Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JOBO-21 in Tanzania, Seychelles from 21 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC to 24 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOBO-21

in Tanzania, Seychelles

22 Apr 2021 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JOBO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Mozambique, Comoros
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	97 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (22 Apr 13:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	97 km/h	0.2 m	255 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	137 km/h	0.2 m	699 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mozambique, Comoros	44,815	+
	Mozambique	06
	Comoros	44,809

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	21 Apr 2021 00:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
2	21 Apr 2021 06:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
3	21 Apr 2021 12:00	137	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
4	21 Apr 2021 18:00	130	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
5	22 Apr 2021 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	22 Apr 2021 06:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	22 Apr 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Comoros

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	Comoros	63,036
250-500 mm	Comoros	279,293
100-250 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros	139,135	+
	Tanzania	8,861
	Mozambique	26,866
	Comoros	103,408
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros	508,266	+
	Tanzania	159,775
	Mozambique	280,693
	Comoros	67,798

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	21 Apr 2021 00:00	202	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
2	21 Apr 2021 06:00	229	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
3	21 Apr 2021 12:00	353	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
4	21 Apr 2021 18:00	651	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
5	22 Apr 2021 00:00	343	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	22 Apr 2021 06:00	315	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	22 Apr 2021 12:00	800	480 thousand					-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Marovoha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Apr 2021 13:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Apr 2021 13:45	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Apr 2021 13:45	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Apr 2021 13:45	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Apr 2021 13:45	Singalana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Apr 2021 13:45	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Apr 2021 13:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Apr 2021 13:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Apr 2021 13:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Apr 2021 13:45	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Dondo	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 17:45	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:00	Accua	Mayotte	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:00	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:00	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:00	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:00	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:00	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:00	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:00	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 16:15	Mikindani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 16:15	Naumba	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 16:15	Mtwara	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 16:15	Msangamkuu	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Salale	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 18:30	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:15	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:15	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:15	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	23 Apr 2021 03:30	Ambalihabe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Apr 2021 03:30	Ambodizaotra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Apr 2021 03:30	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Apr 2021 03:30	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 23:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 23:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 15:45	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 15:45	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 15:45	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 15:45	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 15:45	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 15:45	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 14:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.