Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CARLOTTA-18 in Mexico from 14 Jun 2018 21:00 UTC to 19 Jun 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CARLOTTA-18

in Mexico

14 Jun 2018 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CARLOTTA-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	66 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (14 Jun 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	66 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
ECMWF Overall	47 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

47 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Jun 2018 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	17,011

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	14 Jun 2018 00:00	66	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 14 Jun 2018 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	14 Jun 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 14 Jun 2018 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Jun 2018 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	14 Jun 2018 11:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	14 Jun 2018 11:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.3
	14 Jun 2018 11:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.3
	14 Jun 2018 03:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.3
	14 Jun 2018 03:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.3
	14 Jun 2018 16:15	Chiltepec	Mexico	0.3
	14 Jun 2018 16:15	Hidalgo	Mexico	0.3
	14 Jun 2018 02:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 02:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 03:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 03:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 03:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 03:15	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 03:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 01:45	Barron	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 01:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 01:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 01:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 02:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 02:45	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 05:00	Las Barrillas	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 19:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 19:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 10:45	Coatzacoalcos	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 19:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 19:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 00:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 00:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 07:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 19:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 19:15	San Lucas	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 18:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 18:45	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 19:30	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 06:30	Buen Pais	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 06:30	Alvarado	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 06:30	Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 01:45	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 01:45	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 01:45	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 01:45	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 19:15	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.2
	14 Jun 2018 19:15	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 12:15	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 12:45	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 12:45	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 12:45	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 02:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 03:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 03:15	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 18:45	La Verde	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 18:45	El Tulate	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 18:45	Tahuesco	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 18:45	Nueva Venecia	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 09:00	El Naranjo	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 09:00	La Barrita	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 09:00	San Jose	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 09:00	Iztapa	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 04:00	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 08:00	Tonala	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 13:00	El Tular	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 13:00	Cabo Rojito	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:30	Boqueron	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:30	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 03:45	Anton Lizardo	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 03:45	Salinas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 11:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 05:15	La Concepion	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 05:15	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 18:15	Salina Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 15:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 15:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 15:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 09:15	Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 09:15	Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 23:45	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 23:45	La Majada	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 00:15	Puerto de San Benito	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 18:45	Barra Madre Vieja	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 18:45	Tecojate	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 18:45	San Jose Rama Blanca	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 18:45	Sipacate	Guatemala	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 02:15	Monte de Oro	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 02:15	San Pedro	Mexico	0.1
	14 Jun 2018 02:15	Francisco I. Madero	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 00:15	Ocos	Guatemala	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.