Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FLORENCE-18 in United States from 31 Aug 2018 21:00 UTC to 09 Sep 2018 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FLORENCE-18

in United States

09 Sep 2018 03 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FLORENCE-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	1.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (13 Sep 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	231 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	241 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

231 km/h Current Max.

Up to 160000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	30 Aug 2018 15:00	120	50 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
2	30 Aug 2018 21:00	120	40 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
3	31 Aug 2018 03:00	120	7 thousand	No people
4	31 Aug 2018 09:00	120	50 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
5	31 Aug 2018 15:00	120	No people	No people
6	31 Aug 2018 21:00	111	No people	No people
7	01 Sep 2018 03:00	111	No people	No people
8	01 Sep 2018 09:00	111	No people	No people
9	01 Sep 2018 15:00	111	No people	No people
10	01 Sep 2018 21:00	102	No people	No people
11	02 Sep 2018 03:00	102	No people	No people
12	02 Sep 2018 09:00	102	No people	No people
13	02 Sep 2018 15:00	102	No people	No people
14	02 Sep 2018 21:00	102	No people	No people
15	03 Sep 2018 03:00	93	No people	No people
16	03 Sep 2018 09:00	102	No people	No people
17	03 Sep 2018 15:00	111	No people	No people
18	03 Sep 2018 21:00	111	No people	No people
19	04 Sep 2018 03:00	111	No people	No people
20	04 Sep 2018 09:00	120	No people	No people
21	04 Sep 2018 15:00	120	No people	No people
22	04 Sep 2018 21:00	148	No people	No people
23	05 Sep 2018 03:00	167	No people	No people
24	05 Sep 2018 09:00	167	No people	No people
25	05 Sep 2018 15:00	204	No people	No people
26	05 Sep 2018 21:00	213	No people	No people
27	06 Sep 2018 03:00	213	No people	No people
28	06 Sep 2018 09:00	204	No people	No people
29	06 Sep 2018 15:00	194	No people	No people
30	06 Sep 2018 21:00	194	No people	No people
31	07 Sep 2018 03:00	204	No people	No people
32	07 Sep 2018 09:00	204	No people	No people
33	07 Sep 2018 15:00	213	No people	No people
34	07 Sep 2018 21:00	213	No people	No people
35	08 Sep 2018 03:00	213	No people	No people
36	08 Sep 2018 09:00	231	No people	No people
37	08 Sep 2018 15:00	231	No people	No people
38	08 Sep 2018 21:00	231	410 thousand	No people	United States
39	09 Sep 2018 03:00	231	2.7 million	160 thousand	United States

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	30 Aug 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	12.9, -18.4
2	30 Aug 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	12.9, -19.4
3	31 Aug 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.2, -20.9
4	31 Aug 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.6, -21.4
5	31 Aug 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.7, -22.7
6	31 Aug 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.8, -24.7
7	01 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.2, -25.5
8	01 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.5, -26.7
9	01 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.8, -27.8
10	01 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -29
11	02 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16, -30.2
12	02 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	16.5, -31.4
13	02 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17, -33.2
14	02 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17.4, -34.6
15	03 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17.9, -35.9
16	03 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	18, -37.5
17	03 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	18.3, -38.7
18	03 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	18.6, -39.8
19	04 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	18.9, -41
20	04 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	19.3, -42
21	04 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	19.7, -42.5
22	04 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	20.3, -43.2
23	05 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	20.7, -43.9
24	05 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	21.4, -44.8
25	05 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	22, -45.7
26	05 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	22.7, -46.6
27	06 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	23.4, -47.2
28	06 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	24.1, -47.9
29	06 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	24.6, -48.6
30	06 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	25, -49.6
31	07 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	25.1, -49.8
32	07 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	25.1, -50.7
33	07 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	25, -51.8
34	07 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.8, -52.5
35	08 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	24.8, -53.2
36	08 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.5, -54.2
37	08 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.5, -54.3
38	08 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.6, -54.7
39	09 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.6, -55.2
39	09 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	24.5, -55.9
39	10 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	24.8, -57.4
39	10 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	25.2, -59.3
39	11 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	25.8, -61.8
39	12 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	27.5, -67.5
39	13 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 4	231	160000 people	2.7 million people	30, -73.5	United States
39	14 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	33.8, -77.8	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
United States

Provinces

Region Province	Country
North Carolina	United States

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Wilmington	North Carolina	United States	City	76000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Pilots Ridge	11				0
Brunswick Media Center	8				0
Brunswick County	7	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4000
Winnabow	10				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Wrightsville	USXOG	Wake Island
Cape Fear	USCFN	Wake Island
Southport		Wake Island

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Atlantic, United States. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (86 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 39 of 09 Sep 2018 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Atlantic	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Stacy	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Masontown	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Roe	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Lola	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Straits	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Otway	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Gloucester	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Smyrna	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Marshallberg	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Williston	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Davis	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Sealevel	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 02:00	Red Bay	The Bahamas	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Bald Head Island	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Old Town	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Kendall Chapel	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Sheephead Rock	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Silver Lake	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Kure Beach	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Carolina Beach	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Myrtle Sound	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Myrtle Grove	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Winter Park	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Windemere	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Seagate	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Yaupon Beach	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Caswell Beach	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Coolvale	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Fort Caswell	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Southport	United States	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Masonboro	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Portsmouth	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Clambank	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	De Bordieu Colony	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Hagley Estates	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	True Blue	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Birds Nest	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Chapel Creek	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Annieville	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	North Litchfield Beach	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Ogden	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Wrightsville Beach	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Quarantine	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Bayshore	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Little Kinnakeet	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Salvo	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Steeple	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Rodanthe	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Huntington Marsh	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Oak Hill	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Murrells Inlet	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Inlet Harbor	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Mount Gilead	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Garden City	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Surfside Beach	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Deer Track Villas	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Crystal Lake	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Pebble Beach	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Myrtle Ridge	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Point Harbor	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Colington	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Fort Raleigh City	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Kitty Hawk	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	California	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Mother Vineyard	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Kill Devil Hills	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Croatan Shores	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Manteo	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Wanchese	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Nags Head	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Whalebone	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Ocracoke	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Widgen Woods	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Bethune Beach	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Eldora	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Pawleys Island	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Parkersville	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Hampstead	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Kings Landing	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Topsail Beach	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	McCellanville	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	McClellanville	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Isleboro	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Ponce Inlet	United States	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Ponce Park	United States	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.