Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GOMBE-22 in Madagascar from 07 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC to 10 Mar 2022 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GOMBE-22

in Madagascar

10 Mar 2022 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GOMBE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000182-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	100 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (11 Mar 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 11 Mar 2022 00:00 - 11 Mar 2022 12:00 in Mozambique

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	185 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	185 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to 600000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 18:00	111	1000 thousand	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	08 Mar 2022 06:00	130	4.9 million	230 thousand	Mozambique
3	08 Mar 2022 18:00	139	8.1 million	540 thousand	Mozambique
4	09 Mar 2022 06:00	130	5.3 million	1.3 million	Mozambique
5	09 Mar 2022 18:00	185	6.2 million	2.1 million	Mozambique
6	10 Mar 2022 00:00	185	5.9 million	440 thousand	Mozambique
7	10 Mar 2022 06:00	167	8 million	500 thousand	Mozambique
8	10 Mar 2022 12:00	185	7 million	600 thousand	Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-15.6, 51.3
2	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-15.4, 49.4	Madagascar
3	08 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	400000 people	-15.1, 47.6	Madagascar
4	09 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.8, 46
5	09 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-15.3, 44.3
6	10 Mar 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-15.3, 43.6
7	10 Mar 2022 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	1.1 million people	-15.6, 42.8
8	10 Mar 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	100000 people	1.5 million people	-15.9, 42.1
8	11 Mar 2022 00:00	Category 3	185	460000 people	4 million people	-16, 40.6
8	11 Mar 2022 12:00	Category 1	148	190000 people	4.3 million people	-15.9, 39.3	Mozambique
8	12 Mar 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.5 million people	-15.7, 38.1	Mozambique
8	12 Mar 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-16, 37.3	Mozambique
8	13 Mar 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	1.5 million people	-16.9, 37.4	Mozambique
8	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.5 million people	-18.4, 38.2
8	15 Mar 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-20.3, 39.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Nampula	Mozambique
Zambezia	Mozambique

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Angoche	ANO	36	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Quinga		Mozambique
Angoche	MZANO	Mozambique

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Muaco, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 11 Mar 2022 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (94 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 10 Mar 2022 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Muaco	Mozambique	0.7
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Namacoto	Mozambique	0.7
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.6
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Namuali	Mozambique	0.6
	11 Mar 2022 03:00	Quinga	Mozambique	0.5
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Momade	Mozambique	0.5
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.5
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.5
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.5
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.5
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Natiquinde	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 02:00	Metula	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.3
	13 Mar 2022 22:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.3
	13 Mar 2022 22:00	Metapa	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 01:00	Metopa	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 11:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 11:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 11:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 11:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Mar 2022 21:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Larde	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Coropoa	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Angoche	Mozambique	0.2
	13 Mar 2022 23:00	Carramali	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 11:00	Mocareja	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Mar 2022 22:00	Barroa	Mozambique	0.2
	13 Mar 2022 22:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 12:00	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 09:00	Napito	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 09:00	Namorre	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Mar 2022 22:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Mar 2022 23:00	Bajone	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Mar 2022 21:00	Coluvelane	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Mar 2022 18:00	Terrene	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Morrua	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Pebane	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Chiloane	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Bartolomeu Dias	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 11:00	Chululu	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 12:00	Murrumuana	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 12:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.