Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for IAN-22 in United States, Cuba from 23 Sep 2022 09:00 UTC to 02 Oct 2022 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for IAN-22

in United States, Cuba

02 Oct 2022 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IAN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000320-CUB
Exposed countries	United States, Cuba
Exposed population	5.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	250 km/h
Maximum storm surge	3.1 m (28 Sep 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Cuba)
Landfall	between 30 Sep 2022 15:00 - 30 Sep 2022 21:00 in United States

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	37 km/h	3.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	250 km/h	3.1 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

37 km/h Current Max.

Up to 60.9 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	23 Sep 2022 09:00	176	18.2 million	No people	Jamaica, Cuba, Cayman Islands, United States
2	23 Sep 2022 15:00	185	21.2 million	No people	Jamaica, Cuba, Cayman Islands, United States
3	23 Sep 2022 21:00	185	16 million	No people	Cayman Islands, Cuba, United States
4	24 Sep 2022 03:00	185	22 million	No people	Cayman Islands, Cuba, United States
5	24 Sep 2022 09:00	185	15.6 million	4.1 million	Cayman Islands, Cuba, United States
6	24 Sep 2022 15:00	194	14.5 million	1.4 million	Cuba, United States
7	24 Sep 2022 21:00	213	5.8 million	40 thousand	Cuba
8	25 Sep 2022 03:00	213	10.3 million	100 thousand	Cuba, United States
9	25 Sep 2022 09:00	222	11.8 million	150 thousand	Cuba, United States
10	25 Sep 2022 15:00	213	11.5 million	150 thousand	Cuba, United States
11	25 Sep 2022 21:00	213	15.3 million	750 thousand	Cuba, United States
12	26 Sep 2022 03:00	213	23.9 million	960 thousand	Cuba, United States
13	26 Sep 2022 09:00	194	25.4 million	980 thousand	Cuba, United States
14	26 Sep 2022 15:00	194	20.5 million	1.6 million	Cuba, United States
15	26 Sep 2022 21:00	213	23.3 million	3.5 million	Cuba, United States
16	27 Sep 2022 03:00	213	23.5 million	5.4 million	Cuba, United States
17	27 Sep 2022 09:00	204	27.6 million	5.7 million	Cuba, United States
18	27 Sep 2022 15:00	213	51.8 million	3.6 million	Cuba, United States
19	27 Sep 2022 21:00	213	38.3 million	4.7 million	Cuba, United States
20	28 Sep 2022 03:00	213	39.6 million	3.2 million	United States, Cuba
21	28 Sep 2022 04:30	213	39.6 million	3.2 million	United States, Cuba
22	28 Sep 2022 09:00	222	35.9 million	5.9 million	United States, Cuba
23	28 Sep 2022 11:00	250	35.9 million	5.6 million	United States, Cuba
24	28 Sep 2022 15:00	250	36.1 million	3 million	United States, Cuba
25	28 Sep 2022 21:00	222	44.9 million	5 million	United States, Cuba
26	29 Sep 2022 03:00	148	48.8 million	5 million	United States, Cuba
27	29 Sep 2022 09:00	111	57.3 million	3.7 million	United States, Cuba
28	29 Sep 2022 15:00	120	51.3 million	4.9 million	United States, Cuba
29	29 Sep 2022 21:00	130	47.7 million	5.8 million	United States, Cuba
30	30 Sep 2022 03:00	139	52.7 million	5.2 million	United States, Cuba
31	30 Sep 2022 09:00	139	60.7 million	4.9 million	United States, Cuba
32	30 Sep 2022 15:00	139	60.7 million	5.2 million	United States, Cuba
33	30 Sep 2022 21:00	111	61.4 million	5.2 million	United States, Cuba
34	01 Oct 2022 03:00	83	61.2 million	5.2 million	United States, Cuba
35	01 Oct 2022 09:00	56	60.9 million	5.2 million	United States, Cuba
38	02 Oct 2022 03:00	37	60.9 million	5.2 million	United States, Cuba

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	23 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.9, -68.6
2	23 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.2, -70.1
3	23 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.7, -71.3
4	24 Sep 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.8, -72
5	24 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.7, -73.5
6	24 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.4, -75.2
7	24 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.3, -77
8	25 Sep 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.7, -77.7
9	25 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.9, -78.8
10	25 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.2, -79.8
11	25 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	16.2, -80.3
12	26 Sep 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	58000 people	17.3, -81.4
13	26 Sep 2022 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	58000 people	18.2, -82
14	26 Sep 2022 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	580000 people	19.1, -82.7
15	26 Sep 2022 21:00	Category 2	157	22000 people	3.3 million people	20.3, -83.2
16	27 Sep 2022 03:00	Category 2	167	570000 people	3.8 million people	21.3, -83.4
17	27 Sep 2022 09:00	Category 3	204	580000 people	3.7 million people	22.3, -83.7	Cuba
18	27 Sep 2022 15:00	Category 3	185	250000 people	4.1 million people	23, -83.5	Cuba
19	27 Sep 2022 21:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	24, -83.2
20	28 Sep 2022 03:00	Category 3	194	51000 people	13.8 million people	24.9, -82.9
21	28 Sep 2022 04:30	Category 3	194	51000 people	12.9 million people	25, -82.9
22	28 Sep 2022 09:00	Category 4	222	1.2 million people	16.4 million people	25.6, -82.9
23	28 Sep 2022 11:00	Category 4	250	1.2 million people	16.3 million people	25.9, -82.8
24	28 Sep 2022 15:00	Category 4	250	1.3 million people	18.9 million people	26.3, -82.5
25	28 Sep 2022 21:00	Category 4	222	2.2 million people	20.3 million people	26.9, -82	United States
26	29 Sep 2022 03:00	Category 1	148	2.5 million people	21 million people	27.5, -81.4	United States
27	29 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	56.6 million people	28, -80.9	United States
28	29 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	39.8 million people	28.7, -80.4
29	29 Sep 2022 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	35.9 million people	29.3, -79.9
30	30 Sep 2022 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	44.8 million people	30.2, -79.3
31	30 Sep 2022 09:00	Category 1	139	200000 people	54.9 million people	30.8, -79.1
32	30 Sep 2022 15:00	Category 1	139	1.5 million people	21.6 million people	32.4, -79
33	30 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	17.9 million people	33.9, -79.2	United States
34	01 Oct 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	18.6 million people	35.3, -79.5	United States
35	01 Oct 2022 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	35.7, -79.8	United States
38	02 Oct 2022 03:00	Tropical depression	28	no people	no people	37.3, -78.2	United States
38	02 Oct 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	37.2, -77.5	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
53.7 million people
290000 people
5.6 million people
40000 people

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
4.5 million people
10.2 million people
180000 people
4.9 million people
2.2 million people
7300 people
10.5 million people
1.9 million people
19.3 million people
290000 people
690000 people
760000 people
790000 people
2.1 million people
20000 people
380000 people
720000 people
85000 people
85000 people
40000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.