Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for MAWAR-23 in Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Japan, China from 20 May 2023 00:00 UTC to 22 May 2023 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23

in Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Japan, China

22 May 2023 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Japan, China
Exposed population	170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	296 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (24 May 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	222 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	296 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

222 km/h Current Max.

Up to 170000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	20 May 2023 00:00	167	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
2	20 May 2023 06:00	157	230 thousand	30 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
3	20 May 2023 12:00	167	230 thousand	50 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
4	20 May 2023 18:00	167	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
5	21 May 2023 00:00	176	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
6	21 May 2023 06:00	167	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
7	21 May 2023 12:00	176	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
8	21 May 2023 18:00	176	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
9	22 May 2023 00:00	185	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
10	22 May 2023 06:00	204	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
11	22 May 2023 12:00	194	230 thousand	160 thousand	Guam
12	22 May 2023 18:00	222	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	20 May 2023 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	2400 people	5.4, 149.1
2	20 May 2023 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	2400 people	5.7, 149.2
3	20 May 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	4400 people	5.7, 149.3
4	20 May 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	4400 people	6.1, 149.2
5	21 May 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	5500 people	6.8, 149.2
6	21 May 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	6000 people	7.6, 148.7
7	21 May 2023 12:00	Category 1	130	<1000 people	2700 people	8, 148.3
8	21 May 2023 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	<1000 people	8.5, 148.1
9	22 May 2023 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	<1000 people	9.1, 147.7
10	22 May 2023 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	<1000 people	9.5, 147
11	22 May 2023 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	<1000 people	10, 146.9
12	22 May 2023 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	10.5, 146.8
12	23 May 2023 06:00	Category 4	213	no people	170000 people	11.7, 146.3
12	23 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	222	170000 people	220000 people	12.7, 145.4
12	24 May 2023 06:00	Category 4	222	170000 people	220000 people	13.4, 144.4
12	24 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	170000 people	13.9, 143
12	25 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	14.8, 139.2
12	26 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	15.8, 134.3
12	27 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	17.3, 129.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Guam	170000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Guam	Guam	170000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Hagåtña		Guam	Capital	1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
A.B. Won Pat International	GUM	91				0
Andersen AFB	UAM	191				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Apra (Agana)	GUAPR	Guam
Apra Harbor		Guam

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Inarajan, Guam. This height is estimated for 24 May 2023 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (32 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 22 May 2023 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 May 2023 02:00	Inarajan	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 02:00	Agat	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 02:00	Umatac	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 02:00	Santa Rita	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 02:00	Merizo	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 02:00	Talofofo	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 02:00	Ylig	Guam	0.7
	24 May 2023 05:00	Lockwood Terrace	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 05:00	Camp Bright	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 05:00	Piti	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 03:00	Asan	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 03:00	Hagatna	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 03:00	Sinajana	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 03:00	Mongmong	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 03:00	Yona	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 03:00	Tamuning	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 03:00	Barrigada	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 03:00	Camp Quezon	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 03:00	Asbeco	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 03:00	Adacao	Guam	0.6
	24 May 2023 02:00	Harmon Village	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	Oceanview	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	Dededo	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	South Acres	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	Ipapao	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	Potts Junction	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	Perez Acres	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	Spring Hill Subdivision	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	Upi	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	Gayinero	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	Asatdas	Guam	0.2
	24 May 2023 02:00	Lupog	Guam	0.2

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.