Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAWAN-19 in Somalia, Ethiopia from 03 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC to 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19

in Somalia, Ethiopia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Somalia, Ethiopia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (05 Dec 16:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.2 m	17 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	0.3 m	583 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

97 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Somalia, Ethiopia	46,495	+
	Somalia	46,485
	Ethiopia	10

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	03 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	03 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	04 Dec 2019 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	05 Dec 2019 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	05 Dec 2019 12:00	76	-		-	-	-	-	-	Somalia, Ethiopia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Somalia, Ethiopia	321,879	+
	Somalia	272,927
	Ethiopia	48,952
50-100 mm	Somalia, Ethiopia	680,452	+
	Somalia	529,282
	Ethiopia	151,170

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	03 Dec 2019 00:00	246	-		-	-	-	-	-	Other countries
2	03 Dec 2019 06:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	03 Dec 2019 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 00:00	182	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	04 Dec 2019 06:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	04 Dec 2019 12:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	04 Dec 2019 18:00	103	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	05 Dec 2019 00:00	168	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	05 Dec 2019 06:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	05 Dec 2019 12:00	249	320 thousand			-	-	-	-	Somalia, Ethiopia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Tadjoura, Djibouti. This height is estimated for 05 Dec 2019 16:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Dec 2019 16:30	Tadjoura	Djibouti	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:30	Baarbacadle	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:30	Eyl	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:30	Daga Laha Uein	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Loyado	Djibouti	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Takhushih	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Saylac	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 16:30	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	'Ag	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Midi	Yemen	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Al Kharamilah	Yemen	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Hurdiyo	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Xaafuun	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Al Madasikah	Yemen	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 07:00	Eddi Gellei	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 07:00	Bola Cohuan	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 19:15	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 16:00	Djibouti	Djibouti	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Boho	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Wareegsimo	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Bereeda	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 18:45	Cadayo	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 16:00	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Aiesloho	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Mach	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Tooxin	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:15	Cal Marthal	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:15	Dauli	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Ascira	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 17:45	Beylu	Eritrea	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Bargaal	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Kamaran	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Sayfaf	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Al Jazirah	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Qurayyah	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Al Khawbah	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Ibn Abbas	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Fagal	Djibouti	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Khor Angar	Djibouti	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Mayyun	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Al Hajaf	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Al Bahiyah	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Murad	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Al Luyhayyah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Al Qahmah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Musaykah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Sair	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Haima	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Fugwa	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Sajid	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Humr	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 06:30	Bandarbeyla	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Obock	Djibouti	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:30	Dhubab	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:15	Darimoh	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Khatib	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Bu Tawq	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Farasan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Al 'Urj	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Ceel Dhahanaan	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:30	Quddam	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Jabanah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 16:00	Gaalacoodday	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 23:45	Ceelbacduur	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Madinat ash Shab	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	'Imran	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Qa'wa	Yemen	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Al Hudaydah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:15	Sala Gon	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Hajambar	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	'Arid	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:30	Hen Daier	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Al Madaya	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Geeri	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 16:15	Ari Adeso	Somalia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Jizan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Al Karbus	Saudi Arabia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.