Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDA-21
in United States, Cuba
27 Aug 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDA-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, Cuba, Cayman Islands
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (27 Aug 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 83 km/h 0.4 m 244 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 252 km/h 3.1 m 541 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

252 km/h

Up to 3.6 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3United States00
+
CAT. 2United States11 
CAT. 1United States15,221 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba, Cayman Islands3,566,975
+
United States1,666,907 
Cuba1,897,769 
Cayman Islands2,298 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 223 20 thousand
- - - United States, Cuba, Cayman Islands
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States, Cuba45,787
+
United States902 
Cuba44,885 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba, Cayman Islands3,749,706
+
United States1,136,286 
Cuba2,612,570 
Cayman Islands849 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Cayman Islands1,739,655
+
United States649,960 
Cuba1,089,304 
Cayman Islands390 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 222 80 thousand
- - - - Jamaica
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 138 80 thousand
- - - - Jamaica
Blue 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 194 40 thousand
- - - - Jamaica
Blue 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 517 3.8 million
- - - United States, Cuba, Cayman Islands




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC