Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BLAKE-20 in Australia from 05 Jan 2020 18:00 UTC to 08 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAKE-20

in Australia

06 Jan 2020 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAKE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	83 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.9 m (06 Jan 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	83 km/h	0.9 m	161 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	126 km/h	0.9 m	539 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

126 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	19,415

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	05 Jan 2020 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	05 Jan 2020 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	06 Jan 2020 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Australia	1,259
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Australia	1,041,935	+
	Indonesia	1,015,544
	Australia	26,391
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia	9,169,444	+
	Indonesia	9,159,174
	Timor-Leste	7,618
	Australia	2,652

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	05 Jan 2020 00:00	309	Few people	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia
2	05 Jan 2020 12:00	242	Few people	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
3	06 Jan 2020 00:00	436	1 million		-	-	-	Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.9m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Jan 2020 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Jan 2020 06:15	Derby	Australia	0.9
	06 Jan 2020 05:15	Pender	Australia	0.6
	06 Jan 2020 02:15	Kollan I	Australia	0.5
	06 Jan 2020 03:15	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Jan 2020 03:15	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Jan 2020 03:15	Banyuwangi	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Jan 2020 03:15	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Jan 2020 03:15	Soega	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Jan 2020 03:15	Gilimanuk	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Jan 2020 03:15	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Jan 2020 03:15	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Jan 2020 03:15	Tjandikesuma	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Jan 2020 03:15	Banjoebiroe	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Jan 2020 07:00	Wickham	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 07:00	Point Samson	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 07:00	Cossack	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 08:45	Mardie	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 04:45	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 08:30	Karratha	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 06:30	Port Hedland	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 09:30	Waterbank	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 09:30	Broome	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 09:30	East Lewis I	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 09:30	Dampier	Australia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 08:30	Muntjar	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.