Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KARINA-20 Off-shore from 13 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC to 17 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-20

Off-shore

15 Sep 2020 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	90 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (16 Sep 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	90 km/h	0.5 m	191 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	90 km/h	0.5 m	339 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

90 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	13 Sep 2020 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	13 Sep 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	14 Sep 2020 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	14 Sep 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	14 Sep 2020 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	15 Sep 2020 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	15 Sep 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico	173,315

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	13 Sep 2020 00:00	136	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 06:00	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	13 Sep 2020 18:00	105	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 00:00	70	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	14 Sep 2020 06:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	14 Sep 2020 12:00	172	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	14 Sep 2020 18:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	15 Sep 2020 00:00	88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	15 Sep 2020 06:00	237	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Molino, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Sep 2020 21:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	Molino	Mexico	0.5
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.5
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.5
	17 Sep 2020 07:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.4
	17 Sep 2020 07:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.4
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2020 21:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 23:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 11:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 01:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	17 Sep 2020 08:15	El Barril	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 23:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 11:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:15	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 10:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 10:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 10:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 10:45	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 10:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:15	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:15	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 11:45	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 12:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 16:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 16:30	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 16:30	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 10:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 10:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 10:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 12:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 04:30	Aguaje	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 04:30	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 11:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 11:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 23:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	18 Sep 2020 00:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 10:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 18:45	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 18:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 18:45	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 19:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 18:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 12:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 23:45	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 23:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 12:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 12:30	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 19:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 18:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 23:30	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 23:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 06:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 06:00	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 10:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 10:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 19:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 19:15	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 12:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 20:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 08:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 00:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 00:15	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 00:15	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 00:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 00:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 00:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 18:45	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 18:15	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 00:30	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 23:45	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2020 06:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 23:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 23:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.