Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for ROSLYN-22 in Mexico from 20 Oct 2022 03:00 UTC to 21 Oct 2022 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22

in Mexico

21 Oct 2022 15 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000345-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	290 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1 m (23 Oct 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 23 Oct 2022 12:00 - 24 Oct 2022 00:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	176 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	213 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

176 km/h Current Max.

Up to 810000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	20 Oct 2022 03:00	167	2 million	130 thousand	Mexico
2	20 Oct 2022 09:00	167	2.6 million	460 thousand	Mexico
3	20 Oct 2022 15:00	157	2.8 million	350 thousand	Mexico
4	20 Oct 2022 21:00	157	3.2 million	130 thousand	Mexico
5	21 Oct 2022 03:00	157	1.6 million	90 thousand	Mexico
6	21 Oct 2022 09:00	176	4.2 million	1.8 million	Mexico
7	21 Oct 2022 15:00	176	4.4 million	810 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	20 Oct 2022 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.2, -101.3
2	20 Oct 2022 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.1, -101.5
3	20 Oct 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.2, -102
4	20 Oct 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.5, -103
5	21 Oct 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.7, -103.6
6	21 Oct 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.2, -103.8
7	21 Oct 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.4, -104.4
7	22 Oct 2022 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	17, -105.1
7	22 Oct 2022 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	64000 people	18.1, -106
7	23 Oct 2022 00:00	Category 2	176	4300 people	1.7 million people	19.6, -106.3
7	23 Oct 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	820000 people	2.7 million people	21.7, -105.8
7	24 Oct 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	2.5 million people	24.4, -104.4	Mexico
7	24 Oct 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	27.1, -102.5	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Mexico	810000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Nayarit	Mexico	140000 people
Durango	Mexico	670000 people
Sinaloa	Mexico	6500 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Tecuala	Nayarit	Mexico	City	15000 people
Acaponeta	Nayarit	Mexico	City	18000 people
Durango	Durango	Mexico	Major city	450000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Acaponeta		84				0
Guadalupe Victoria	DGO	1857	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9500

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Presa Guadalupe Victoria	Tunal	1962
	Presa Pena del Aguila	LaSauceda	1955

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.0m in El Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2022 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 21 Oct 2022 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	23 Oct 2022 13:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	1.0
	23 Oct 2022 13:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	1.0
	23 Oct 2022 13:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.8
	23 Oct 2022 12:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.5
	23 Oct 2022 15:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.5
	23 Oct 2022 14:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.4
	23 Oct 2022 12:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	23 Oct 2022 15:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2022 09:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2022 09:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2022 07:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2022 12:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2022 06:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2022 06:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2022 06:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2022 12:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.