Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAKE-20
in Australia
05 Jan 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAKE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (06 Jan 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 76 km/h 0.9 m 242 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 126 km/h 0.9 m 539 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

126 km/h

Up to 9 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia8,812 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Jan 2020 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 05 Jan 2020 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia1,575 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Australia869,941
+
Indonesia842,313 
Australia27,628 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia9,178,343
+
Indonesia8,744,696 
Timor-Leste431,870 
Australia1,777 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Jan 2020 00:00 309 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia
Blue 2 05 Jan 2020 12:00 397 870 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Jan 2020 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Jan 2020 04:00 Derby Australia  0.9
05 Jan 2020 22:15 Kollan I Australia  0.6
07 Jan 2020 02:15 Thangoo Australia  0.6
07 Jan 2020 02:00 Broome Australia  0.5
06 Jan 2020 05:00 Pender Australia  0.4
07 Jan 2020 03:00 Waterbank Australia  0.4
07 Jan 2020 02:30 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.4
08 Jan 2020 08:15 Pardoo Australia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 14:00 Blimbing Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 14:00 Dadapan Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 14:00 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 14:00 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 14:00 Soega Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 14:00 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 14:00 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 14:00 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 14:00 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 14:00 Banjoebiroe Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 15:00 Karratha Australia  0.2
06 Jan 2020 06:30 Port Hedland Australia  0.1
05 Jan 2020 16:15 Wickham Australia  0.1
05 Jan 2020 16:15 Point Samson Australia  0.1
05 Jan 2020 16:15 Cossack Australia  0.1
08 Jan 2020 08:15 Condon Australia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 08:45 Mardie Australia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 09:15 East Lewis I Australia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 09:15 Dampier Australia  0.1
05 Jan 2020 16:45 Muntjar Indonesia  0.1