00	139	1000 thousand	No people	Mauritius
5	29 Jan 2022 00:00	176	1.1 million	No people	Mauritius
6	29 Jan 2022 12:00	194	2.2 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
7	30 Jan 2022 00:00	185	2 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
8	30 Jan 2022 12:00	204	3.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
9	31 Jan 2022 00:00	194	3.7 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
10	31 Jan 2022 12:00	194	14.4 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
11	01 Feb 2022 00:00	204	16.4 million	480 thousand	Madagascar
12	01 Feb 2022 12:00	204	18.9 million	3.8 million	Madagascar
13	02 Feb 2022 00:00	231	20.3 million	2.8 million	Madagascar
14	02 Feb 2022 12:00	204	21 million	2.7 million	Madagascar
15	03 Feb 2022 00:00	204	20.8 million	3.6 million	Madagascar
16	03 Feb 2022 12:00	185	20.6 million	4.3 million	Madagascar
17	04 Feb 2022 00:00	204	20.6 million	4.4 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	27 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-16.4, 83.7
2	27 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-18, 79.6
3	28 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-18.6, 76.1
4	28 Jan 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-18.3, 73.4
5	29 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-18.2, 71.2
6	29 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-18, 69.9
7	30 Jan 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17.6, 68.2
8	30 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-16.8, 66.1
9	31 Jan 2022 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-16.4, 64.5
10	31 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-15.7, 63.2
11	01 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-16.4, 62.3
12	01 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	1.2 million people	-17.2, 60.1
13	02 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	2.2 million people	-18.1, 58.3
14	02 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	2.2 million people	-18.9, 56.7
15	03 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	2.2 million people	-19.1, 55.7
16	03 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 4	213	no people	850000 people	-19.2, 54.9
17	04 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	850000 people	-19.4, 53.9
17	04 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 3	204	no people	3.3 million people	-19.6, 52.6
17	05 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 3	204	430000 people	14.6 million people	-20, 51
17	05 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 3	185	3.8 million people	17.4 million people	-20.4, 49.1
17	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	120	2.7 million people	16.9 million people	-21, 46.6	Madagascar
17	07 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.8 million people	-22.5, 42.1
17	08 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	530000 people	-24.2, 40.6
17	09 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-26.6, 40.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Antananarivo	Madagascar
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Ambositra	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	30000 people
Fianarantsoa	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	160000 people
Manja	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Ankazoabo	Toliara	Madagascar	City	26000 people
Ambohibe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Morombe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Fianarantsoa	WFI	1115	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Ambalavao		972	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600
Malaimbandy	WML	182	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3900
Beroroha	WBO	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Mandabe	WMD	290	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Manja	MJA	240	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5200
Ankazoabo	WAK	430	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Tanandava	TDV	27	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4500
Morombe	MXM	5	Civ.	Paved	No	4200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar
Morombe	MGMXM	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Nosy-Varika, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2022 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (166 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 04 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Feb 2022 14:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.6
	05 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.6
	05 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.6
	05 Feb 2022 15:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.6
	05 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.5
	07 Feb 2022 12:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.5
	07 Feb 2022 12:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.5
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.5
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.5
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 11:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.4
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 18:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.4
	07 Feb 2022 09:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.4
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 17:00	Ambohibe	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 17:00	Andranopasy	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 18:00	Andavadoaka	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 17:00	Anadramy Nord	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 17:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 17:00	Mangolovolo	Madagascar	0.4
	07 Feb 2022 05:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.4
	07 Feb 2022 12:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.4
	07 Feb 2022 09:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 11:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2022 15:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2022 05:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2022 15:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 21:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2022 14:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 04:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 08:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 06:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2022 08:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2022 12:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 20:00	Befandeva	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2022 06:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2022 06:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2022 13:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.3
	07 Feb 2022 13:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 09:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2022 06:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2022 06:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 20:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 19:00	Andalambezo	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 15:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 15:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 15:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2022 13:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.3
	05 Feb 2022 16:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 07:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 14:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 14:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 14:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 14:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 15:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 13:00	Marofihitsa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambararata	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 13:00	Manahy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 13:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 07:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 08:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 16:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 16:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 16:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 11:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 14:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 06:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 12:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 07:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 14:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 14:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambohitrabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 11:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 20:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 20:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 20:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 20:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 19:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 17:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 17:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 17:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 15:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 22:00	Salary	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 06:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 16:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 17:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 19:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 12:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 13:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 06:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 01:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 09:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 19:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 17:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 14:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 15:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 19:00	Ambatomilo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 19:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 07:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2022 22:00	Bekodoy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 08:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 19:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 11:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 11:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 16:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 06:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 22:00	Tsiandamba	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 03:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 08:00	Chululu	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 11:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 06:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 09:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2022 00:00	Siane	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 12:00	Manombo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2022 00:00	Afo	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 17:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 15:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 09:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 09:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 10:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 10:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 10:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 10:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 10:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 10:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 10:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 13:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2022 00:00	Guiducua	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 22:00	Tsifota	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2022 00:00	Miramar	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 07:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 19:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 10:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 12:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 00:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 00:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 22:00	Build v7.1 2008-03-26	Europa Island	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 22:00	Warren Point	Europa Island	0.1
	08 Feb 2022 00:00	Mabsil	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 00:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 04:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 06:00	Namorre	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 08:00	Moebase	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 09:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2022 11:00	Morrua	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2022 00:00	Tulear	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2022 00:00	Praia do Tofo	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2022 00:00	Miary	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.