Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23
in Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Japan, China

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Japan, China
Exposed population 170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 296 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (24 May 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Guam)
Landfall between
23 May 2023 18:00 - 24 May 2023 06:00

in Guam

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 259 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 296 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

259 km/h Current Max.

Up to 170000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 20 May 2023 00:00 167 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 2 20 May 2023 06:00 157 230 thousand 30 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 3 20 May 2023 12:00 167 230 thousand 50 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 4 20 May 2023 18:00 167 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
Orange 5 21 May 2023 00:00 176 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
Orange 6 21 May 2023 06:00 167 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
Orange 7 21 May 2023 12:00 176 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
Orange 8 21 May 2023 18:00 176 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
Red 9 22 May 2023 00:00 185 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
Red 10 22 May 2023 06:00 204 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
Red 11 22 May 2023 12:00 194 230 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 12 22 May 2023 18:00 222 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
Red 13 23 May 2023 00:00 231 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
Red 14 23 May 2023 06:00 259 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 May 2023 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people 2400 people 5.4, 149.1
GREEN
2 20 May 2023 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 2400 people 5.7, 149.2
GREEN
3 20 May 2023 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 4400 people 5.7, 149.3
GREEN
4 20 May 2023 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 4400 people 6.1, 149.2
GREEN
5 21 May 2023 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 5500 people 6.8, 149.2
GREEN
6 21 May 2023 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 6000 people 7.6, 148.7
GREEN
7 21 May 2023 12:00 Category 1 130 <1000 people 2700 people 8, 148.3
GREEN
8 21 May 2023 18:00 Category 1 139 no people <1000 people 8.5, 148.1
GREEN
9 22 May 2023 00:00 Category 2 157 no people <1000 people 9.1, 147.7
GREEN
10 22 May 2023 06:00 Category 2 167 no people <1000 people 9.5, 147
GREEN
11 22 May 2023 12:00 Category 2 167 no people <1000 people 10, 146.9
GREEN
12 22 May 2023 18:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 10.5, 146.8
GREEN
13 23 May 2023 00:00 Category 4 213 no people 170000 people 11.2, 146.9
GREEN
14 23 May 2023 06:00 Category 4 250 no people 220000 people 11.8, 146.5
RED
14 23 May 2023 18:00 Category 5 259 170000 people 220000 people 12.8, 145.6
RED
14 24 May 2023 06:00 Category 4 250 170000 people 220000 people 13.5, 144.5 Guam
GREEN
14 24 May 2023 18:00 Category 4 241 no people 180000 people 14, 143.2
GREEN
14 25 May 2023 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 14.4, 141.4
GREEN
14 26 May 2023 06:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 15.4, 136.9
GREEN
14 27 May 2023 06:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 16.7, 131.9
GREEN
14 28 May 2023 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 18.5, 128.2
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Guam 170000 people

Provinces

Region Province Country Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Guam Guam 170000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
Apra Harbor Guam

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Inarajan, Guam. This height is estimated for 24 May 2023 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (32 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 23 May 2023 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 May 2023 02:00 Inarajan Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Asbeco Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Adacao Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Agat Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Umatac Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Merizo Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Piti Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Asan Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Hagatna Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Sinajana Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Talofofo Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Mongmong Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Ylig Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Yona Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Tamuning Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 02:00 Barrigada Guam  0.8
24 May 2023 03:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 Oceanview Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 Dededo Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 South Acres Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 Ipapao Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 Upi Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 Gayinero Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 Asatdas Guam  0.7
24 May 2023 03:00 Lupog Guam  0.7