Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MINDULLE-21
in Japan, Russian Federation, Guam
30 Sep 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MINDULLE-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Japan
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.3 m (30 Sep 21:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 158 km/h 1.3 m 225 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 700 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Japan207 
Tropical StormJapan212,630 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Sep 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Sep 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Sep 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Sep 2021 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 24 Sep 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 24 Sep 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 25 Sep 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 25 Sep 2021 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Sep 2021 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Sep 2021 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Sep 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 27 Sep 2021 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 28 Sep 2021 00:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 28 Sep 2021 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 29 Sep 2021 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 29 Sep 2021 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 30 Sep 2021 00:00 176 Few people
- - - - Japan
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmJapan, Philippines513,973
+
Japan418,855 
Philippines95,118 
50-100 mmRussia, Japan, China, Philippines, Guam, Micronesia, Marshall Islands40,109,241
+
Russia14,555 
Japan38,701,852 
China12,713 
Philippines1,368,436 
Guam219 
Micronesia8,768 
Marshall Islands2,695 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Sep 2021 00:00 207 Few people
- - - - Russia, China, Japan, Philippines, Marshall Islands
Blue 2 22 Sep 2021 12:00 167 -
- - - - - Japan, Marshall Islands
Blue 3 23 Sep 2021 00:00 266 -
- - - - - Guam
Blue 4 23 Sep 2021 12:00 111 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 24 Sep 2021 00:00 335 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 24 Sep 2021 12:00 204 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 25 Sep 2021 00:00 223 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 8 25 Sep 2021 12:00 222 70 thousand
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 9 26 Sep 2021 00:00 202 -
- - - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 10 26 Sep 2021 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Sep 2021 00:00 311 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 12 27 Sep 2021 12:00 417 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 28 Sep 2021 00:00 296 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 14 28 Sep 2021 12:00 227 -
- - - - - North Korea, Philippines
Blue 15 29 Sep 2021 00:00 187 -
- - - - - Marshall Islands
Blue 16 29 Sep 2021 12:00 378 -
- - - - - Japan, South Korea
Blue 17 30 Sep 2021 00:00 279 510 thousand
- - - - Russia, Japan, China, Philippines, Guam, Micronesia, Marshall Islands




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC