Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YUTU-18
in Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone YUTU-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 11 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (24 Oct 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 278 km/h 1.1 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 287 km/h 1.1 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

278 km/h Current Max.

Up to 51000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 5 22 Oct 2018 12:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 6 22 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 7 23 Oct 2018 00:00 222 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 8 23 Oct 2018 06:00 213 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 10 23 Oct 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 11 24 Oct 2018 00:00 259 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 12 24 Oct 2018 06:00 278 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 13 24 Oct 2018 12:00 287 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 14 24 Oct 2018 18:00 278 260 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people <1000 people 8.4, 157.6
GREEN
2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people <1000 people 8.6, 156.8
GREEN
3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 9, 155.9
GREEN
4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people <1000 people 9.8, 155
GREEN
5 22 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 10.6, 153.8
GREEN
6 22 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people <1000 people 10.9, 152.7
GREEN
7 23 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people <1000 people 11.5, 151.6
GREEN
8 23 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people <1000 people 11.8, 150.6
GREEN
9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 210000 people 12, 149.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
10 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 no people 210000 people 12.6, 148.9 Guam
RED
11 24 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 50000 people 210000 people 13.3, 147.9 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
12 24 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 51000 people 210000 people 13.9, 147.1 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
13 24 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 5 287 51000 people 210000 people 14.6, 146.2 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
14 24 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 278 49000 people 210000 people 15.3, 145.3 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
14 25 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 no people 210000 people 16.1, 143.5 Guam
GREEN
14 25 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 16.7, 141.6
GREEN
14 26 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 17.3, 139.3
GREEN
14 26 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 17.9, 137
GREEN
14 27 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 18.8, 132.4
GREEN
14 28 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 241 no people 43000 people 19.5, 129.8 Japan
GREEN
14 29 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 20.4, 127.4
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.

Provinces

Region Province Country
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Saipan Northern Mariana Islands Capital 62000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Commonwealth Health Center 5 0
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700
Nikko 18 0
Dynasty 46 0
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Saipan MPSPN Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands
Rota Northern Mariana Islands

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Sunharon Roads, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 24 Oct 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  1.1
24 Oct 2018 14:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
24 Oct 2018 14:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1