Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAKE-20
in Australia
08 Jan 2020 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAKE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (08 Jan 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 65 km/h 0.4 m 97 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 94 km/h 1.1 m 449 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2020 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia586 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Jan 2020 18:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 06 Jan 2020 00:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 06 Jan 2020 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 06 Jan 2020 12:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 5 06 Jan 2020 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 6 07 Jan 2020 00:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 7 07 Jan 2020 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 8 07 Jan 2020 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 9 07 Jan 2020 18:00 61 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 10 08 Jan 2020 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 11 08 Jan 2020 06:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2020 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmAustralia04 
250-500 mmAustralia245 
100-250 mmAustralia4,993 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia5,252,285
+
Indonesia5,250,374 
Australia1,911 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Jan 2020 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 2 06 Jan 2020 00:00 136 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 3 06 Jan 2020 06:00 87 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 4 06 Jan 2020 12:00 105 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 5 06 Jan 2020 18:00 77 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 6 07 Jan 2020 00:00 92 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 7 07 Jan 2020 06:00 67 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 8 07 Jan 2020 12:00 132 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 9 07 Jan 2020 18:00 89 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 10 08 Jan 2020 00:00 112 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 11 08 Jan 2020 06:00 527 5 thousand
- - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 08 Jan 2020 13:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2020 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
08 Jan 2020 13:30 Derby Australia  0.4
08 Jan 2020 14:15 Thangoo Australia  0.3
08 Jan 2020 14:30 Broome Australia  0.3
08 Jan 2020 14:30 Waterbank Australia  0.3
08 Jan 2020 13:30 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 16:00 Pardoo Australia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 16:00 Condon Australia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 21:15 Blimbing Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 21:15 Dadapan Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 21:15 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 21:15 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 21:15 Soega Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 21:15 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 21:15 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 21:15 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 21:15 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 21:15 Banjoebiroe Indonesia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 09:00 Kollan I Australia  0.2
09 Jan 2020 00:30 Port Hedland Australia  0.1
08 Jan 2020 16:00 Muntjar Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:15 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
08 Jan 2020 08:45 Pender Australia  0.1
08 Jan 2020 13:15 Cupel Indonesia  0.1
08 Jan 2020 13:15 Banjuwedang Indonesia  0.1
08 Jan 2020 13:15 Prancak Indonesia  0.1
08 Jan 2020 13:15 Negara Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:15 Aermata Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:15 Klampis Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Sapulu Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Sangkapura Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Tlagabiru Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Banjoeates Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 01:00 Tambak Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 23:15 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 23:45 Laboean Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 23:30 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 23:30 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1