Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 19 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

19 Feb 2022 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (22 Feb 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 12:00 - 23 Feb 2022 12:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	167 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.2 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	148	14.9 million	220 thousand	Madagascar
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	176	17.7 million	2.3 million	Madagascar
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	157	19.1 million	2.9 million	Madagascar
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	167	16.2 million	3.2 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 63
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 61.3
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16, 59.5
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.4, 58.1
7	20 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-17.4, 56.6
7	20 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-17.9, 55.1
7	21 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-18.3, 53.8
7	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	520000 people	10.9 million people	-18.9, 52.2
7	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	167	3.2 million people	15.7 million people	-20.5, 48.9
7	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	6 million people	-23.4, 45.1	Madagascar
7	24 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-26.6, 42.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Fianarantsoa	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	160000 people
Ihosy	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	17000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Fianarantsoa	WFI	1115	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Ambalavao		972	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600
Ihosy	IHO	762	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Ambahy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (83 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 19 Feb 2022 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.6
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 10:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 07:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Farafangana	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Belalanda	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Tulear	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Manombo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Tanilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Manambotra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.