Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIE-20 Off-shore from 29 Sep 2020 09:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20

Off-shore

05 Oct 2020 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	83 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (07 Oct 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	83 km/h	0.4 m	144 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	180 km/h	0.4 m	792 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

180 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 05 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2020 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Oct 2020 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2020 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2020 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2020 18:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Oct 2020 00:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2020 06:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Oct 2020 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	02 Oct 2020 18:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	03 Oct 2020 00:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	03 Oct 2020 06:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	03 Oct 2020 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	03 Oct 2020 18:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	04 Oct 2020 00:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	04 Oct 2020 06:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	04 Oct 2020 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	04 Oct 2020 18:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	05 Oct 2020 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	05 Oct 2020 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	05 Oct 2020 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 05 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	145	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	152	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	152	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2020 18:00	164	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Oct 2020 00:00	98	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2020 06:00	203	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2020 12:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2020 18:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Oct 2020 00:00	198	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2020 06:00	207	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Oct 2020 12:00	211	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	02 Oct 2020 18:00	189	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	03 Oct 2020 00:00	170	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	03 Oct 2020 06:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	03 Oct 2020 12:00	149	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	03 Oct 2020 18:00	172	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	04 Oct 2020 00:00	178	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	04 Oct 2020 06:00	200	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	04 Oct 2020 12:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	04 Oct 2020 18:00	170	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	05 Oct 2020 00:00	159	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	05 Oct 2020 06:00	141	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	05 Oct 2020 12:00	345	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Cabo Tepoca, Mexico. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2020 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Oct 2020 06:15	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	05 Oct 2020 22:45	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	07 Oct 2020 06:15	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 22:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 10:45	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:30	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 18:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 18:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 07:45	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:30	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:30	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:30	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 10:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2020 19:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2020 19:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:45	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2020 07:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2020 01:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 08:45	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2020 07:30	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2020 07:30	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:45	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 21:15	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 21:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 08:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 08:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 22:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2020 07:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Barron	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 22:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2020 07:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 08:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 19:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2020 07:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2020 07:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2020 07:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 07:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 07:45	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 07:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 07:45	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 22:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 10:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 10:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	San Telmo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 09:30	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 23:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 07:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 07:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 07:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 07:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 07:15	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2020 01:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 10:30	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 22:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 22:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 22:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 19:30	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 07:30	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 19:15	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 19:15	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 23:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 07:30	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 19:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 19:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 10:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 07:30	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 21:15	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 21:15	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 10:00	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 19:15	Maruata	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2020 19:30	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 07:30	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.