Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for PAMELA-21 in Mexico from 10 Oct 2021 09:00 UTC to 12 Oct 2021 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21

in Mexico

12 Oct 2021 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	CE-2021-000162-SOM
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	130 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	130 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (13 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 13 Oct 2021 12:00 - 14 Oct 2021 00:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	176 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	130 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

176 km/h Current Max.

Up to 740000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	10 Oct 2021 09:00	176	2.5 million	230 thousand	Mexico
2	10 Oct 2021 15:00	176	2.6 million	230 thousand	Mexico
3	10 Oct 2021 21:00	176	3 million	360 thousand	Mexico
4	11 Oct 2021 03:00	185	2.9 million	250 thousand	Mexico
5	11 Oct 2021 09:00	185	5 million	200 thousand	Mexico
6	11 Oct 2021 15:00	194	4.4 million	160 thousand	Mexico
7	11 Oct 2021 21:00	185	5.8 million	490 thousand	Mexico
8	12 Oct 2021 03:00	176	5.8 million	740 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	10 Oct 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.3, -102.9
2	10 Oct 2021 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.8, -104.7
3	10 Oct 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.5, -105.9
4	11 Oct 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.9, -106.8
5	11 Oct 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16.2, -107.6
6	11 Oct 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.8, -108.1
7	11 Oct 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17.2, -108.5
8	12 Oct 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17.9, -108.9
8	12 Oct 2021 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	19.2, -109.1
8	13 Oct 2021 00:00	Category 2	157	<1000 people	2 million people	21, -108.5
8	13 Oct 2021 12:00	Category 2	176	740000 people	4.7 million people	23.1, -106.9
8	14 Oct 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.6 million people	26.1, -103.3	Mexico
8	14 Oct 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	29.5, -99.5	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Sinaloa	Mexico
Durango	Mexico
Coahuila	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mazatlan	Sinaloa	Mexico	Major city	330000 people
Villa Unión	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	13000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
General Rafael Buelna International	MZT	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8800
Rancho El Durangueno		2500				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mazatlan	MXMZT	Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (20 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 13 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Oct 2021 12:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.5
	13 Oct 2021 12:00	Florida	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2021 12:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2021 12:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2021 12:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2021 12:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2021 12:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 13:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 14:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 12:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 13:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 12:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 13:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 13:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 13:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 12:00	Barron	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 15:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2021 10:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	13 Oct 2021 15:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	13 Oct 2021 15:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.