Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for JULIA-22
in Nicaragua

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Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 102034
TCDEP3

Remnants Of Julia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the
low-level circulation of Julia has opened up into a trough of low
pressure extending from offshore of Guatemala to extreme
southeastern Mexico. Thus it is no longer a tropical cyclone, and
this is the last advisory. The wind speed is set to 25 kt
based on earlier scatterometer data on the fringe of the
system. The main hazard with the remnants of Julia is heavy
rainfall, which is likely to continue over portions of Central
America today and southern Mexico through tomorrow.

The remnants of Julia could also contribute to a new tropical
cyclone development offshore of southern Mexico later this week, so
please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
for further details.


Key Messages:

1. The threat of flash flooding continues across the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday. Across Central America, the
flash flooding risk is decreasing, but some areas of additional
flooding remain possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 15.0N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF
12H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 102034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Julia Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...THE REMNANTS OF JULIA COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 91.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF GUATEMALA CITY GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Julia were located near
latitude 15.0 North, longitude 91.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts, primarily over water. This system should further weaken
today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

*El Salvador and southern Guatemala...additional 1 to 4 inches,
isolated storm totals of 15 inches
*Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches

The threat of flash flooding continues across the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday. Across Central America, the
flash-flooding risk is decreasing, but some areas of additional
flooding remain possible.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are possible
today along the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 102033
TCMEP3

REMNANTS OF JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182022
2100 UTC MON OCT 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 91.6W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 91.6W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 91.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 91.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 101612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.10.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 89.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2022 0 13.5N 89.4W 1004 35
0000UTC 11.10.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 38.1N 14.4E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2022 72 37.5N 15.2E 1015 29
0000UTC 14.10.2022 84 37.2N 20.0E 1011 30
1200UTC 14.10.2022 96 34.9N 23.7E 1009 32
0000UTC 15.10.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 34.9N 74.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.10.2022 84 34.9N 74.4W 1005 36
1200UTC 14.10.2022 96 37.4N 71.1W 1005 34
0000UTC 15.10.2022 108 40.2N 68.4W 1006 38
1200UTC 15.10.2022 120 50.4N 69.1W 1008 34
0000UTC 16.10.2022 132 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 35.9N 31.7E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.10.2022 132 35.8N 31.6E 1005 33
1200UTC 16.10.2022 144 35.2N 31.4E 1008 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101612

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 101612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.10.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 89.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2022 13.5N 89.4W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 38.1N 14.4E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2022 37.5N 15.2E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2022 37.2N 20.0E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2022 34.9N 23.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 34.9N 74.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.10.2022 34.9N 74.4W WEAK
12UTC 14.10.2022 37.4N 71.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2022 40.2N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2022 50.4N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2022 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 35.9N 31.7E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.10.2022 35.8N 31.6E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.10.2022 35.2N 31.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101612

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 101445
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Julia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

Microwave and surface observations indicate the center of Julia went
inland just before 1200 UTC about 35 miles west of San Salvador.
Deep convection has weakened somewhat over the center since that
time, and the whole circulation is becoming stretched by the
mountainous terrain. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt,
assuming some spin down of the winds from friction.

Julia should dissipate by this evening while it continues moving
west-northwestward over southern Guatemala. No significant changes
were made to the previous forecast. Regardless, heavy rainfall is
likely to continue over portions of Central America through today
and southern Mexico through tomorrow.

Some of the residual moisture and vorticity associated with Julia
could become absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the
west, associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.
For information on the potential for new development offshore of
southern Mexico later this week, please see the latest eastern North
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.1N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0000Z 15.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 101445
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Julia Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES SHOULD CONTINUE FROM
JULIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 90.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All watches and warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia
was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 90.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
today. On the forecast track, the center of Julia will move over
southern Guatemala today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Julia is expected to dissipate this evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

*El Salvador and southern Guatemala...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15
inches
*Western Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6
inches, isolated 10 inches
*Belize, remainder of Honduras, and northern Guatemala...additional
1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 10 inches
*Nicaragua...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 15
inches
*Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated
storm total of 6 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated across
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are possible
today along the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 101442
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182022
1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 90.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 90.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 89.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.2N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 90.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 101138
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...JULIA MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 89.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 89.7 West. Julia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. On the
forecast track, the center of Julia will move near or over the
coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a
tropical depression later today and dissipate by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center. The El Salvador International Airport recently
reported a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
warning area along the Pacific coast of Honduras and El Salvador for
the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
Pacific coast of Guatemala this morning.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

*El Salvador and southern Guatemala...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15
inches
*Western Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6
inches, isolated 10 inches
*Belize, remainder of Honduras, and northern Guatemala...additional
1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 10 inches
*Nicaragua...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 15
inches
*Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated
storm total of 6 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated across
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia continue to affect Providencia and
San Andres Islands and the Caribbean coast of Central America, but
should gradually subside today. Swells not caused by Julia are
expected to affect the Pacific coast of Central America during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 100850
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

GOES-16 proxy-visible satellite data and surface observations from
the El Salvador International Airport suggest the center of Julia is
passing very near the coast of El Salvador this morning. A band of
deep convection has persisted over the southern and eastern portions
of the circulation, where tropical-storm-force winds are thought to
still be occurring. Unfortunately, overnight ASCAT data swaths
missed capturing Julia's wind field, and there have not been any
recent high-resolution passive microwave overpasses to assess the
structure of the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for
this advisory, based on a T2.5/35 kt Dvorak intensity estimate from
TAFB.

The initial motion of Julia is west-northwestward at 290/13 kt, and
this general motion is expected to continue today as the cyclone is
steered by a ridge to the north. Weakening is expected as the center
moves near or over the coast of Central America, and Julia is
forecast to become a tropical depression later today and dissipate
by tonight. However, it is possible that the surface circulation
dissipates even sooner than forecast once it moves over the rugged
terrain of Central America. Regardless, heavy rainfall is likely to
continue over portions of Central America through today.

Although Julia is forecast to dissipate by tonight, residual
moisture and vorticity associated with its remnants could become
absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the west, associated
with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. For information
on the potential for new development offshore of southern Mexico
later this week, please see the latest eastern North Pacific
Tropical Weather Outlook.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue this morning over
portions of the coasts of Honduras and El Salvador within the
warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible today along the
Pacific coast of Guatemala.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 13.4N 89.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 100849
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...JULIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 89.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Pacific coast of Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 89.2 West. Julia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. On the
forecast track, the center of Julia will move near or over the
coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a tropical
depression later today and dissipate by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center. The El Salvador International Airport recently
reported a sustained wind of 28 mph (44 km/h) and a gust of 41 mph
(67 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
warning area along the Pacific coast of Honduras and El Salvador for
the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
Pacific coast of Guatemala this morning.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

El Salvador and southern Guatemala...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15
inches.
Western Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6
inches, isolated 10 inches.
Belize, remainder of Honduras, and northern Guatemala...additional
1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 10 inches
Nicaragua...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 15
inches
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated
storm total of 6 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated across
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia continue to affect Providencia and
San Andres Islands and the Caribbean coast of Central America, but
should gradually subside today. Swells not caused by Julia are
expected to affect the Pacific coast of Central America during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 100848
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182022
0900 UTC MON OCT 10 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 89.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 89.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 88.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.3N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 89.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 100541
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JULIA SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 88.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Sandino northward to the
Honduras border
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 88.9 West. Julia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today. On the
forecast track, the center of Julia will move near or over the
Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a
tropical depression today and dissipate by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring along the
Pacific coast of northwestern Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of
Guatemala today.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America through today. Flash flooding is anticipated
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia continue to affect Providencia and
San Andres Islands and the Caribbean coast of Central America, but
should gradually subside through tonight. Swells not caused by
Julia are expected to affect the Pacific coast of Central America
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 100242
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

Julia's low-level center has not been easy to locate this evening
in infrared satellite imagery, but a couple of SSMIS microwave
overpasses between 2300-2331 UTC suggest that the center was
located very close to the northwestern coast of Nicaragua. A band
of deep convection has developed to the southeast of the estimated
center but it lacks significant curvature. Assuming some additional
weakening occurred before Julia exited the coast, the initial
intensity has been reduced to 35 kt which is in line with the
latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. However, there is larger than
normal uncertainty regarding Julia's initial intensity. Hopefully,
scatterometer data will provide some clarity on the intensity of
the cyclone overnight.

Since the northern portion of Julia's circulation is forecast to
continue interacting with the mountainous terrain of central
America, additional weakening is expected over the next 12 to 24
hours. Forecast wind fields from the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET indicate
that the circulation is likely to lose definition over the next 12
to 18 hours, and by 24 hours Julia is forecast to dissipate as it
is absorbed within a broad surface trough/low associated with a
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Julia's appears to be moving between west and west-northwest at
about 13 kt. A west-northwestward motion around the southwestern
portion of a mid-level ridge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
should continue until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast is
again on the northern side of the model envelope, close to the GFS
and ECMWF model fields. After 24 hours, the model trackers latch
on to the vorticity associated with the broad circulation mentioned
above, and not Julia itself.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to move near the coasts of northwestern
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador through Monday, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect. Tropical-force-winds are also
possible on Monday along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, where a
tropical storm watch is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America into Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 12.8N 88.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 13.4N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 100241
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JULIA SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 88.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Pacific coast of Nicaragua south of Puerto Sandino.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Sandino northward to the
Honduras border
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 88.1 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected overnight and on Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Julia will move close to and parallel to the Pacific
coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala overnight and on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Julia is
expected to remain a tropical storm near the Pacific coast
of Central America through early Monday. Julia is expected to
dissipate by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring along
the Pacific coast of northwestern Nicaragua and should spread to
the Pacific coasts of Honduras and El Salvador overnight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala
on Monday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America into Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia continue to affect Providencia and
San Andres Islands and the Caribbean coast of Central America, but
should gradually subside through Monday night. Swells not caused by
Julia are expected to affect the Pacific coast of Central America
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 100241
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182022
0300 UTC MON OCT 10 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF PUERTO SANDINO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO SANDINO NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS BORDER
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 88.1W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 88.1W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 87.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.4N 90.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 88.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 092351
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...CENTER OF JULIA EMERGES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 87.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WNW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 87.6 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected tonight and on Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Julia will move close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of
Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Julia is
expected to remain a tropical storm near the Pacific coast of
Central America through early Monday. Julia is expected to
dissipate by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring along
the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and should spread to the Pacific
coasts of Honduras and El Salvador this evening and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of
Guatemala on Monday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Costa Rica...an additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 12 inch storm
total amounts.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia continue to affect Providencia and
San Andres Islands and the Caribbean coast of Central America, but
should gradually subside through Monday night. Swells not caused by
Julia are expected to affect the Pacific coast of Central America
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 092037
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

Julia's center has raced across Nicaragua all day and is just about
ready to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters. Low-topped
convection continues near the center, and the circulation remains
well defined in visible satellite imagery, radar data from Managua,
and surface observations from Nicaragua. Some deeper convection
continues to form in a band over eastern Nicaragua and over the
adjacent Pacific waters. Based on a typical decay rate of a
tropical cyclone's winds over land, the initial intensity is
estimated to be 45 kt.

Even though Julia has made it across Nicaragua intact as a tropical
cyclone, the interaction with land has still taken a toll.
Moderate deep-layer shear out of the east-northeast has also begun
to affect the cyclone, and forecast wind fields from the GFS,
ECMWF, and UKMET all show the circulation shrinking over the next
day or so. Using these models as the basis for the intensity
forecast, continued weakening is anticipated, and Julia is likely to
fall below tropical storm strength in 12 to 24 hours. The cyclone
is then expected to dissipate by 36 hours when it becomes absorbed
by a broader surface trough farther west associated with an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Julia's fast westward motion has continued, but it's reaching the
western end of the subtropical ridge and should turn toward the
west-northwest and slow down a bit over the next 24 hours. The NHC
track forecast lies on the northern side of the model trackers and
closely follows the raw wind and pressure fields from the GFS,
ECMWF, and UKMET models, moving Julia very close to and parallel to
the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala before
dissipation. Most of the model trackers are not valid in this
case since they are attached to the aforementioned broader area of
vorticity to the west and not Julia itself.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to move over the far eastern Pacific waters
as a tropical storm through early Monday near the coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador, where tropical storm warnings
are in effect. Tropical-force-winds are also possible on Monday
along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, where a tropical storm watch
is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America tonight and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 12.4N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE NIC. COAST
12H 10/0600Z 12.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/1800Z 13.6N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 092036
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 86.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 86.9 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected tonight and on Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Julia will move off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua soon and then
move close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El
Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Julia is
expected to remain a tropical storm near the Pacific coast of
Central America through early Monday. Julia is expected to
dissipate by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring along
the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and should spread to the Pacific
coasts of Honduras and El Salvador this evening and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of
Guatemala on Monday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Costa Rica...an additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 12 inch storm
total amounts.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia continue to affect Providencia and
San Andres Islands and the Caribbean coast of Central America, but
should gradually subside through Monday night. Swells not caused by
Julia are expected to affect the Pacific coast of Central America
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 092036
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 86.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 86.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 86.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.8N 88.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.6N 90.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 86.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 091746
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
COAST...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 86.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 86.2 West. Julia
is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, with a slightly slower
west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over
Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening.
Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the
Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical storm when
it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El
Salvador tonight and Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate near
the coast of Guatemala by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning
area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala
within the watch area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4
inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under
Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2022 0 12.4N 84.4W 991 40
0000UTC 10.10.2022 12 12.9N 87.5W 998 41
1200UTC 10.10.2022 24 13.4N 90.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 11.10.2022 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.0N 101.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.10.2022 84 15.6N 102.4W 1007 30
1200UTC 13.10.2022 96 16.0N 104.8W 1006 29
0000UTC 14.10.2022 108 16.0N 107.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 14.10.2022 120 16.7N 107.9W 1006 28
0000UTC 15.10.2022 132 18.2N 108.7W 1006 25
1200UTC 15.10.2022 144 20.3N 109.0W 1009 20


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091612

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2022 12.4N 84.4W MODERATE
00UTC 10.10.2022 12.9N 87.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2022 13.4N 90.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.0N 101.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.10.2022 15.6N 102.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2022 16.0N 104.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2022 16.0N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2022 16.7N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2022 18.2N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2022 20.3N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091612

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 091442
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

Julia continues to move westward across Nicaragua with a
well-defined circulation and deep convection persisting near the
center. The terrain of southern and central Nicaragua is not as
rugged as areas farther north in Central America, and Julia is
probably only gradually weakening while it crosses land. Based on
a typical decay rate, and interpolating from the previous forecast,
Julia is now estimated to be a 60-kt tropical storm.

Strong ridging over the Gulf of Mexico continues to propel the
storm quickly westward (270 degrees) at about 13 kt, and that
motion should continue today, with Julia's center expected to move
off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by this evening. By tonight and
Monday, Julia is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and
move very close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras,
El Salvador, and Guatemala. The model trackers lose Julia in a day
or two and instead show a potential track farther offshore by
keying in on a broader circulation farther west that is associated
with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. However,
global model fields, in particular the GFS and ECWMF, show Julia's
smaller circulation more closely hugging the Pacific coast of
Central America, and the updated NHC track forecast more closely
follows that scenario.

Additional weakening is expected today while Julia continues moving
over land, but the cyclone should still be at tropical storm
strength when it moves offshore this evening. In keeping with the
GFS and ECMWF solutions, Julia's contracting circulation is
forecast to weaken further over the Pacific waters, coincident with
an increase in easterly shear. Based on the latest forecast, Julia
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and then
dissipate by Monday night while moving close to the coast of
Guatemala.

Regardless of Julia's track and future status as a tropical cyclone,
the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over
Central America and southern Mexico for several days, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain.

Since Julia's low-level circulation is expected to survive its
passage across Nicaragua, the cyclone will retain the same name
when it moves into the eastern Pacific basin. The intermediate
advisory at 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) will be issued under the same
Atlantic product headers as before. However, now that all coastal
watches and warnings are located along the Pacific coast of Central
America, product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with the next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC),
with the ATCF identifier changing from AL132022 to EP182022.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Nicaragua today and reaches the adjacent Pacific waters
this evening. Tropical storm warnings are in effect along the
Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account
for the likelihood of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas
later today through Monday. Tropical-force-winds are also possible
on Monday along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, where a tropical
storm watch is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America Sunday and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 12.4N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 091442
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA MOVING ACROSS NICARAGUA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 85.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued all watches and
warnings along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua.

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the Caribbean coast of Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 85.4 West.
Julia is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today, with a slightly slower
west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over
Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening.
Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the
Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during
the next day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical
storm when it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras,
and El Salvador tonight and Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate
near the coast of Guatemala by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning
area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala
within the watch area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4
inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

The intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT will be issued under
Atlantic AWIPS header MIATCPAT3 and WMO header WTNT33 KNHC.

The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under
Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 091442
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 85.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1800Z

FUTURE FORECAST INFORMATION ON JULIA CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3...WMO HEADER
WTPZ23 KNHC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 091138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA, STILL AS A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located
inland over Nicaragua near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 84.6
West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by
a slight turn to the west-northwest on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving across
Nicaragua today and emerge over the eastern Pacific by tonight.
Julia is then forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of
Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected today as Julia
moves over Nicaragua, but it is still forecast to be a tropical
storm when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by tonight.
Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday night
and dissipate by Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). The Bluefields International Airport in Nicaragua
reported a sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) a few hours ago a
little after Julia had made landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue near Julia's center
and along the coast of Nicaragua within the warning area this
morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of
Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area this morning.

Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas through this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area
beginning this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area
on Monday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely still occurring
along the coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds, but water
levels should subside today. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090851
TCDAT3

Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

Julia is estimated to have made landfall as a 75-kt hurricane around
0715 UTC along the coast of Nicaragua near Pearl Lagoon. The
hurricane appeared to strengthen through landfall, with a more
well-defined inner core noted in passive microwave imagery and a
center that was embedded deep within the very cold central dense
overcast overnight. With the center now located just inland over
eastern Nicaragua, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this
advisory, which is supported by the last ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS
(75 kt) and the 06 UTC Dvorak estimate from SAB (77 kt).

Julia is moving westward at about 14 kt, and a strong ridge that
extends across the southern Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer
Julia quickly westward across Nicaragua today. The center of the
cyclone is forecast to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters this
evening or tonight and then move westward or west-northwestward near
the Pacific coast of El Salvador and Guatemala on Monday. There is
still above average uncertainty in this part of the forecast. While
some models (ECMWF, HWRF, HMON) have trended closer to the coast and
even show Julia moving inland, the UKMET lies on the southern edge
of the envelope and keeps Julia farther offshore. The GFS is
somewhere in the middle, generally showing the vortex skirting the
coast. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the north of the
previous one at 36-48 h, in line with the majority of the models.

Land interaction should result in considerable weakening of Julia
during the next 12 h or so. However, the fast forward motion is
forecast to keep the surface circulation intact, and various models
indicate the cyclone will maintain enough organization to remain a
tropical storm as it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua later
today. The NHC forecast track keeps the center near the coast, where
the topography of Central America could further disrupt its
low-level structure. The models also indicate that deep-layer
easterly shear may increase over the cyclone during the next 24-36
h. Based on these factors, the official NHC forecast shows Julia
gradually weakening on Monday and then dissipating on Tuesday. If
the track deviates farther north as suggested by some of the models,
Julia could move inland and dissipate even sooner than forecast.

Regardless of Julia's track and future status as a tropical cyclone,
the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over
Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are occurring
along portions of the coast of Nicaragua where the core of Julia
made landfall this morning.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America Sunday and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of
tropical-storm-force winds in those areas later today through
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 12.4N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/1800Z 12.5N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0600Z 12.7N 88.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/1800Z 13.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 14.1N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090851
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 84.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has replaced the Hurricane Warning
with a Tropical Storm Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands.

The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the entire Pacific coast of Guatemala, from the El
Salvador/Guatemala border to the Guatemala/Mexico border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located
near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 84.0 West. Julia is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a slight turn to
the west-northwest on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Julia is expected to move across Nicaragua today and emerge over the
eastern Pacific by tonight. Julia is then forecast to move near or
along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on
Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected today as Julia moves over Nicaragua,
but it is still forecast to be a tropical storm when it emerges off
the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by tonight. Julia is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression on Monday night and dissipate by
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). The Bluefields International Airport in Nicaragua recently
reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the coast of
Nicaragua within the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch
area this morning. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, will
continue for the next few hours on the islands of San Andres,
Providencia, and Santa Catalina.

Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas through this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area
beginning this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area
on Monday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging
waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.

Water levels should be receding on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands as Julia continues moving inland over
Nicaragua.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090850
TCMAT3

HURRICANE JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
0900 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND
SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA...FROM THE EL
SALVADOR/GUATEMALA BORDER TO THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO PUERTO CABEZAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA
* PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA
* PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 84.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 84.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 12.5N 86.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.7N 88.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.3N 91.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.1N 93.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 84.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 090715
TCUAT3

Hurricane Julia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
315 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA MAKES LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA NEAR LAGUNA DE PERLAS...

Satellite and Nicaraguan radar data indicate that the center of
Julia has made landfall along the coast near Laguna de Perlas in
Nicaragua at 315 AM EDT...0715 UTC. Maximum sustained
winds at landfall were estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 0315 AM EDT...0715 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 83.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090554
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...STRENGTHENING JULIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOON ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 83.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located
near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 83.3 West. Julia is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is
expected to make landfall within the warning area on the coast of
Nicaragua shortly, then move across Nicaragua later today. Julia is
forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El
Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night.

Satellite intensity estimates indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is possible until the center makes landfall in
Nicaragua. Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is
forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific
coast of Nicaragua late today or tonight. Julia is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday
night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are passing west of the Colombian
islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, but tropical
storm conditions will continue for these locations over the next few
hours. Hurricane conditions are spreading over the coast of
Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area and should continue
through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area through this
morning.

Tropical storm conditions are likely ongoing along the Caribbean
coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas and will
continue through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area through
this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area this
afternoon into tonight.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090234
TCDAT3

Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Julia became a hurricane near 08/23Z. NOAA measured
700-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt and estimated surface winds of
67 kt on the SFMR, while the Air Force measured 850-mb flight-level
winds of 75 kt. The central pressure fell to near 988 mb while the
planes were in the cyclone. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 65 kt.

The initial motion is still westward or 270/14 kt. Strong
deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane should steer Julia
generally westward during the next couple of days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed. This motion should bring the center
across the coast of Nicaragua during the next several hours, then
across Nicaragua on Sunday before emerging into the Pacific late
Sunday or Sunday night. After that, Julia, or its remnants, are
expected to continue moving generally westward until the system
dissipates. The new official forecast track is very similar to the
previous track and lies close to the various consensus models.

Julia has only a few more hours before landfall in Nicaragua.
However, infrared and microwave satellite imagery shows that the
convective structure has become much better organized, and the
hurricane would likely undergo rapid intensification if it wasn't
about to make landfall. While not explicitly shown in the
intensity forecast, maximum sustained winds could reach 70-75 kt
before landfall. A quick weakening is expected after landfall, but
Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength when it
emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. The intensity forecast
still calls for Julia to weaken over the Pacific and dissipate
after 48 h as it becomes absorbed by a broader area of low pressure
associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, a scenario
supported by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. However, the
UKMET maintains some uncertainty about this, as it shows Julia
surviving and movingly slowly westward into the Pacific during the
next several days.

Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone,
the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains
over Central America for several days, which could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas
of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua as a hurricane
within the next several hours. Hurricane-force winds and a
dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of Providencia and
San Andres islands during the next few hours, and are expected near
the core of the hurricane when it moves onshore in Nicaragua.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is
possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next
week.

3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of
tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Sunday
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 12.5N 82.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0000Z 12.6N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/1200Z 13.0N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 13.4N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090233
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...CENTER OF JULIA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 82.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located
near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.7 West. Julia is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is
expected to make landfall on the coast of Nicaragua during the
next several hours, move across Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move
near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and
Guatemala through Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected until the center makes landfall
in Nicaragua. Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but
it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the
Pacific coast of Nicaragua late Sunday or Sunday night. Julia
should weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by
Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions on the Colombian islands of San Andres,
Providencia, and Santa Catalina should end in the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area starting in the next few hours
and continuing into Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions are
possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch
area early Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America this evening into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090233
TCMAT3

HURRICANE JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA
* NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO PUERTO CABEZAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 82.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 82.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 82.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.6N 87.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.0N 90.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.4N 92.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 82.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 082351
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...CENTER OF JULIA PASSING SAN ANDRES AND HEADING FOR THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 82.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located
near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.0 West. Julia is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is
expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua overnight, move across
Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move near or along the Pacific coasts
of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast until landfall in Nicaragua.
Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is forecast to
still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific coast of
Nicaragua late Sunday. Julia should weaken to a tropical depression
on Monday and dissipate by Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from
the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Colombian
islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area overnight and early Sunday
morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next
several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast
of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or
early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of Honduras within the watch area tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America this evening into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 082300
TCUAT3

Hurricane Julia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
700 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE...

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Julia has become a hurricane with 75 mph (120 km/h)
maximum sustained winds as it passes near San Andres and
Providencia Islands.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 81.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 082040
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Satellite images and radar data from San Andres Island show that
convection is starting to fill in to the north of Julia's center,
with a burst now rotating around the east side of and over the
core. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are now T3.5/55 kt and
T4.0/65 kt, respectively, and the UW-CIMSS ADT is between 60 and 65
kt. Based on these data, Julia's intensity is raised to 60 kt.
Both NOAA and the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled
to conduct missions in Julia this evening.

Julia may have slowed down just a little bit, and the initial
motion estimate is westward, or 270/15 kt. Strong ridging over
Florida and the Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a relatively
quick westward trajectory during the next couple of days, reaching
the coast of Nicaragua overnight and then moving across the country
on Sunday. Track model guidance has continued to shift southward,
and there's now nearly unanimous consensus that Julia's center will
remain intact and emerge off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua Sunday
evening. Julia, or its remnants, are then expected to move
westward, generally parallel to the coasts of El Salvador and
Guatemala Sunday night and Monday. The new NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous prediction, except just a touch south
while over the Pacific waters.

Environmental conditions favor strengthening this evening and
tonight before Julia reaches the coast of Nicaragua, especially if
the recent burst of deep convection can remain near or over the
center. As such, Julia is still forecast to become a hurricane
within the next 12 hours. After landfall, fast weakening is
expected, but Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm
strength when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua due to
its fast transit across the country. Even if it does survive, the
global models generally show the circulation dissipating or
becoming absorbed by a broader area of low pressure associated with
a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, and that should occur by
Monday night.

Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone, the
evolving set up is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central
America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane this evening
or tonight before reaching the coast of Nicaragua. A Hurricane
Warning remains in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast and
the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds
and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of
the system crosses the islands this evening and moves onshore in
Nicaragua tonight.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is
possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next
week.

3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of
tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Sunday
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 12.6N 81.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 12.5N 83.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 12.6N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0600Z 12.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 10/1800Z 13.3N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 082040
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA
* NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO PUERTO CABEZAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 81.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 81.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 80.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 12.5N 83.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 12.6N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.8N 88.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.3N 91.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 81.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 082040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
OVERNIGHT...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 81.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of El Salvador has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the entire coast of El Salvador.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 81.3 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is
expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua overnight, move across
Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move near or along the Pacific coasts
of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this evening and
tonight, and Julia could become a hurricane while passing near San
Andres and Providencia Islands this evening. Julia is also
expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Nicaragua
overnight. Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is
forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific
coast of Nicaragua late Sunday. Julia should weaken to a tropical
depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Colombian
islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, and
hurricane conditions are expected this evening. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area overnight and early Sunday morning, with
tropical storm conditions beginning by this evening. Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane watch area early Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or
early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America this evening into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081747
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...JULIA HEADING TOWARD NICARAGUA IN A HURRY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 80.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF ISLA DE SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
* Coast of El Salvador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 80.5 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to
pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands later today and
then move inland along the coast of Nicaragua early Sunday morning.
Julia is then expected to cross Nicaragua on Sunday, and move near
or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador
Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a
hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast after the center moves
inland over Nicaragua on Sunday, but Julia could still be at or near
tropical storm strength when it moves near or along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night and
Monday. Julia is forecast to become a remnant low by late Monday
and dissipate by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

Data from a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
indicate that the minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, and
tropical storm conditions are beginning now. Hurricane conditions
are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane
warning area early Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday
morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or
early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the coast of El Salvador by Sunday
night.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America later today into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 081449
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data indicate that Julia is not a
vertically stacked tropical cyclone. The plane first made an
initial center fix to the north of the main area of deep convection
and found that the central pressure had fallen to 994 mb. About an
hour later, a second center fix was made three tenths of a degree
farther south near the deep convection, although the lowest
pressure there was only about 998 mb. The center has been placed
in between the two fixes, hedging toward the lower pressure to the
north. Julia's initial intensity is set at 55 kt based on the
lowering of the central pressure and unanimous satellite
classifications of T3.5. So far, the aircraft has measured peak
850-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt and reliable SFMR winds around
45 kt, so it's assumed the plane has not directly sampled the area
of highest winds.

Despite the uncertainty in Julia's initial position, it's clear
that the storm continues to move quickly westward with an estimated
motion of 270/18 kt. With strong ridging to the north, a continued
fast westward trajectory is expected during the next couple of
days, which should bring Julia's center inland over Nicaragua by
early Sunday morning. If Julia's center survives the passage over
Central America, it could move just offshore of or along the
Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night
and Monday.

It still appears that there is about 15 kt of northwesterly or
northerly shear affecting Julia, but model guidance indicates this
should abate and then turn out of the east-northeast later today and
tonight. Therefore, further strengthening is anticipated, and Julia
is forecast to become a hurricane later today. It's important to
keep in mind that Julia could have a higher intensity when it
reaches the coast of Nicaragua than what is explicitly shown, since
in this forecast landfall would occur between the 12- and 24-hour
forecast times. In fact, SHIPS guidance suggests the intensity
could be in the 75-80 kt range at 18 hours, which mirrors what was
shown in the previous NHC forecast.

Due to Julia's more southern and faster track, there is increasing
global model support that the cyclone will be able to maintain a
well-defined center and circulation while it crosses Central
America, and it could also still be at tropical storm intensity
when it reaches the Pacific side of Central America. However, even
if it survives the crossing, most of the guidance shows the
circulation becoming more diffuse or dissipating over the Pacific
waters in 2 to 3 days. Based on the updated NHC forecast, and to
account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Pacific coast of Central America, tropical storm warnings and
watches have been issued for the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador. Regardless of Julia's track and
existence as a tropical cyclone, the evolving set up is likely to
lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially
in areas of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today, and
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast
and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds
and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of
the system crosses the islands later today and moves onshore in
Nicaragua early Sunday morning.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is
possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next
week.

3. There is an increasing chance that Julia could remain as a
tropical storm while it moves across Central America, and tropical
storm warnings and watches have been issued along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the
possibility of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late
Sunday and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 12.6N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 12.5N 81.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0000Z 12.7N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 11/0000Z 13.7N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081449
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...JULIA A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 79.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the entire Pacific coast of Nicaragua.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Pacific coast of Honduras, including the Gulf of Fonseca.

The government of El Salvador has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the entire coast of El Salvador.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
* Coast of El Salvador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 79.9 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to
pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands later today
and then move inland along the coast of Nicaragua early Sunday
morning. Julia is then expected to cross Nicaragua on Sunday, and
move near or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and
El Salvador Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Julia
is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is
forecast after the center moves inland over Nicaragua on Sunday,
but Julia could still be at tropical storm strength when it moves
near or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El
Salvador Sunday night and Monday. Julia is forecast to become a
remnant low by late Monday and dissipate by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area early Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area
early Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or
early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the coast of El Salvador by Sunday
night.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America later today into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 081448
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA
* NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO PUERTO CABEZAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.5N 81.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.7N 86.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.7N 91.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 79.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081152
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JULIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras,
and El Salvador should monitor the progress of Julia, as watches
could be required for portions of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 12.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. Julia is moving toward
the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). This general motion should continue
through tonight, followed by a westward or west-northwestward motion
at a slower forward speed on Sunday and Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over
San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and then reach the
coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will
then turn west-northwestward near the Pacific coast of Central
America by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast while Julia moves
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today and tonight, and the
system is expected to become a hurricane later today. Rapid
weakening is forecast after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is
likely to become a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area Sunday
morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras
within the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Elsewhere in Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
in Central America through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica and are
expected to reach Providencia and San Andres Islands today, and
portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080852
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Julia is a strengthening tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery has
shown an increase in persistent and deep convection occurring over
the center, with an expanding area of cloud top temperatures colder
than -80 deg C. Overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicated the vertical structure of Julia is still organizing, with
evidence of multiple low-level centers noted in the 850-mb flight
level wind data. But, the aircraft reported flight-level winds of
59 kt and believable SFMR retrievals of 45-50 kt on its last pass
through the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory.

Weak deep-layer shear, abundant mid-level moisture, and SSTs around
29.5 degrees Celsius appear conducive for steady to rapid
intensification of Julia during the next 24 h as it approaches
Central America. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index
shows a 63 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during
the next 24 h. Given the strengthening noted tonight and the
improved satellite structure, the NHC forecast calls for Julia to
rapidly intensify into a hurricane later today and continue
strengthening through landfall on Sunday. This forecast lies
between the multi-model consensus aids and the stronger SHIPS and
LGEM guidance. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to weaken as
it moves across the terrain of Central America.

The estimated initial motion is westward at 265/16 kt. Julia is
expected to continue moving quickly westward for the next day
or so along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge to
its north. This motion should bring the center of Julia near San
Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and over the coast of
Nicaragua within the warning area early Sunday. Based on a
southward shift in the track guidance, the NHC forecast has been
adjusted in that direction to bring it closer to the multi-model
consensus. As a result, the government of Nicaragua has extended
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward along the coast.

There is still above average uncertainty regarding the future of
Julia after landfall. While some models (HWRF, HMON, GFS) show the
center largely remaining over land and dissipating, others (ECMWF
and UKMET) show low-level vorticity associated with Julia or its
remnants emerging over the eastern Pacific waters early next week.
While it appears unlikely that the surface circulation would survive
the topography of Nicaragua, this scenario could become more likely
if there are additional southward adjustments to the track. For now,
the NHC forecast shows weakening and dissipation by 72 h near the
coast of Central America, but interests along the Pacific coasts of
El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor forecast
updates. Regardless, the set up is likely to lead to heavy rains
over Central America for several days, which could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today, and
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast
and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds
and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of
the system crosses the islands tonight and moves onshore in
Nicaragua on Sunday.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is possible
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 12.7N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 12.6N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 12.5N 82.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 12.7N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0600Z 13.2N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 13.8N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080851
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
SOUTH OF LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO BLUEFIELDS...AND ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA
BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA
* NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO PUERTO CABEZAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA...AS
WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 78.0W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 78.0W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.6N 80.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 12.5N 82.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 12.7N 85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.2N 87.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.8N 89.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 78.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080851
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...JULIA EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 78.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has extended the Hurricane Warning south
of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields, and issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras,
and El Salvador should monitor the progress of Julia, as watches
could be required for portions of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 78.0 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). This general motion
should continue through tonight, followed by a westward or
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed on Sunday and
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected
to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening
and then reach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia or
its remnants will then turn west-northwestward near the Pacific
coast of Central America by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea today and tonight, and the system is
expected to become a hurricane later today. Rapid weakening is
forecast after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to
become a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area Sunday
morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras
within the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Elsewhere in Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
in Central America through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica and are
expected to reach Providencia and San Andres Islands today, and
portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080551
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JULIA IS STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 77.2W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 77.2 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). This general motion
should continue through tonight, with a westward motion at a slower
forward speed expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San
Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and then reach the coast
of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn
west-northwestward over Central America by Monday.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast
while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the
next day or so, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by
the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands
and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated
after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a
remnant low or dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch areas Sunday
morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras
within the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7
inches, isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica and are
expected to reach Providencia and San Andres Islands today, and
portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080240
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

Satellite imagery indicates Julia has become somewhat better
organized during the past several hours, with the development of a
central convective burst with cloud top temperatures colder than
-80C and several outer bands appearing. Reports from NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show this has resulted in
some strengthening, with the maximum sustained winds near 40 kt and
the minimum pressure near 999 mb. However, the aircraft data show
that Julia is still disorganized. The 850-mb circulation is weak
in the southwestern quadrant, and the 700-mb center is notably
south of the 850-mb and surface centers.

The surface center is a little to the south of the previous advisory
position, possibly due to reformation caused by the convective
burst. The initial motion is westward or 270/15 kt. The guidance
suggests that a quick westward motion should persist for the next
24-36 h or so as the storm is steered by a strong low- to mid-level
ridge to the north. This motion should bring the center near San
Andres and Providencia Islands in about 24 h and to the coast of
Nicaragua in about 36 h. A slower westward motion is expected after
landfall, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest starting at
about 48 h. This motion should continue until the system
dissipates. The new official track forecast is a little to the
south of the previous forecast based mainly on the current initial
position, and it lies near the various consensus models.

The vertical wind shear over Julia is decreasing, and the
environment is becoming favorable for steady to rapid
intensification once the cyclone becomes organized enough to take
advantage of it. Based on the trend of the intensity guidance and
the SHIPS rapid intensification indices, the new intensity forecast
calls for Julia to be near hurricane strength when it passes near
San Andres and Providencia, and for it to reach a peak intensity of
70 kt at landfall in Nicaragua. After landfall, the cyclone is
expected to rapidly weaken over the rugged terrain of Central
America, with the surface center dissipating between 72-96 h.

Although Julia is expected to dissipate over Central America by
Monday night, various model solutions depict Julia's leftover
vorticity moving over the eastern Pacific waters, over the Bay of
Campeche, or both after that time. However, it is still unclear at
this time if that will lead to genesis of a new tropical cyclone.
We'll continue to monitor model trends and update the forecast as
needed. Regardless of new development, the set up is likely to lead
to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
evening or Saturday night while it moves over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of
the Nicaragua coast and the offshore Colombian islands.
Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
areas where the core of the system crosses the islands and moves
onshore in Nicaragua.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 12.8N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 12.8N 78.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 12.7N 81.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 12.8N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0000Z 13.1N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/1200Z 13.6N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z 14.4N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080240
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 76.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NW OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 76.1 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion
should continue through Saturday night, with a westward motion at
at a slower forward speed expected Sunday and Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or
over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening and then
reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants
will then turn west-northwestward over Central America by Monday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast
while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the
next day or two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane
by the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia
Islands and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is
anticipated after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to
become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane
watch areas Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7
inches, isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica
tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and
portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080239
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA
* NICARAGUA FROM LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO PUERTO CABEZAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA SOUTH OF LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO BLUEFIELDS
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA SOUTH OF LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO BLUEFIELDS
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 76.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 76.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 75.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.8N 78.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.7N 81.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.8N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.1N 86.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.6N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.4N 90.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 76.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 072348
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JULIA
HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 75.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 415 MI...680 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 75.2 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to
pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday
evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. Julia
or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over Central
America by Monday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast while Julia
moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or
two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by the time
it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and
reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated
after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a
remnant low or dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area Sunday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane
watch areas Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7
inches, isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica
tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and
portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 072031
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

Julia's low-level center has been exposed for much of the day,
after the burst of deep convection from this morning was stripped
away by northerly shear. Convective cells have been regenerating
in the proximity of the center, but much of the activity still
lacks organization due to the shear. This morning's Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission measured a peak 925-mb flight-level
wind of 50 kt, which reduces to an intensity between 35 and 40 kt.
Given that the pressure did not drop, and the convection has not
increased in organization, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

Julia has gained some latitude today, but overall it's moving
quickly toward the west, or 280/16 kt, to the south of strong
mid-level ridging. The storm has been moving a little faster than
was forecast during the past day or so, and global model guidance
suggests that the current speeds should be maintained for the next
12-24 hours. Some deceleration is expected as Julia approaches the
coast of Nicaragua, but because the storm has been moving faster
than expected, it's now forecast to reach the coast of Nicaragua
early Sunday morning. The updated NHC prediction lies very near or
along this morning's forecast, but it's just a little faster to
account for recent models trends.

Shear guidance from SHIPS and the GFS insists that the
north-northwesterly shear affecting Julia should abate soon, or at
least take on a more easterly component during the next day or so,
which should favor more intensification. Ocean waters will also be
plenty warm, and upper-level divergence over the system may
increase as well. The NHC intensity forecast most closely follows
a blend of the SHIPS guidance and the HCCA consensus aid, showing
Julia reaching hurricane strength by 36 hours, about the time it
passes the Colombian islands offshore of Nicaragua. Even though 65
kt is the peak intensity shown in the forecast, additional
strengthening beyond that value is possible before Julia reaches
the coast of Nicaragua.

Julia is now expected to dissipate over Central America by Monday
(72 hours). Various model solutions depict Julia's leftover
vorticity moving over the eastern Pacific waters, over the Bay of
Campeche, or both after that time, but it is unclear at this time
if that will lead to genesis of a new tropical cyclone. We'll
continue to monitor model trends and update the forecast as needed.
Regardless of new development, the set up is likely to lead to
heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
evening or Saturday night while it moves over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of
the Nicaragua coast and the offshore Colombian islands.
Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
areas where the core of the system crosses the islands and moves
onshore in Nicaragua.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.0N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.1N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 13.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 13.0N 82.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 13.2N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0600Z 13.5N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 14.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 072031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NICARAGUA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM N OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas. A
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Puerto Cabezas to
the Honduras/Nicaragua border and south of Laguna de Perlas to
Bluefields.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 74.7 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to
pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday
evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning.
Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over
Central America by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is
expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over
San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of
Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland
on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area Sunday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane
watch areas Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7
inches, isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica
tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and
portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 072031
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO PUERTO CABEZAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER AND SOUTH OF LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO
BLUEFIELDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA
* NICARAGUA FROM LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO PUERTO CABEZAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA SOUTH OF LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO BLUEFIELDS
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA SOUTH OF LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO BLUEFIELDS
* NICARAGUA NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 74.7W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 74.7W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 73.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.1N 77.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.2N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.5N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.3N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 74.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 071741
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 73.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Riohacha to the Colombia/Venezuela border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 73.9 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days,
passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening,
and reaching the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. After landfall,
Julia or its remnants are expected to turn west-northwestward and
move across Central America through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a
hurricane by Saturday evening before it reaches San Andres and
Providencia Islands, and the coast of Nicaragua.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on
data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua
within the watch area Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area in Honduras Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Portions of Central America...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells affecting the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts
of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia
should subside today. Swells are forecast to spread westward and
reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on
Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Saturday
night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 071612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 72.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2022 12.8N 72.0W WEAK
00UTC 08.10.2022 13.2N 75.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2022 13.3N 78.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2022 13.3N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2022 12.7N 84.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2022 13.0N 87.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2022 12.7N 90.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2022 13.0N 92.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2022 13.4N 95.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2022 12.8N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2022 14.3N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2022 14.9N 101.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2022 16.0N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071612

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 071455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with
a high density of lightning developed near the center of the
cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave
imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over
the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb
flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on
that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster
toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt.
A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which
stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a
quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track
guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the
official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by
Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously
forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates
that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and
southern Mexico through Tuesday.

Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and
that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the
recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear
should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening
trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday
evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in
Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official
forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus
aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC
forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the
expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that
the center will have dissipated by those times.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a
Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for
much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous
storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system
crosses the islands and moves onshore.

2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the
Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America
this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 071454
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA
ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA PATUCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 73.1W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 73.1W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 72.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 73.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 071454
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NICARAGUA AND THE
OFFSHORE COLOMBIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina
Islands.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch from
Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
the Nicaragua/Honduras border westward to Punta Patuca.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia from Riohacha to the Colombia/Venezuela border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next few hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 73.1 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days,
passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening,
and reaching the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. After
landfall, Julia or its remnants are expected to turn
west-northwestward and move across Central America through Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Julia is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday evening before
it reaches San Andres and Providencia Islands, and the coast of
Nicaragua.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on
data from the reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua
within the watch area Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Saturday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia
within the warning area for a few more hours. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras Sunday
morning.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Portions of Central America...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells affecting the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts
of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia
should subside today. Swells are forecast to spread westward and
reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on
Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Saturday
night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 071147
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 71.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela
border

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor
the progress of the disturbance. Watches or warnings will likely be
required for portions of those coasts later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 71.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a
generally westward motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to move over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Saturday. The system is
forecast to pass near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday
night, and approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast today, and the depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning or this
afternoon. A faster rate of strengthening is forecast on Saturday
and Saturday night, and the system is expected to become a hurricane
before it reaches San Andres and Providencia Islands and the coast
of Nicaragua this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Thirteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night into
early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday
afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia
within the warning area this morning. Gusts to tropical storm force
are possible across portions of the northwestern coast of Venezuela
during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...additional 1 to 3
inches
Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Portions of Central America...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. There is also
the potential for life-threatening mudslides across portions of
Central America this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia. These swells are forecast to spread westward
and reach Jamaica late tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands
on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on
Saturday night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 070854
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

The structure of the depression has not changed much this morning.
Based on surface observations and radar data from Curacao, it
appears the center of the system has passed south of Aruba and moved
over the far northern Gulf of Venezuela. The deepest convection is
still confined to the southern and western portions of the
circulation. There has been a slight increase in convection well to
the north of the center during the past several hours, but it lacks
organization at this time. Unfortunately, the center of the
depression was not sampled by overnight ASCAT data swaths. Recent
subjective satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB range from 30-35
kt, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this morning.

The depression is still moving westward at 280/13 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge entrenched over the western Atlantic and the Gulf of
Mexico will remain the primary steering mechanism for the next few
days. This ridge should keep the cyclone on a westward heading as it
crosses the southwestern Caribbean Sea and approaches the coast of
Nicaragua later this weekend. The steering flow is consistent among
the global models, and the track model guidance remains tightly
clustered through landfall. Then, the system is forecast to reach
the western extent of the ridge and gradually turn toward the
west-northwest at 72-96 h as it moves across Central America. Due to
the consistency in the track guidance, the latest NHC forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one.

Given the cyclone's proximity to land, only gradual strengthening is
forecast in the near term as the cyclone passes near or over the
Guajira Peninsula. Still, the depression is expected to become a
tropical storm later today. Once the system moves away from land and
reaches the warm waters of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, the
atmospheric and oceanic conditions should support a faster rate of
intensification. Generally weak to moderate deep-layer shear is
forecast as the cyclone moves within a moist and unstable
environment, and the multi-model intensity guidance consensus
supports the cyclone becoming a hurricane by 48 h. In fact,
conditions should remain generally favorable for intensification
through landfall, and the official NHC forecast lies on the higher
end of the models near the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA). After
moving inland, the system is expected to weaken over the terrain of
Central America and dissipate early next week.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia this morning. Gusts to tropical storm
force are possible across Aruba and portions of northern Venezuela
during the next several hours.

2. The system is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane when it
moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands.
Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the system's
progress, as additional watches or warnings are likely to be
required for portions of these areas later today.

3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding over
portions of the Guajira Peninsula, northern Venezuela, and the
island chain of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao during the next day or
two. The potential for flash flooding and mudslides is expected to
spread to portions of Central America this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 12.1N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 12.7N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 13.1N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 13.2N 79.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 13.2N 82.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 13.5N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/0600Z 14.1N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 16.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF
COLOMBIA THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 71.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela
border

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor
the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 71.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a
generally westward motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to move near or over the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia this morning, then move across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday. The cyclone is forecast
to pass near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday night, and
approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast today, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm later this morning or this
afternoon. A faster rate of strengthening is forecast on Saturday
and Saturday night, and the system is expected to become a hurricane
before it reaches San Andres and Providencia Islands and the coast
of Nicaragua this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Thirteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night into
early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday
afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia
within the warning area this morning. Gusts to tropical storm force
are possible on Aruba and across portions of the northwestern coast
of Venezuela during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...additional 1 to 3
inches
Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Portions of Central America...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. There is also
the potential for life-threatening mudslides across portions of
Central America this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia. These swells are forecast to spread westward
and reach Jamaica late tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands
on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on
Saturday night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 070850
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
0900 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA EASTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 71.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 71.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.7N 73.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.1N 76.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.2N 79.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.2N 82.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.5N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.1N 86.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 16.0N 91.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 71.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070551
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 AM AST Fri Oct 07 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF
COLOMBIA THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 70.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela
border

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor
the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 70.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a
generally westward motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to move near the coast
of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia this
morning. The system is then forecast to move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass near San Andres and Providencia
Islands Saturday night, and approach the coast of Nicaragua on
Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next 12-24 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. After
that, a faster rate of strengthening is likely, with the system
expected to become a hurricane by Saturday night as it approaches
San Andres and Providencia Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Thirteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia
within the warning area this morning. Gusts to tropical storm force
are possible across the ABC Islands and the northwestern coast
of Venezuela early this morning.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches
Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches.
Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Southwest Costa Rica and Southwestern Panama...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. There is also
the potential for life-threatening mudslides across portions of
Central America this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia. These swells are forecast to spread westward
and reach Jamaica late tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands
on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on
Saturday night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 070236
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

Earlier satellite imagery and radar data from Curacao indicated
that the disturbance was developing a better-defined center between
the ABC Islands and the coast of Venezuela. Since that time, a
large convective burst has formed near and just south of the
center, and there has been an increase in banding in the Curacao
radar data. Based on these developments, the disturbance now has
sufficient circulation and organized convection to be designated a
tropical depression. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft surveying the system showed 25-30 kt winds north of
the center, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The track forecast remains straightforward. The depression is
moving westward or 280/13 kt due to a strong low- to mid-level
ridge stretching across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
This feature should maintain the system on a general westward
heading for the next 72 h across the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
with some slowing of the forward motion expected by 60-72 h as the
cyclone moves over Nicaragua and nears the western end of the ridge.
A subsequent turn toward the west-northwest across Central America
is forecast by 96 h. The new track forecast is basically an update
of the previous forecast and lies very close to the tightly
clustered consensus models.

While the system has developed a better-defined circulation, the
strongest winds are currently well to the north of the center.
Given this and an environment of light northerly shear, the
intensity forecast shows gradual strengthening for the next 12 h,
with the cyclone becoming a tropical storm as it passes near the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. After that, a faster rate of
development is expected as the cyclone's structure improves and the
shear gradually decreases. The new intensity forecast calls for
the system to become a hurricane by 48 h and to reach a peak
intensity of 75 kt just before landfall in Nicaragua. This could
be conservative, as the rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS
model show a significant chance of rapid intensification after 48
h. As mentioned in the last advisory, after landfall the system is
unlikely to survive the forecasted trek across the terrain of
Central America, and dissipation is therefore shown by 120 h.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia later tonight and Friday morning,
where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Gusts to tropical
storm force are possible across portions of northern Venezuela,
Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through early Friday.

2. The system is expected to strengthen when it moves over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Interests in
Nicaragua and Honduras should also monitor the system's progress,
and additional watches or warnings are likely to be required for
portions of these areas on Friday.

3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding over
portions of the Guajira Peninsula, northern Venezuela, and the
island chain of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao during the next day or
two. The potential for flash flooding and mudslides is expected to
spread to portions of Central America this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 11.9N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 12.4N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 13.2N 80.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 13.3N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 13.9N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 15.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070235
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS
AND THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 69.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela
border

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor
the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings
will likely be required on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 69.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and
a generally westward motion is expected to continue through Sunday.
On the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to move near the
ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia tonight through Friday morning. The system
is then forecast to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
moving near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday night, and
approaching the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next 12-24 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Friday morning.
After that, a faster rate of strengthening is likely, with the
system expected to become a hurricane by Saturday night as it
approaches San Andres and Providencia Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia
within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical
storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the
northwestern coast of Venezuela tonight.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches
Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches.
Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Southwest Costa Rica and Southwestern Panama...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. There is
also the potential for life-threatening mudslides across portions of
Central America this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone will affect the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica,
Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast
of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 070235
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
0300 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA EASTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 69.8W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 69.8W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.4N 72.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.2N 80.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.3N 83.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.9N 85.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 15.5N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 69.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 062337
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
800 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
SURVEYING THE DISTURBANCE...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 69.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela
border

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor
the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings
could be required tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.7 North, longitude 69.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is
expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern
Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday
morning. The system is then forecast to move across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, moving near San Andres and Providencia
Islands Saturday night, and approaching the coast of Nicaragua on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
system is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm
later tonight. The system is then expected to become a hurricane by
Saturday night as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on observations from Bonaire, Curacao, and the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia
within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical
storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the
northwestern coast of Venezuela today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches
Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches.
Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Southwest Costa Rica and Extreme Western Panama...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. There is
also the potential for life-threatening mudslides across portions of
Central America this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica,
Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast
of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 062037
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

The disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, with some
convective banding attempting to form west of the center during the
past several hours. Radar imagery from Curacao also suggests there
could be a better-defined center trying to form just to the south
of Bonaire and Curacao, but there are not enough nearby surface
observations to confirm that. Therefore, the system is not yet
designated as a tropical depression. However, an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled for a survey mission
later this evening should hopefully give us a better sense of the
wind field and help provide evidence if the system has developed a
well-defined circulation.

The track forecast is straightforward. The disturbance is being
driven quickly westward with a motion of 270/15 kt by a strong low-
to mid-level ridge stretching across the western Atlantic and Gulf
of Mexico. This feature should maintain the system on a westward
heading for the next 3 days across the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
with some slowing of the forward motion as it moves away from the
main high center over the western Atlantic. A slight turn toward
the west-northwest across Central America is forecast by day 4 once
the system, or its remnants, reaches the western periphery of the
ridge. The track models remain tightly clustered, and the new NHC
forecast is near the previous prediction and the TVCN/HCCA
consensus aids.

The system is likely to form a well-defined center and become a
tropical cyclone within the next 6-12 hours, which is generally
shown by the various global models. They, along with
statistical-dynamical guidance, indicate the system should also
begin to gradually strengthen while passing near the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia. Once the system reaches the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, low to moderate shear and warm sea surface
temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius should foster faster
strengthening, and a consensus of the various SHIPS Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices indicates a 65-75 percent chance of a
65-kt increase over the next 3 days. The NHC intensity is not yet
that aggressive, but the peak intensity now shown in the official
forecast is raised a bit higher to 75 kt at 60 and 72 hours. It's
possible that the intensity could get a little higher between those
times before the system reaches land. Based on the forecast track,
the system is unlikely to survive a trek across the terrain of
Central America, and dissipation is therefore shown by day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia tonight and early Friday, where a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Gusts to tropical storm
force are possible across portions of northern Venezuela, Aruba,
Curacao, and Bonaire through early Friday.

2. The system is expected to strengthen when it moves over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Interests in
Nicaragua and Honduras should also monitor the system's
progress, and additional watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas tonight or on Friday

3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding over
portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, northern Venezuela,
and the island chain of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao during the next
day or two. Heavy rains and the potential for flash flooding and
mudslides are expected to spread to portions of Central America this
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 11.6N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0600Z 12.0N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 07/1800Z 12.6N 73.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.0N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 13.0N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 13.1N 81.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 13.3N 84.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1800Z 14.8N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 062037
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 68.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela
border

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor
the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings
could be required tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.6 North, longitude 68.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is
expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern
Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday
morning. The system is then forecast to move across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, moving near San Andres and Providencia
Islands Saturday night, and approaching the coast of Nicaragua on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system
is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm by
tonight. The system is then expected to become a hurricane by
Saturday night as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on observations from Bonaire and Curacao.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia
within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical
storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the
northwestern coast of Venezuela today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches
Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches.
Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Southwest Costa Rica and Extreme Western Panama...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. There is
also the potential for life-threatening mudslides across portions of
Central America this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica,
Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast
of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 062036
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA EASTWARD TO THE
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 68.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 68.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.0N 70.7W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.6N 73.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.0N 76.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 79.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.1N 81.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.3N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 14.8N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 68.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 061745
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SAN ANDRES, PROVIDENCIA, AND SANTA
CATALINA ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 67.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Watch for San
Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela
border

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor
the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings
could be required tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 67.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is
expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern
Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday
morning. The system is then forecast to move across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, moving near San Andres and Providencia
Islands Saturday night, and approaching the coast of Nicaragua on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
system could become a tropical depression by tonight, and is
forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is then
expected to become a hurricane by Sunday as it approaches the coast
of Nicaragua.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches)
based on observations from Bonaire.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
Colombia within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical
storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the
northwestern coast of Venezuela today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches.
Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica,
Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast
of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 061453
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

A broad area of low pressure continues to move westward across the
far southeastern Caribbean Sea, with an expansive area of deep
convection stretching across northern South America and the
adjacent waters. The system does not appear to have a well-defined
center and therefore cannot yet be designated as a tropical
depression. However, the risk of tropical storm force winds has
increased for portions of the northern coast of South America, and
advisories are therefore being initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Thirteen. The initial intensity is 30 kt based on ASCAT
data from last evening.

With the low remaining broad, the center is difficult to locate.
It's estimated to be over water just north of Venezuela based on
extrapolation, although it should be noted that stronger turning is
becoming evident in the cloud pattern a little farther south over
land. The track forecast reasoning is straightforward. Strong low-
to mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico is
expected to steer the disturbance westward along the northern coast
of South American and then across the southwestern Caribbean Sea
during the next 3 day or so, likely reaching the coast of Central
America sometime on Sunday. The track guidance is tightly clustered
during that period, with a little bit of speed differences, and the
official forecast track lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus
aids.

Land interaction will likely modulate the system's development over
the next 24 hours or so, both its designation as a tropical cyclone
and potential intensification. Intensity guidance is in fairly
good agreement that a well-defined center could form by tonight,
assuming the system is still over water, with winds potentially
increasing to tropical storm force by Friday morning. Once the
system clears land on Friday, low to moderate shear and warm waters
of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius should foster more significant
development, with the system forecast to become a hurricane before
it reaches the coast of Central America on Sunday. The NHC
intensity forecast is near a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus
aids, although it's important to note that some intensity models,
including HWRF and the ECMWF-based SHIPS, are as much as 15 kt
higher at 72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia tonight and early Friday, where a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Gusts to tropical storm
force are possible across portions of northern Venezuela, Aruba,
Curacao, and Bonaire through early Friday.

2. The system is expected to strengthen when it moves over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and interests in San Andres,
Providencia, and portions of Central America should closely monitor
its progress. Watches could be required for portions of that area
later today or tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in
portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, northern Venezuela,
Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao during the next day or so. Heavy
rains, and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides, are
expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 11.4N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0000Z 11.8N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 07/1200Z 12.3N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR GUAJIRA PENINSULA
36H 08/0000Z 12.9N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 08/1200Z 13.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 12.9N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 12.8N 82.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 13.8N 86.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1200Z 15.6N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 061452
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WESTWARD
TO RIOHACHA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR ON
FRIDAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 67.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 67.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 11.8N 69.0W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.3N 71.9W...NEAR GUAJIRA PENINSULA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.9N 74.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.9N 80.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.8N 82.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 13.8N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 15.6N 91.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 67.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 061453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 67.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward
to Riohacha.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

Interests in San Andres, Providencia, and the coasts of Nicaragua
and Honduras should monitor the progress of the disturbance.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today or on
Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 11.4 North, longitude 67.0 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of
northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia
through Friday morning. The system is then forecast to move across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea and approach the coast of Nicaragua
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system
could become a tropical depression by tonight, and is forecast to
become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is then expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday as it approaches the coast of
Nicaragua.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
Colombia within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical
storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the
northwestern coast of Venezuela later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches.
Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica,
Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast
of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>