Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for GOMBE-22 in Madagascar from 07 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC to 12 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for GOMBE-22

in Madagascar

12 Mar 2022 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GOMBE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000182-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	100 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1 m (11 Mar 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 10 Mar 2022 18:00 - 11 Mar 2022 00:00 in Mozambique

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	46 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	185 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 410000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 18:00	111	1000 thousand	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	08 Mar 2022 06:00	130	4.9 million	230 thousand	Mozambique
3	08 Mar 2022 18:00	139	8.1 million	540 thousand	Mozambique
4	09 Mar 2022 06:00	130	5.3 million	1.3 million	Mozambique
5	09 Mar 2022 18:00	185	6.2 million	2.1 million	Mozambique
6	10 Mar 2022 00:00	185	5.9 million	440 thousand	Mozambique
7	10 Mar 2022 06:00	167	8 million	500 thousand	Mozambique
8	10 Mar 2022 12:00	185	7 million	600 thousand	Mozambique
9	10 Mar 2022 18:00	148	6.4 million	850 thousand	Mozambique
10	11 Mar 2022 00:00	185	5.6 million	No people	Mozambique, Madagascar
11	11 Mar 2022 06:00	148	410 thousand	No people	Madagascar
12	11 Mar 2022 18:00	83	410 thousand	No people	Madagascar
13	12 Mar 2022 06:00	83	2.8 million	No people	Mozambique, Madagascar
14	12 Mar 2022 18:00	46	410 thousand	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-15.6, 51.3
2	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-15.4, 49.4	Madagascar
3	08 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	400000 people	-15.1, 47.6	Madagascar
4	09 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.8, 46
5	09 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-15.3, 44.3
6	10 Mar 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-15.3, 43.6
7	10 Mar 2022 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	1.1 million people	-15.6, 42.8
8	10 Mar 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	100000 people	1.5 million people	-15.9, 42.1
9	10 Mar 2022 18:00	Category 1	148	300000 people	4.3 million people	-15.9, 41.4
10	11 Mar 2022 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	4.2 million people	-15.5, 40.7	Mozambique
11	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-15.2, 40.1	Mozambique
12	11 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-15.2, 38.4	Mozambique
13	12 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-15.3, 36.7	Mozambique
14	12 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	-15.6, 35.1	Malawi
14	13 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	-16.2, 34.6	Malawi, Mozambique

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

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