Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (12 Oct 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 259 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 278 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

259 km/h Current

Up to 48.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 148 1.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 250 800 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 259 6 million No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 278 63.7 million 20 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 204 101 million 8.9 million Japan
Orange 11 07 Oct 2019 18:00 194 101.5 million 36.8 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Green 12 08 Oct 2019 00:00 269 104.5 million 44.6 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Green 13 08 Oct 2019 06:00 259 111.6 million 49 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
GREEN
2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
GREEN
3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
GREEN
4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
GREEN
5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
GREEN
6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, 152.4
GREEN
7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 53000 people no people 14.9, 151.1 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 15.1, 149.5 Guam
GREEN
9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 210000 people <1000 people 15.5, 148.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 259 210000 people no people 16.1, 146.7 Guam
GREEN
11 07 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 5 259 210000 people no people 16.5, 145 Guam
GREEN
12 08 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 250 210000 people no people 16.9, 143.7 Guam
GREEN
13 08 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 250 52000 people no people 17.7, 142.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
13 08 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 19.1, 140.7
GREEN
13 09 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 20.4, 139.6
GREEN
13 09 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 4 250 <1000 people no people 22, 138.7
GREEN
13 10 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 1200 people no people 23.9, 137.6
GREEN
13 11 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 3 204 95.9 million people 78000 people 27.7, 135.9 Japan
GREEN
13 12 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 2 167 111.1 million people 48.9 million people 32.6, 136.8 Japan
GREEN
13 13 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 39.6, 145.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Japan

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Kinki Japan 22.2 million people
Chubu Japan 5.1 million people
Kanto Japan 38.5 million people
Tohoku Japan 9.9 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Mitsune Shizuoka Japan City -
Kushimoto Wakayama Japan City -
Shingu Wakayama Japan City 31000 people
Matsuzaki Shizuoka Japan City -
Chikura Chiba Japan City -
Tateyama Chiba Japan City 49000 people
Ito Shizuoka Japan City 71000 people
Kakeoawa Shizuoka Japan City -
Hamamatsu Shizuoka Japan City 590000 people
Arai Shizuoka Japan City -
Shimada Shizuoka Japan City 75000 people
Yaizu Shizuoka Japan City 110000 people
Fujieda Shizuoka Japan City 130000 people
Ohara Chiba Japan City 19000 people
Shizuoka Shizuoka Japan Major city 700000 people
Atami Shizuoka Japan City 40000 people
Toyohashi Aichi Japan City 370000 people
Numazu Shizuoka Japan City 200000 people
Mishima Shizuoka Japan City 110000 people
Toyokawa Aichi Japan City 110000 people
Yokosuka Kanagawa Japan City 420000 people
Yoshiwara Shizuoka Japan City -
Odawara Kanagawa Japan City 190000 people
Kamakura Kanagawa Japan City 160000 people
Mobara Chiba Japan City 95000 people
Kisarazu Chiba Japan City 120000 people
Fujisawa Kanagawa Japan City 390000 people
Hiratsuka Kanagawa Japan City 250000 people
Fujinomiya Shizuoka Japan City 110000 people
Chigasaki Kanagawa Japan City 230000 people
Katakai Chiba Japan City -
Isehara Kanagawa Japan City 100000 people
Yokohama Kanagawa Japan Major city 3.5 million people
Atsugi Kanagawa Japan City 220000 people
Kawasaki Kanagawa Japan Major city 1.2 million people
Naruto Chiba Japan City 22000 people
Chiba Chiba Japan Major city 910000 people
Choshi Chiba Japan City 83000 people
Fuji-yoshida Yamanashi Japan City -
Tako Chiba Japan City -
Tokyo Tokyo Japan Capital 8.1 million people
Sakura Chiba Japan City 180000 people
Narita Chiba Japan City 100000 people
Funabashi Chiba Japan City 560000 people
Chofu Tokyo Japan City 200000 people
Ichikawa Chiba Japan City 450000 people
Hachioji Tokyo Japan City 530000 people
Kamagaya Chiba Japan City 100000 people
Tachikawa Tokyo Japan City 170000 people
Matsudo Chiba Japan City 460000 people
Omigawa Chiba Japan City 25000 people
Aoyagi Yamanashi Japan City -
Kodaira Tokyo Japan City 180000 people
Kofu Yamanashi Japan Major city 200000 people
Abiko Chiba Japan City 120000 people
Enzan Yamanashi Japan City 25000 people
Hanno Saitama Japan City 82000 people
Omiya Saitama Japan City 440000 people
Noda Chiba Japan City 110000 people
Kawagoe Saitama Japan City 330000 people
Sakado Saitama Japan City 95000 people
Saitama Saitama Japan Major city 1 million people
Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan City 170000 people
Koga Ibaraki Japan City 57000 people
Kumagaya Saitama Japan City 150000 people
Mito Ibaraki Japan Major city 240000 people
Shimodate Ibaraki Japan City 63000 people
Oyama Tochigi Japan City 140000 people
Honjo Saitama Japan City 61000 people
Isezaki Gunma Japan City -
Ashikaga Tochigi Japan City 150000 people
Kuji Ibaraki Japan City 35000 people
Takasaki Gunma Japan City 230000 people
Kiryu Gunma Japan City 110000 people
Maebashi Gunma Japan Major city 280000 people
Hitachi Ibaraki Japan City 180000 people
Utsunmiya Tochigi Japan City -
Karasuyama Tochigi Japan City 18000 people
Ueda Fukushima Japan City -
Onahama Fukushima Japan City -
Taira Fukushima Japan City -
Koriyama Fukushima Japan City 320000 people
Ishinomaki Miyagi Japan City 110000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Nikko 18 0
Hachijo Jima HAC 92 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Miyake Jima MYE 20 Civ. Paved Yes 3900
Kushimoto-Katsuura KUJ unknown 0
29 0
Oshima OIM 40 Civ. Paved Yes 3900
Tateyama 3 0
Shizuhama 7 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
Hamamatsu 46 Mil. Paved Yes 8300
Kisarazu 3 Mil. Paved Yes 6000
Fuji 686 0
Yokohama YOK unknown 0
Atsugi NJA 62 Mil. Paved Yes 7900
Tokyo Haneda International HND 7 Civ. Paved Yes 9800
Katsner AAF 109 Civ. Paved No 1900
Nashigahara 1001 0
Shimoshizu 30 0
Tokyo Narita International NRT 42 Civ. Paved Yes 13100
Chofu 41 Civ. Paved No 3200
Tachikawa 95 0
Shimofusa 30 Civ. Paved Yes 7300
Yokota AFB OKO 139 Mil. Paved Yes 11000
Ryugasaki South 2 0
Ryugasaki 2 0
313 0
Iruma 91 Mil. Paved Yes 6500
26 0
Chiba-ken 19 0
Honda 12 0
Hyakuri 32 Mil. Paved Yes 8800
Onishi 20 0
Shimo Kolzumi 30 0
Suzumenomiya 82 0
Utsunomiya QUT 102 Civ. Paved Yes 5500
Otawara 201 0
Fukushima FKS 372 Civ. Paved Yes 8200

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Guguan Island Northern Mariana Islands
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands
Yaene Japan
Mikura Japan
Miyake Japan
Kozu Island Japan
Kushimoto Japan
Nii Japan
Uraga JPURG Japan
Shingu JPSHN Japan
Shimoda JPSMD Japan
Oshima JPOSM Japan
Omaezaki JPOMZ Japan
Tateyama JPTTY Japan
Hamamatsu JPHMM Japan
Toba JPTOB Japan
Katsuura Ko Japan
Toyohashi JPTHS Japan
Atsumi JPATM Japan
Shimizu JPSMZ Japan
Kurihama JPKRH Japan
Numazu JPNUM Japan
Tagonour JPTGO Japan
Yokosuka JPYOS Japan
Gamagori JPGAM Japan
Kisarazu JPKZU Japan
Neghisi JPNGI Japan
Yokohama JPYOK Japan
Goi JPGOI Japan
Kawasaki JPKWS Japan
Chiba JPCHB Japan
Anegasaki JPANE Japan
Choshi JPCHO Japan
Katunan Ko Japan
Ogasawara JPOGA Japan
Tokyo JPTYO Japan
Kashima JPKSM Japan
Hitachi JPHTC Japan
Onahama JPONA Japan
Soma JPSMA Japan
Ishinomaki JPISM Japan
Onagawa JPONG Japan

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Kamiji Kamiji Kamijigawa 1972
Matsukawako Okuno Itookawa 1989
Sakuma Sakuma Okuzuregawa 1990
Hattachiike Hattachiike Toyokawa 1966
Kameyamako Kameyama Obitsugawa 1980
Funagiradamuko Funagira Tenryugawa 1977
Inasako Miyakodagawa Miyakodagawa 1986
Sasama Sasamagawa Sasamagawa 1960
Kori Kori Korigawa 1972
Takatakiko Takataki Yorogawa 1990
Akibako Akiha Tenryugawa 1958
Komanbachoseichi Komanba Toyokawa 1968
Iizumishusuizeki Iizumishusuizeki Sakawagawa 1973
Horaiko Ure Uregawa 1958
Sakumako Sakuma Tenryugawa 1956
Yamakura Yamakura Yamakuragawa 1964
Ikawako Ikawa Oigawa 1957
Mikawako Habu Tomoegawa 1962
Tenshiko Kakimoto Sanogawa 1952
Midoriko Shintoyone Onyugawa 1972
Misakuboko Misakubo Misakubogawa 1969
Tanzawako Miho Kawauchigawa 1978
Hatanagiko Hatanagidaiichi Oigawa 1962
Hiraoka Hiraoka Tenryugawa 1951
Miyagaseko Miyagase Nakatsugawa 2001
Amahatako Amahata Amehatagawa 1967
Tsukuiko Shiroyama Sagamigawa 1964
Sagamiko Sagami Sagamigawa 1947
Ono Ono Yatagawa 1914
Naradako Nishiyama Hayakawa 1957
Tamako Murayamashimo Tamagawa 2008
Tamako Murayamakami Tamagawa 1924
Sayamako Yamaguchi Tamagawa 2002
Kasumigaura Kasumigaura-Kaihatsu Tonegawa 1995
Chiyodako Maruyamatameike Obinagawa 1936
Okutamako Ogohchi Tamagawa 1957
Miyazawako Miyazawatameike Koazegawa 1941
Nosenko Arakawa Arakawa 1985
Naguriko Arima Arimagawa 1985
Hiroseko Hirose Fuefukigawa 1974
Chichibuko Futase Arakawa 1961
Miyukiko Gongendochosetsuchi Nakagawa 1991
Yanakako Wataraseyusuichi Watarasegawa 1989
Kannako Shimokubo Kannagawa 1968
Oshioko Oshio Nanmokugawa 1968
Jajanboike Kozogawa Kozogawa 1985
Nyuko Nyu Nyukawa 1952
Narusawako Narusawa Harunashirakawa 1950
Kusakiko Kusaki Watarasegawa 1976
Mizunuma Mizunuma Hanazonokawa 1966
Chuzenjiko Chuzenji Daiyagawa 1998
Higashikoyako Nishiarakawa Nishiarakawa 1967
Shitokiko Shitoki Shitokigawa 1983
Terayama Terayama Miyakawa 1984
Imaichichoseichi Imaichi Togawa 1988
Kuriyamachoseichi Kuriyama Nebesawagawa 1988
Takashibako Takashiba Samekawa 1961
Kurobe Kurobe Kinugawa 1912
Yashioko Kawaji Kunugawa 1983
Kawamatako Kawamata Kinugawa 1966
Ikariko Ikari Ojikagawa 1956
Shiobara Shiobara Hokigawa 1978
Sabigawa Sabigawa Sabigawa 1994
Miyamako Miyama Nakagawa 1973
Bobatako Sengozawa Kitasugawa 1974
Hatoriko Hatori Tsurunumagawa 1955
Fujinumachosuichi Fujimuna Ebanagawa 1948
Sakashita Sakashita Okawaragawa 1973
Fukadachoseichi Fukadachoseichi Tadanogawa 1982
Ogaki Ogaki Ukedogawa 1985
Yokokawa Yokokawa Otagawa 1983
Takanokura Takanokura Mizunashigawa 1975
Tamanotameike Tamano Udagawa 1945

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.7m in Tokyo, Japan. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2019 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (1610 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 31 of 12 Oct 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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