Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GAMANE-24 in Madagascar from 25 Mar 2024 18:00 UTC to 27 Mar 2024 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GAMANE-24

in Madagascar

27 Mar 2024 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GAMANE-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	560 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	169 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (27 Mar 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 26 Mar 2024 18:00 - 27 Mar 2024 00:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	106 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	169 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

106 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	25 Mar 2024 18:00	211	4.4 million	3 thousand	Madagascar
2	26 Mar 2024 00:00	179	2.2 million	440 thousand	Madagascar
3	26 Mar 2024 00:00	95	4 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	26 Mar 2024 06:00	190	3.3 million	580 thousand	Madagascar
5	26 Mar 2024 12:00	190	3.8 million	340 thousand	Madagascar
6	26 Mar 2024 18:00	190	2.9 million	300 thousand	Madagascar
7	27 Mar 2024 00:00	169	1.9 million	180 thousand	Madagascar
8	27 Mar 2024 06:00	148	2.3 million	400 thousand	Madagascar
9	27 Mar 2024 12:00	106	3 million	560 thousand	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	25 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 51.5
1	25 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	200000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 51.1
2	25 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-12.8, 51.1
2	26 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.3 million people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 50.9
3	26 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	4 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-12.5, 50.9
4	26 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.4 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-12.4, 50.6
5	26 Mar 2024 12:00	Category 1	127	no people	490000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-12.4, 50.6
6	26 Mar 2024 18:00	Category 1	148	100000 people	1.3 million people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-12.7, 50.4
7	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Category 2	169	180000 people	1.8 million people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-12.9, 50	Madagascar
8	27 Mar 2024 06:00	Category 1	148	410000 people	2.1 million people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-12.9, 49.7	Madagascar
9	27 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	2.7 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-13.4, 49.2	Madagascar
9	28 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	2.3 million people	Overland Depression	56	-14.2, 49.4	Madagascar
9	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-15, 49.9	Madagascar
9	29 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	270000 people	Overland Depression	56	-15.4, 50.6	Madagascar
9	29 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	270000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-15.8, 51.5
9	30 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-16.3, 52.3
9	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-16.7, 53.1
9	31 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-17.3, 53.9
9	31 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-17.9, 54.6
9	01 Apr 2024 00:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-18.6, 55.6
9	01 Apr 2024 12:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	37	-19.5, 56.5

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	2.9 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Antsiranana	Madagascar	2 million people
Mahajanga	Madagascar	600000 people
Toamasina	Madagascar	260000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ambilobe	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	14000 people
Ambanja	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	30000 people
Vohemar	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	-
Antseranana	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	-
Sambava	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	31000 people
Andapa	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	20000 people
Antalaha	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	34000 people
Maroantsetra	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	24000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Ambilobe Mahavavy	AMB	22	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Ampampamena		15				0
Ambanja	IVA	11	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Vohemar	VOH	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Nosy Be Fascene	NOS	10	Civ.	Paved	No	7100
Doany	DOA	unknown				0
Antsiranana Arrachart	DIE	114	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Antsiranana Andrakaka		61	Mil.	Paved	No	8200
Bealanana	WBE	1120				0
Sambava	SVB	6	Civ.	Paved	No	5900
Andapa	ZWA	473	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Analalava	HVA	105	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3900
Antsohihy Ambalabe	WAI	28	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Befandriana	WBD	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100
Antalaha Antsirabato	ANM	6	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Maroantsetra	WMN	4	Civ.	Paved	No	4200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Port St. Louis	MGPSL	Madagascar
Vohemar		Madagascar
Nossi-Be	MGNOS	Madagascar
Cap Diego		Madagascar
Antsiranana	MGDIE	Madagascar
Sambava	MGSVB	Madagascar
Maromandia		Madagascar
Cape Amber		Madagascar
Analalava		Madagascar
Antataha	MGANM	Madagascar
Maroantsetra	MGWMN	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Ampisikanana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 27 Mar 2024 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (75 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 27 Mar 2024 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	27 Mar 2024 19:00	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.4
	27 Mar 2024 18:00	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.4
	28 Mar 2024 02:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.4
	28 Mar 2024 02:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.4
	28 Mar 2024 02:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.4
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 08:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.3
	27 Mar 2024 23:00	Ambatoharanana	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 07:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 07:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 03:00	Lokia	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 01:00	Vohemar	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 07:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 00:00	Andrafiamadinika	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 00:00	Antanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 07:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 11:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 11:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 11:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 11:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 11:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 11:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 00:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 07:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	27 Mar 2024 22:00	Ambolobozokely	Madagascar	0.2
	27 Mar 2024 22:00	Irodo	Madagascar	0.2
	27 Mar 2024 22:00	Ambaritsatrana	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 01:00	Ampondra	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.2
	31 Mar 2024 00:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 19:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 01:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 01:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 02:00	Amboanio	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 19:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 19:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 19:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 19:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 20:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 06:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 20:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 01:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 20:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 03:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 03:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 03:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 03:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 03:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 03:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 03:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 03:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 19:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 19:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Ampondrabe	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 02:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 20:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 05:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 20:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 23:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 02:00	Antsahotompy	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 23:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 07:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Mar 2024 07:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 19:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.