Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KARINA-20 Off-shore from 13 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC to 17 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-20

Off-shore

15 Sep 2020 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (16 Sep 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	76 km/h	0.4 m	273 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	79 km/h	0.4 m	773 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	12 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	14 Sep 2020 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	15 Sep 2020 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Mexico	383
100-250 mm	Mexico	21,508
50-100 mm	Mexico	8,604

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	12 Sep 2020 12:00	305	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 00:00	687	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	388	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
4	14 Sep 2020 00:00	366	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 12:00	276	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
6	15 Sep 2020 00:00	381	20 thousand				-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Molino, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Sep 2020 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Sep 2020 20:00	Molino	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 20:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 19:30	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 19:30	Tecomate	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 19:30	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 19:15	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.4
	16 Sep 2020 20:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2020 00:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 08:30	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2020 13:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 09:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 20:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 20:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.3
	16 Sep 2020 20:15	El Barril	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 22:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 20:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 22:15	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 13:45	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 09:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 08:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 08:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 08:45	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 21:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 21:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 21:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 09:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 09:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 01:45	Aguaje	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 01:45	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 09:15	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:30	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 08:30	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 20:45	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 20:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 20:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 02:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 02:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 02:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 09:15	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 20:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 21:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 21:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 21:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 20:30	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 21:15	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 08:45	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 08:45	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 20:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 21:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 20:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 20:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 03:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 20:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 21:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 20:30	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 22:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 20:15	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 20:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 20:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 21:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 21:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 08:30	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 22:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:30	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:30	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 09:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 02:30	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 06:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 20:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:15	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 20:45	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 20:45	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 20:45	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 22:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 08:15	El Tule	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.