Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAWAN-19 in Somalia, Ethiopia from 03 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC to 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19

in Somalia, Ethiopia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (03 Dec 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	58 km/h	0.3 m	135 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	0.3 m	583 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 03 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	03 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Somalia	643
50-100 mm	Yemen, Somalia	115,457	+
	Yemen	28,090
	Somalia	87,367

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	03 Dec 2019 00:00	246	-		-	-	-	-	-	Other countries
2	03 Dec 2019 06:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	295	Few people			-	-	-	-	Yemen, Somalia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Baarbacadle, Somalia. This height is estimated for 03 Dec 2019 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Dec 2019 13:00	Baarbacadle	Somalia	0.3
	03 Dec 2019 13:00	Eyl	Somalia	0.3
	03 Dec 2019 13:00	Daga Laha Uein	Somalia	0.3
	03 Dec 2019 13:30	Sala Gon	Somalia	0.2
	03 Dec 2019 13:30	Hurdiyo	Somalia	0.2
	03 Dec 2019 13:30	Xaafuun	Somalia	0.2
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Takhushih	Somalia	0.2
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Saylac	Somalia	0.2
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.2
	03 Dec 2019 17:30	Beylu	Eritrea	0.2
	03 Dec 2019 13:15	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.2
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Loyado	Djibouti	0.2
	03 Dec 2019 14:30	Tadjoura	Djibouti	0.2
	03 Dec 2019 14:30	Eddi Gellei	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 14:30	Bola Cohuan	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 14:45	Ascira	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 16:00	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 18:00	Boho	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 18:00	Wareegsimo	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 18:00	Bereeda	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:15	Ceelbacduur	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:15	Ceel Dhahanaan	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:15	'Ag	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:30	Hen Daier	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:30	Hobyo	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Djibouti	Djibouti	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 13:15	Cadayo	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:30	Gaalacoodday	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 17:45	Beraisole	Eritrea	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 13:00	Bargaal	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 17:45	Behld	Eritrea	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 17:45	Alela	Eritrea	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 17:45	Aseb	Eritrea	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 15:00	Dauli	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 18:00	Qashlu	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 18:00	Qadub	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 18:00	Hadiboh	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:30	Denouda Digdiglei	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:15	Bandarbeyla	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 13:30	Buyut al Muhamirah	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 13:30	Al Fazah	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Fagal	Djibouti	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Khor Angar	Djibouti	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Mayyun	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:30	Garahadde	Somalia	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 17:00	Al Khawkhah	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 17:00	Maushij	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 17:00	Jirdan	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 13:45	Al Ghulayfiqah	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Murad	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 15:30	Al Hajaf	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:45	Midi	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 12:45	Al Kharamilah	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 17:00	Al Butays	Yemen	0.1
	03 Dec 2019 17:00	Yakhtul	Yemen	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.