Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CARLOTTA-18 in Mexico from 14 Jun 2018 21:00 UTC to 19 Jun 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CARLOTTA-18

in Mexico

15 Jun 2018 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CARLOTTA-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	64 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (15 Jun 05:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	64 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
ECMWF Overall	47 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

47 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Jun 2018 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	02

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 Jun 2018 00:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 Jun 2018 12:00	64	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Jun 2018 00:00	64	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 15 Jun 2018 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	14 Jun 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 Jun 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Jun 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Jun 2018 05:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Jun 2018 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 Jun 2018 05:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 05:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 05:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 04:45	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 04:45	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 04:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 04:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 04:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 01:45	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 01:45	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 01:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 02:30	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2018 02:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 03:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 11:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2018 18:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2018 18:15	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2018 18:15	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2018 17:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 05:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 05:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 05:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 22:45	Boqueron	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 22:45	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2018 01:45	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	15 Jun 2018 11:30	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2018 17:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 17:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 00:15	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 08:00	Chiltepec	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 08:00	Hidalgo	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 02:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 18:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 03:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 04:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 01:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 20:15	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 20:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 02:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 00:15	Buenavista	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 00:15	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 03:45	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 07:15	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 04:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 18:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 01:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 03:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 02:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 00:45	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 06:45	Astillero	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 06:45	San Pedro	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 06:45	Barra de la Gabina	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 06:45	Las Champas	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 07:15	Arista	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:15	Pesqueria	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:15	San Dionisio del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:15	La Majada	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:45	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:45	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 03:45	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 03:45	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 23:30	Nueva Venecia	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 23:30	Huitzitzil	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:30	La Concepion	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 14:45	Agua Dulce	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 21:00	Tahuesco	Guatemala	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 00:00	Ocos	Guatemala	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 00:00	El Chico	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 06:45	La Verde	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 06:45	El Tulate	Guatemala	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 06:45	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 15:45	Tecojate	Guatemala	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 15:45	San Jose Rama Blanca	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:00	Acapan	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 22:00	Champerico	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 16:00	El Naranjo	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 16:00	La Barrita	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 16:00	San Jose	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 16:00	Iztapa	Guatemala	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 03:30	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	16 Jun 2018 15:30	Sipacate	Guatemala	0.1
	15 Jun 2018 00:15	Puerto de San Benito	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.