Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAKE-20
in Australia
08 Jan 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAKE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (08 Jan 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 65 km/h 0.4 m 116 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 126 km/h 0.9 m 539 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

126 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia349 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Jan 2020 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 05 Jan 2020 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 06 Jan 2020 00:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 06 Jan 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Jan 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Jan 2020 12:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 7 08 Jan 2020 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 8 08 Jan 2020 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia172 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Australia219,796
+
Indonesia218,175 
Australia1,621 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia3,486,711
+
Indonesia3,479,717 
Timor-Leste720 
Australia6,274 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Jan 2020 00:00 309 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia
Blue 2 05 Jan 2020 12:00 242 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 3 06 Jan 2020 00:00 161 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 4 06 Jan 2020 12:00 108 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 5 07 Jan 2020 00:00 185 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 6 07 Jan 2020 12:00 166 360 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 7 08 Jan 2020 00:00 106 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 8 08 Jan 2020 12:00 534 220 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 08 Jan 2020 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
08 Jan 2020 13:00 Derby Australia  0.4
08 Jan 2020 13:30 Thangoo Australia  0.3
08 Jan 2020 13:45 Broome Australia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 19:45 Pardoo Australia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 23:30 Waterbank Australia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 19:30 Condon Australia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 23:30 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
09 Jan 2020 02:15 Aermata Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:15 Klampis Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:15 Sapulu Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:30 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:15 Tlagabiru Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:15 Banjoeates Indonesia  0.1
08 Jan 2020 19:45 Port Hedland Australia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:15 Kelapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:45 Sokabana Indonesia  0.1
08 Jan 2020 18:45 Kollan I Australia  0.1
08 Jan 2020 18:45 Pender Australia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 03:15 Ambunten-timu Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 03:15 Belukares Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 03:15 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:45 Sangkapura Indonesia  0.1
11 Jan 2020 08:00 Mardie Australia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 04:15 Tambak Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 10:45 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 10:45 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 10:45 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 10:45 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 10:45 Soega Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 10:45 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 10:45 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 10:45 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 10:45 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 10:45 Banjoebiroe Indonesia  0.1