Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for MARIO-25
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (MARIO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 23.3N 118.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 118.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.7N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 25.6N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.3N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 118.4W.
17SEP25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
566 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 9 FEET.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 170234
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Mario has not produced any deep convection for more than 12 hours.
The system is now over sea-surface temperatures of 23C and
southwesterly wind shear is increasing. All guidance is in good
agreement that the remnant low of Mario will continue to weaken and
dissipate on Thursday.

The remnant low of Mario is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this
general motion is expected to continue, with a slight decrease in
forward speed until dissipation, as Mario is steered by the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit to
the northeast, or right, of the previous forecast, closer to most
of the latest consensus models.

While the remnant low of Mario is forecast to dissipate well to
the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther
north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid
to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash
flooding will be possible by Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 170233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...
...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 118.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario
was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 118.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a
decrease in forward speed over the next day.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. The remnants of Mario will continue to weaken,
with dissipation expected by Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 170233
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 118.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 162200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (MARIO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (MARIO) WARNING NR 017
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 22.6N 117.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 117.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.9N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.0N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.5N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
162200Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 117.9W.
16SEP25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
606 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 162032
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Deep convection around Mario has dissipated with an exposed center
visible on satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer pass
indicates Mario has weakened to a depression, and thus the initial
intensity was lowered to 30 kt.

Visible satellite imagery has allowed for a more precise initial
position of Mario for this advisory, with the location continuing
the trend of being a bit farther southwest than anticipated. As
Mario continues to weaken and lose vertical structure, the
expectation is that the shallow low-level circulation will slow
down and feel less of an impact from the deep-layer southerly flow.
This should result in the low-level circulation staying farther
west and the mid-level remnants going northward. An initial
westward adjustment was made to the track to account for the
farther southwest initial position, otherwise minimal changes were
made to the previous track.

Mario will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and
increasing shear. Given the lack of convection, the expectation is
that Mario will become a post-tropical remnant low tonight.
Thereafter, the low should dissipate into a trough by 36-48 h.

While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to
the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther
north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid
to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash
flooding will be possible by Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 23.9N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1800Z 25.0N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 25.5N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 162031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025

...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 117.7W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY.

SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MARIO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 162031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.9N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.0N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 25.5N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIO) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIO) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 22.3N 116.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 116.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.7N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.9N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 25.8N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.0N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161600Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 117.2W. 16SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 13E
(MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 624 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z,
171000Z AND 171600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 161450
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Convection associated with Mario continues to diminish this morning
as the system moves into cooler waters and encounters increasing
southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
are decreasing, and thus the initial intensity was lowered to 40 kt
this advisory.

The initial location of Mario remains a bit uncertain, although a
recent microwave pass from shortly after 09Z indicated the system
is likely farther southwest than anticipated. As Mario continues to
weaken and lose vertical structure, the expectation is that the
shallow low-level circulation will slow down and feel less of an
impact from the deep-layer southerly flow. This should result in
an increasingly sheared system, with the low-level circulation
staying farther west and the mid-level remnants going northward.
Given this, the latest track forecast is slightly west of the
previous forecast, generally remaining on the western side of the
track guidance.

Mario will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and
increasing shear. As the low-level and mid-level circulation
decouple, the system will lose its organized convection and should
become a post-tropical remnant low as soon as tonight. Thereafter,
the low should dissipate into a trough by 48-60 h.

While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to
the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther
north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid
to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash
flooding will be possible by Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 22.7N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 23.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 24.9N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 25.8N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 161448
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
BY THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 117.2W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 117.2 West. Mario is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Mario will continue to weaken and is expected
to become a post-tropical remnant low within the next day.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 161447
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 117.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 117.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.7N 118.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.9N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.8N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIO) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 115.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 115.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.2N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 24.6N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.6N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.3N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.7N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161000Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 116.1W. 16SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 13E
(MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND
171000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 160839
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

After going a few hours with limited convection, Mario has had a
recent convective burst near its estimated center. Its structure
overall seems to be gradually degrading, with little in the way of
banding features, and it appears the tropical cyclone is slowly
succumbing to the increasingly negative thermodynamic conditions.
Both subjective and objective intensity estimates have been
decreasing, and the initial intensity will follow suit, lowering to
45 kt this advisory.

Without much recent microwave or scatterometer data to go on, the
estimated motion remains a somewhat uncertain 310/10 kt. Mario
should continue to move along the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge centered over northern Mexico for the next day or so, but will
slow down as it loses its vertical structure. By the end of the
forecast the shallow low-level circulation will likely drift very
slowly. The latest track forecast is slightly west of the previous
one after 24 hours, electing to remain close to a blend of the
latest HCCA and GDMI guidance aids.

Mario is now crossing the 26 degree C sea-surface temperature
isotherm and cooler waters lie ahead, in addition to a stable dry
atmosphere and increasing southwesterly shear. Thus, weakening
should continue, and Mario is likely to lose all of its organized
convection in about 24 hours as its mid-level circulation decouples
and continues propagating off to the north. The small remnant low
left behind should open up into a trough in 60-72 h. This forecast
is in good agreement with the intensity guidance aid envelope.

While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to
the south of California, its remnant mid-level moisture will likely
spread further north, affecting portions of southern California and
Baja California later this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 21.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 23.2N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 24.6N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 25.6N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 26.7N 120.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 160838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...MARIO WEAKENING AND ITS TIME IS FLEETING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 115.7W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 115.7 West. Mario is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to
become a remnant low in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 160837
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 115.7W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 115.7W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.2N 117.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.6N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.7N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 160234
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

After its strengthening episode earlier today, Mario has begun a
weakening trend. There has been a dramatic decrease in the
coverage and intensity of the associated deep convection, making
Dvorak classifications problematic. The lastest subjective and
objective intensity estimates vary substantially, and the advisory
intensity is set at a rather uncertain 50 kt. Given the decrease in
convection, this may be a generous estimate. Hopefully an upcoming
scatterometer pass will provide more information on the strength of
the cyclone.

There is a fair amount of scatter in the center fixes, and my best
estimate for initial motion is 310/11 kt. Mario should continue to
move along the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure
system centered over northern Mexico for the next couple of
days. The official track forecast is just slightly to the right of
the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus model,
HCCA, guidance.

Mario will be traversing progressively cooler waters for the next
couple of days, with the SSTs below the system dropping below
24 deg C by late tomorrow. Moreover, increasingly strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to affect the system
for the next 48 hours. The official forecast calls for the system
to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours, however if the current
trend in deep convection persists, this could occur sooner than
that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 21.5N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 160233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 115.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 115.0 West. Mario is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Mario should
become a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 160231
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 115.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 152034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

The satellite presentation has improved with Mario during the day,
with a more circular central dense overcast and consistent
convection. A recent 1838Z GPM microwave pass also shows the
development of some inner-core features. Subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates range from 45-65 kt, a bit higher than earlier, so
the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory.

Mario is now moving northwestward (305/11 kt), steered between a
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its
northwest. The most notable thing about the track forecast is what
happens when Mario becomes a remnant low in a couple of days.
Model guidance has been leaning more to the northeast during the
past few cycles as they seem to have caught onto a more vertically
intact Mario. While the new official forecast has been shifted to
the north, it remains on the western side of the model consensus,
closest to the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind solutions.

The intensity forecast is a little tricky for Mario with it soon
crossing into cooler waters with higher shear. While the forecast
shows weakening, it could hang on a bit stronger in the short-term
if it is able to take advantage of its primitive inner-core. Mario
should begin to weaken in earnest on Tuesday when it gets over cold
waters with much higher shear, causing it to lose convection in
about 36 h and totally dissipate by 72h. The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, between the model consensus and the
HFIP Corrected Consensus model HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 20.8N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 21.8N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 23.3N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 24.4N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 17/1800Z 25.4N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 152033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM MST MON SEP 15 2025

...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 114.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY, WITH WEAKENING LIKELY TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY. MARIO IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 152033
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 114.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 114.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.8N 115.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.3N 117.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.4N 118.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.4N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 114.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 151435
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

Satellite images show that Mario has changed little since the
previous advisory, though recently the deep convection has been
bursting near the center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
remain near 45 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS generally
a little higher. Thus, the current intensity will remain 50 kt for
this advisory.

Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 300 degrees, at 10 kt. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple
of days while the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. The biggest
question is what happens to the remnants of Mario in a few days,
with the models in poor agreement on whether it turns more to the
north, like the GFS, or towards the west, like the HWRF or GDMI.
For now, the official forecast will stay closer to the westernmost
model cluster and assume the weak cyclone doesn't feel stronger
mid-level southerly flow. The new forecast is a touch to the
right of the previous one.

The storm has a limited window for any strengthening within light
shear conditions and warm waters. However, there are plenty of
stable stratocumulus clouds on satellite just northwest of the
circulation, suggesting it doesn't have much time left for
intensification. By Tuesday, Mario should begin to weaken as it
crosses over much cooler waters with higher shear. Mario should
lose all deep convection after 36h and become a remnant low by 48h.
The new NHC forecast prediction is slightly decreased from the last
one and ends up pretty close to the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 20.0N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 20.8N 114.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 151434
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

...MARIO CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM
SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 113.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 113.2 West. Mario is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion with a gradual turn towards the northwest is expected
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little significant change in strength is anticipated today,
followed by gradual weakening beginning on Tuesday. Mario could
become a post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 151433
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 150845
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

The satellite presentation of Mario has improved since the previous
advisory, with a burst of deep convection and very cold cloud tops
persisting over the low-level center. Upper-level outflow appears
well established in all quadrants, and more defined curved banding
is developing on the northern side of the convective burst.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and
2.5/35 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
have ranged from 40 to 60 kt and have been trending upward. A blend
of these data, along with the improved satellite appearance,
supports raising the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory.

Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 10 kt. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple
of days as the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. Forward speed should
decrease after 48 h as Mario weakens and becomes more influenced by
the low-level flow. The forecast track is close to the previous one
through 24 h, then shifts slightly eastward thereafter to better
match the consensus guidance. The track is closest to the GDMI aid,
which lies between the consensus and the prior forecast.

Mario will remain in a moist, low-shear environment over warm waters
for the next 12 h, which should allow for some additional
strengthening. Thereafter, the cyclone will move near the 26C
isotherm and encounter increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind
shear, initiating a weakening trend. Steady weakening is then
expected as Mario moves over cooler waters and into stronger shear.
The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 h,
with dissipation likely by 96 h. The official intensity forecast is
near the upper end of the guidance through 24 h, then trends toward
the consensus thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 19.4N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 20.1N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 21.4N 115.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 24.0N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1800Z 25.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 26.0N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 150844
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM
SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 112.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 112.3 West. Mario is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion with a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected today, with steady weakening
beginning by late tonight and continuing on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 150844
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 112.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 112.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.4N 115.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.0N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.2N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 112.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 0 19.1N 111.5W 1003 24
1200UTC 15.09.2025 12 19.8N 112.9W 1003 26
0000UTC 16.09.2025 24 20.5N 114.8W 1003 27
1200UTC 16.09.2025 36 21.9N 116.4W 1005 23
0000UTC 17.09.2025 48 23.7N 118.1W 1006 27
1200UTC 17.09.2025 60 25.8N 119.5W 1008 20
0000UTC 18.09.2025 72 26.9N 119.8W 1009 16
1200UTC 18.09.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.4N 74.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 0 32.4N 74.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 15.09.2025 12 33.3N 73.9W 1009 32
0000UTC 16.09.2025 24 34.4N 73.6W 1009 33
1200UTC 16.09.2025 36 35.6N 75.2W 1008 34
0000UTC 17.09.2025 48 36.2N 76.3W 1008 32
1200UTC 17.09.2025 60 36.3N 76.1W 1012 25
0000UTC 18.09.2025 72 37.1N 76.0W 1013 22
1200UTC 18.09.2025 84 37.7N 75.4W 1013 21
0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 18.0N 48.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2025 72 18.0N 48.8W 1008 38
1200UTC 18.09.2025 84 20.0N 51.3W 1007 42
0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 21.2N 53.2W 1007 38
1200UTC 19.09.2025 108 22.7N 55.1W 1008 30
0000UTC 20.09.2025 120 22.5N 57.2W 1008 32
1200UTC 20.09.2025 132 23.1N 58.3W 1009 31
0000UTC 21.09.2025 144 23.3N 59.8W 1008 33
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 23.9N 61.0W 1008 35
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 24.3N 63.1W 1007 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.0N 134.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2025 84 12.4N 133.1W 1008 24
0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 12.4N 132.0W 1006 24
1200UTC 19.09.2025 108 12.4N 130.6W 1007 23
0000UTC 20.09.2025 120 12.8N 129.2W 1007 22
1200UTC 20.09.2025 132 12.8N 128.1W 1009 17
0000UTC 21.09.2025 144 12.7N 127.0W 1009 17
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 12.5N 126.4W 1010 15
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 12.0N 126.6W 1009 15

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.5N 34.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 13.5N 34.4W 1010 24
1200UTC 19.09.2025 108 13.8N 37.3W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.09.2025 120 14.3N 40.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 20.09.2025 132 15.0N 42.9W 1011 25
0000UTC 21.09.2025 144 16.0N 46.0W 1012 27
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 16.7N 49.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 17.7N 51.8W 1011 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 14.4N 34.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 14.7N 34.9W 1011 33
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 14.7N 37.3W 1009 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150400


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 150400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2025 19.1N 111.5W WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2025 19.8N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2025 20.5N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2025 21.9N 116.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2025 23.7N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2025 25.8N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2025 26.9N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.4N 74.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2025 32.4N 74.5W WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2025 33.3N 73.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2025 34.4N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2025 35.6N 75.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2025 36.2N 76.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2025 36.3N 76.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2025 37.1N 76.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2025 37.7N 75.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 18.0N 48.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2025 18.0N 48.8W WEAK
12UTC 18.09.2025 20.0N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2025 21.2N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2025 22.7N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2025 22.5N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2025 23.1N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2025 23.3N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2025 23.9N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2025 24.3N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.0N 134.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2025 12.4N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2025 12.4N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2025 12.4N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2025 12.8N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2025 12.8N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2025 12.7N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2025 12.5N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2025 12.0N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.5N 34.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2025 13.5N 34.4W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2025 13.8N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2025 14.3N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2025 15.0N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2025 16.0N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2025 16.7N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2025 17.7N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 14.4N 34.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.09.2025 14.7N 34.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.09.2025 14.7N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150400


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 150238
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

...MARIO MAINTAINING INTENSITY WHILE PASSING NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 111.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 111.5 West. Mario is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected into Monday, followed by a
weakening trend beginning Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 150237
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

The overall organization of Mario has been relatively steady through
the afternoon and evening. Wind observations from Socorro Island
indicate that the center of the tropical storm is passing north of
the island. Recent satellite imagery suggests easterly wind shear
has been tilting Mario's vortex and displacing deep convection to
the west of the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak estimates of
3.0/45 kt from TAFB, 2.5/35 kt from SAB, and observed winds on
Socorro Islands support maintaining the initial intensity of Mario
at 40 kt for this advisory. The data from Socorro Island, which was
within 30 n mi of the center, emphasize Mario's small size, with
reported sustained winds of 20 kt and gusts to 27 kt since the last
advisory.

The initial position proved difficult to analyze, however the data
from Socorro Island have helped to pin down the location of the
low-level center, which matches the previous forecast track. The
cyclone is moving slightly faster to the west-northwest at 295/8 kt.
This general motion should continue for the next few days as Mario
is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. The
track forecast is largely the same as the previous one through the
next 36 hrs, then adjusted slightly east in line with the latest
consensus aids.

Mario is still forecast to slightly intensify over the next 24
hours, as it moves through an environment of warm sea surface
temperatures, plentiful mid-level moisture, and low shear. The
earlier bout of easterly shear may already be subsiding, as a new
convective burst begins closer to the cyclone's low-level center.
The intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, in agreement
with the consensus aids. Beyond 24 hours, Mario will cross the 26C
isotherm, southwesterly wind shear will increase, and mid-level
moisture will diminish. This unfavorable environment should cause
Mario to weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low
by 60 hours, with dissipation by around 96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.2N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 19.9N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 20.9N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 22.1N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 24.7N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 25.4N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 150236
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
800 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2025

...MARIO MAINTAINING INTENSITY WHILE PASSING NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND..


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 111.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/MAHONEY=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 150236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 112.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 116.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.4N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/MAHONEY=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 142033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

A large, cold convective burst formed over the center of Mario
around 13Z this morning and subsequently expanded, and the burst has
persisted since that time. A 1657 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed several
34-38 kt vectors within 30 miles of Mario's center. The latest
subjective Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt
from SAB, while recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in
the 40-45 kt range. Winds at Socorro Island, located less than 30 n
mi west-southwest of the center, are up to 20 kt gusting to 29 kt,
with a 1006 mb pressure. The initial intensity is increased to 40
kt for this advisory.

The aforementioned ASCAT pass and surface observations from Socorro
Island have been helpful at estimating the initial position of
Mario, which is slightly to the east of the previous NHC forecast.
The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be slowly toward
the west-northwest at 300/6 kt. This general motion should continue
for the next few days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer
ridging centered over Mexico. The GFS and Google DeepMind models
are on the right, or north side of the guidance envelope, whereas
the ECMWF and HCCA lie on the left or southern side of the guidance.
The latest NHC forecast is adjusted slightly to the right, or east,
of the previous official forecast, fairly close to a blend of the
latest HCCA and TVCE models.

Mario will continue to be in a favorable environment for
strengthening for another 24-30 hours, with low shear under 10 kt,
warm sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of mid-level moisture. By
hour 30, the sea-surface temperatures will be below 27C and then
below 26C by hour 36. Around the same time, southwesterly shear
will begin increasing while the mid-level moisture and instability
plummet. These conditions favor the commencement of weakening on
Monday night. All model guidance, including the latest hi-res
hurricane models, do not show more than about 10 kt of additional
strengthening. In fact, the latest intensity forecast is at the
high end of the model guidance envelope through 24 h. Given the
favorable environment for the next 24 h, a higher peak intensity in
the 55-60 kt range should not be ruled out. By 36 h, the NHC
forecast is similar to the previous one, which is closer to the
middle of the guidance envelope. The cyclone should become a
remnant low in 48-60 h and dissipate just beyond 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 19.6N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 21.5N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 22.8N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 24.0N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z 24.9N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 142032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
200 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2025

...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 110.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 142032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.7W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.7W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.6N 111.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.5N 115.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.8N 117.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.0N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 141443
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

Overnight and this morning, convection has increased in both
coverage and organization with the remnants of Mario, which is now
just east-southeast of Socorro Island. Earlier scatterometer data
from a Metop-B pass at 0428 UTC indicated that a well-defined center
had reformed with a peak wind retrieval of 27 kt. Given the
improvement of the system's structure on satellite imagery since
that time, it appears that Mario is now on its second life as a
tropical cyclone. There was some question as to if this system was
fully Mario, or some combination with another disturbance it is
interacting with embedded in the monsoon trough to the south.
However, there appears to be enough continuity between the prior
circulation we were tracking near the coast of Mexico on Friday and
the reformation of this new center to indicate this system is the
same entity. The initial intensity this advisory is being set to 35
kt, in good agreement with the 12 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt,
a DPRINT estimate of 36 kt at 13 UTC, and a recent pressure
observation of 1005 mb at Socorro Island, which appears to be just
to the northwest of the tropical storm.

Mario is estimated to be moving slowly to the west-northwest at
285/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next several
days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered
over Mexico. Beyond 48 hours, Mario will likely become a shallow
tropical cyclone and bend more westward before it dissipates in 3-4
days. The NHC track forecast is in fairly good agreement with the
guidance aids, and generally is close to the simple and corrected
consensus aids.

Mario is in a favorable environment currently, with low shear under
10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures between 28-30C, and plenty of
mid-level moisture. These favorable conditions persist for about 36
hours, and intensification is shown in the forecast, not that far
off the most recent HAFS-B forecast. Afterwards, Mario will cross a
very sharp temperature gradient while vertical wind shear also
increases out of the southwest. Thus, Mario will likely weaken
quickly between 48-60 h, losing its organized convection to become a
shallow remnant low by 60 h, and dissipating entirely in 3-4 days.
The NHC intensity forecast is a bit on the high side of the overall
guidance envelope, but is close to the peak intensity of the latest
HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.5N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 141438
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
800 AM MST SUN SEP 14 2025

...MARIO HAS A SECOND LIFE AS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 110.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 141437
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 110.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 140446

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.09.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 105.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2025 19.0N 105.7W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 32.6N 75.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2025 33.0N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2025 33.9N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2025 35.2N 76.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2025 36.3N 77.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2025 36.4N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.0N 139.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2025 12.0N 139.7W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2025 12.5N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2025 12.6N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2025 12.4N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2025 12.2N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2025 12.0N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2025 12.3N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2025 12.8N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.4N 46.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2025 16.4N 46.7W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2025 17.5N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2025 19.2N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2025 20.4N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2025 21.2N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2025 23.1N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2025 25.3N 57.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2025 27.3N 57.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 15.6N 36.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.09.2025 15.6N 36.1W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140446


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 140446

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.09.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 105.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2025 0 19.0N 105.7W 1008 17
1200UTC 14.09.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 32.6N 75.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2025 48 33.0N 75.9W 1012 33
1200UTC 16.09.2025 60 33.9N 75.8W 1013 28
0000UTC 17.09.2025 72 35.2N 76.1W 1012 29
1200UTC 17.09.2025 84 36.3N 77.6W 1012 25
0000UTC 18.09.2025 96 36.4N 79.0W 1013 22
1200UTC 18.09.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.0N 139.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2025 84 12.0N 139.7W 1009 22
0000UTC 18.09.2025 96 12.5N 139.9W 1009 23
1200UTC 18.09.2025 108 12.6N 140.1W 1008 27
0000UTC 19.09.2025 120 12.4N 140.2W 1007 29
1200UTC 19.09.2025 132 12.2N 140.2W 1007 24
0000UTC 20.09.2025 144 12.0N 140.4W 1006 27
1200UTC 20.09.2025 156 12.3N 140.1W 1007 25
0000UTC 21.09.2025 168 12.8N 140.2W 1007 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.4N 46.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2025 84 16.4N 46.7W 1006 41
0000UTC 18.09.2025 96 17.5N 48.3W 1006 44
1200UTC 18.09.2025 108 19.2N 50.6W 1006 45
0000UTC 19.09.2025 120 20.4N 53.0W 1006 47
1200UTC 19.09.2025 132 21.2N 54.1W 1005 39
0000UTC 20.09.2025 144 23.1N 55.3W 1004 45
1200UTC 20.09.2025 156 25.3N 57.1W 999 55
0000UTC 21.09.2025 168 27.3N 57.4W 996 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 15.6N 36.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2025 168 15.6N 36.1W 1012 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140446


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 130559
TCDEP3

Remnants Of Mario Special Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
1200 AM CST Sat Sep 13 2025

Recent ASCAT-C wind data and proxy-visible satellite images indicate
that Mario no longer has a well-defined circulation center and has
degenerated into a surface trough offshore of southwestern Mexico.
Therefore, this is the final NHC advisory on the system. The
remnants of Mario are forecast to become absorbed within a broader
circulation to the southwest during the next couple of days.

For additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0600Z 18.3N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 130556
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Mario Special Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
1200 AM CST Sat Sep 13 2025

...MARIO IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 105.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the remnants of Mario were located near
latitude 18.3 North, longitude 105.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Mario will lead to additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches for Jalisco, with storm total amounts up to 6 inches
locally through this morning. This brings a risk of flash flooding,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 130555
TCMEP3

REMNANTS OF MARIO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0600 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.3W AT 13/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.3W AT 13/0600Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 105.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ63 KNHC 130532
TCUEP3

Remnants of Mario Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
1130 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

...MARIO IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LAST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...

Recent satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate
that Mario no longer has a well-defined center of circulation.
Therefore, a special, final, advisory will be issued by 1200 AM
CST...0600 UTC, in lieu of the 0900 UTC advisory.

SUMMARY OF 1130 PM CST...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 105.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 130233
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
900 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

The low-level center of Mario was apparent this afternoon near the
convective mass just off of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Since
that time, satellite imagery shows that a large low-pressure area is
developing to the south of Mario, with vorticity centers noted near
17N 106W and 15N 103W. This is causing the small circulation of
Mario to lose its identity as it seems to be becoming a part of the
larger circulation. In addition, the convection near the center has
decreased during the past several hours, and there has been a
corresponding decrease in satellite intensity estimates. Based on
these developments, Mario is downgraded to a tropical depression
with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The dynamical models show several possible scenarios for the
evolution of Mario during the next few days. The ECMWF and Canadian
models show the system dissipating as it becomes absorbed into the
larger low during the next day or two. The UKMET does not absorb
Mario into the low, but shows it degenerating into a trough and
moving northwestward and then westward around the north side of the
low. The GFS, in contrast, uses the Mario circulation to become the
center of the larger low, although it keeps the winds below 35 kt
through the forecast period. The regional hurricane models show the
possibility of a tropical storm re-forming near or west of Socorro
Island in a few days, although it is unclear whether this
development is related to the current Mario circulation. Given
these scenarios, the current trends, and the previous forecast, the
new intensity forecast calls for Mario to continue as a depression
for 36 h before dissipating inside the larger low. However, an
alternative scenario is that the circulation could degenerate to a
trough at any time.

The initial motion is 290/13. If Mario manages to maintain its
identity, it should turn more westward during the next 36 h as it
moves around the north side of the larger low.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Mario will impact Jalisco and
nearby areas into Saturday morning, which could result in flash
flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.

2. While all coastal watches have been discontinued for Mexico,
gusty winds are possible elsewhere along the coasts of western
Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. Interests in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Mario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 18.1N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 18.8N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.2N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.7N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 130233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
900 PM CST FRI SEP 12 2025

...MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT STARTS MOVING
AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 104.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
(24 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF MARIO SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND MARIO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR JALISCO, WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 6 INCHES LOCALLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, AND COLIMA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 130232
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.8N 106.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.2N 108.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.7N 109.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 122331
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
600 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

...MARIO STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 103.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Mario.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 103.8 West. Mario is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next several hours. A slower
motion toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight through
the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move
roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then
begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mario will lead to additional
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, for
especially Jalisco through Saturday morning. This brings a risk of
flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of Michoacan for the next few hours. Gusty winds are
possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 122034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
300 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

Mario continues to parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico. An
afternoon scatterometer pass showed that Mario is still located just
off the coast, with deep convection periodically forming near the
low-level center and being sheared off to the west. Peak wind
vectors from the ASCAT pass were only 25 kt, however, the instrument
is likely unable to resolve Mario's peak winds due to the small size
of the storm. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, closest to
the TAFB Dvorak estimate of T2.5.

Numerical models are still struggling to forecast Mario due to the
storm's tiny circulation and proximity to the Mexican coastline.
The European global model, Google DeepMind, and their ensembles
generally show the system either moving inland or opening into a
trough just offshore later today. Of the systems that maintain
Mario for longer into the forecast period, the intensity guidance
envelope has trended downward this cycle. Moderate vertical wind
shear is expected to plague the system for the next day or so, which
should limit any strengthening. If Mario can survive this stage,
the environmental conditions are forecast to briefly become more
conducive for some gradual intensification early next week. By the
end of the forecast period, cool sea surface temperatures and
increasing shear should quickly weaken and dissipate the small
system. Based on the latest guidance, the NHC intensity forecast
now shows Mario becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 and
dissipating by day 5.

Mario continues to move west-northwestward at an estimated 12 kt,
moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. A mid-level ridge
to the north is expected to keep Mario on a west-northwestward
trajectory, but at a slower forward motion, through the end of the
forecast period. The models that maintain Mario's circulation are
general well clustered, and only minor adjustments were made to the
NHC track forecast.

Given Mario's very close proximity to the coast of Mexico, there is
a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for a small segment of the coast
from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Mario will impact
Jalisco and nearby areas into Saturday morning, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of Michoacan today while Mario moves roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere
along the coasts of western Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through
tonight. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the
progress of Mario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 17.4N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 17.8N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 19.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 21.3N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 122033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
300 PM CST FRI SEP 12 2025

...TINY TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 102.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MARIO SHOULD MOVE
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARIO IS A TINY TROPICAL STORM, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, FOR
ESPECIALLY JALISCO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MICHOACAN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, AND COLIMA
THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 122032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 102.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 102.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 102.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 104.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 110.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.3N 114.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 102.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 121753
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
1200 PM CST FRI SEP 12 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
MICHOACAN...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 102.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MARIO SHOULD MOVE
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MARIO IS A TINY TROPICAL STORM, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: MARIO WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES, ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS BRINGS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MICHOACAN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, AND COLIMA
THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 121601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 103.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2025 17.1N 103.0W WEAK
00UTC 13.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 18.5N 45.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2025 18.5N 45.0W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2025 19.9N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2025 22.6N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2025 24.3N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2025 25.2N 52.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121601


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 121601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 103.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2025 0 17.1N 103.0W 1010 21
0000UTC 13.09.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 18.5N 45.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2025 120 18.5N 45.0W 1006 39
0000UTC 18.09.2025 132 19.9N 46.2W 1006 39
1200UTC 18.09.2025 144 22.6N 48.3W 1006 43
0000UTC 19.09.2025 156 24.3N 50.8W 1006 36
1200UTC 19.09.2025 168 25.2N 52.2W 1005 41


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121601


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 121444
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
900 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

37-GHz AMSR2 data from 0823 UTC did an excellent job showing the
well-defined center of the small tropical cyclone about 20 n mi off
the coast of Guerrero, Mexico. As noted in the previous forecast,
an ASCAT pass from overnight showed maximum winds just over 30 kt.
The convective organization has been increasing since that time,
and the depression has powered up to Tropical Storm Mario with
maximum winds estimated at 35 kt. This is supported by a T2.5/35
kt from TAFB and 35-40 kt objective estimates from ADT, AiDT, and
SATCON.

Model guidance is having a challenging time simulating Mario's
future due to the storm's small size and proximity to Mexico's
coastal topography. Some models, including the ECWMF and many of
the Google DeepMind ensemble members, show the system moving inland
and dissipating today. Assuming Mario stays offshore, it is likely
to contend with moderate shear out of the north or northeast for the
next 36 hours while moving over very warm water temperatures around
30 degrees Celsius. Shear is expected to be low beyond 36 hours,
and some strengthening is therefore shown in the NHC intensity
forecast. Some of the hurricane models continue to show Mario
reaching hurricane strength, but given the large degree of
uncertainty, the NHC forecast leans much closer to the IVCN
consensus at this time. Mario is expected to reach colder waters by
day 5, and transition to a post-tropical cyclone is shown at that
time.

Mario has been moving faster toward the west-northwest (295/12 kt),
moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. A mid-level ridge
extending across northern Mexico westward over the Pacific waters
is expected to keep Mario on a west-northwestward trajectory, but
at a slower speed, for at least the next 4 days. The models that
maintain Mario's identity agree on this scenario, and no
significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast.

Given Mario's very close proximity to the coast of Mexico, the
government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a small
segment of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Mario will impact
southern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash
flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of Michoacan today while Mario moves roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere
along the coasts of western Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through
tonight. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the
progress of Mario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 17.2N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.7N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 18.2N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 18.7N 107.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.1N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 21.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 121444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
900 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

...MINI MARIO FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
MICHOACAN...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 101.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Mario.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 101.9 West. Mario is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through this evening. A slower
motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight through the
weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move
roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then
begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Mario will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts of 6 inches, across southern Mexico through Sunday.
This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of Michoacan today. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along
coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima
through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 121444
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.9W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.9W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 103.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.2N 105.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.7N 107.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.1N 111.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.5N 117.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 101.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 120836
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
300 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

The depression remains poorly organized tonight, with only small
areas of convection bursting to the west of the estimated low-level
center. Recent scatterometer data and surface observations indicate
the circulation remains very small. While believable scatterometer
winds up to about 30 kt were noted offshore in the northern
semicircle of the circulation, observations from the Acapulco
International Airport indicated these winds did not reach the coast
when the system made its closest approach earlier tonight. Since the
overall satellite presentation has slightly worsened since the
earlier scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward (295/10 kt), and the system
should maintain this heading during the next couple of days while
being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.
Later this weekend through early next week, the system is forecast
to move toward the northwest as it rounds the southwestern portion
of the steering ridge. The NHC track forecast through 60 h has been
nudged slightly northward this cycle, in agreement with the latest
multi-model consensus aids.

In the near term, only modest strengthening is forecast due to the
system's close proximity to land. Some models, including the GFS and
ECMWF, completely lose the circulation later today. But if the
system remains offshore and survives its close passage to the
southwestern coast of Mexico, the environment should become somewhat
more favorable for strengthening with weaker shear conditions over
warm waters. Overall, the intensity guidance trended much lower this
cycle. The updated NHC intensity forecast reflects this trend, but
remains on the high end of the guidance envelope. Future downward
adjustments may be necessary, and it cannot be ruled out that the
system dissipates before the end of the 5-day forecast period.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
will impact southern and southwestern Mexico through Sunday, which
could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher
terrain.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm today while
moving parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. While the
strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, gusty winds are
possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from
Acapulco to Manzanillo during the next day or so. Interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 16.5N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 17.0N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.6N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.1N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 18.6N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.0N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.5N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 120835
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
300 AM CST FRI SEP 12 2025

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 100.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.8
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
(19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES, ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E, PLEASE SEE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 120834
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 100.8W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 100.8W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 100.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 102.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.6N 104.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.6N 108.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.0N 109.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.5N 110.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 100.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 120400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.09.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 101.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2025 0 14.8N 101.5W 1009 16
1200UTC 12.09.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.7N 36.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2025 96 14.2N 37.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 16.09.2025 108 15.8N 38.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 17.09.2025 120 17.0N 41.9W 1006 38
1200UTC 17.09.2025 132 17.6N 43.1W 1006 41
0000UTC 18.09.2025 144 18.7N 44.9W 1006 43
1200UTC 18.09.2025 156 20.0N 46.7W 1006 43
0000UTC 19.09.2025 168 19.9N 48.8W 1007 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.9N 16.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2025 108 11.9N 16.7W 1008 35
0000UTC 17.09.2025 120 13.3N 19.7W 1008 29
1200UTC 17.09.2025 132 14.7N 23.2W 1008 28
0000UTC 18.09.2025 144 15.8N 26.7W 1009 32
1200UTC 18.09.2025 156 16.6N 29.8W 1010 27
0000UTC 19.09.2025 168 17.4N 31.9W 1010 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120359


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 120359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.09.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 101.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2025 14.8N 101.5W WEAK
12UTC 12.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.7N 36.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2025 14.2N 37.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2025 15.8N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2025 17.0N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2025 17.6N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2025 18.7N 44.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2025 20.0N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2025 19.9N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.9N 16.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2025 11.9N 16.7W WEAK
00UTC 17.09.2025 13.3N 19.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2025 14.7N 23.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2025 15.8N 26.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2025 16.6N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2025 17.4N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120359


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 120245
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
900 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025

The satellite appearance of Thirteen-E has improved some since the
previous advisory, with deep convection continuing to burst over or
near the estimated low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt and
2.0/30 kt. Meanwhile the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have
ranged from 28 to 35 kt since the previous advisory. Based on a
blend of these data, the initial intensity has been held, perhaps
conservatively, at 30 kt for this advisory package.

The depression is moving to the west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at
10 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico and Texas. A turn toward the northwest along with a
decrease in forward speed is expected over the weekend, as the
system moves along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level
ridge, with that motion continuing through day 5. The official
track forecast lies is very close to the previous advisory, roughly
between the corrected consensus HCCA and AI-Driven GDMI track aids.

The circulation of Thirteen-E remains very small, with an estimated
radius of the outermost closed isobar only 80 n mi, and this may be
generous. In the next couple of days, the global models suggest
that moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear, along with the
proximity to land, should limit the system's ability to intensify
significantly, and the intensity forecast only calls for some slow
strengthening. Over the weekend, environmental conditions should
become more favorable for intensification, as the system will be
farther offshore, over very warm water and surrounded by moist
mid-level air, while vertical wind shear will drop off to light
levels and become aligned with the motion of the cyclone. This
should lead to steady strengthening, with the system forecast to
become a hurricane by 72 hours. By day 5, cooler sea surface
temperatures and drier more stable environment should lead to a
weakening trend. The official intensity forecast lies on the higher
end of the intensity guidance envelope and closest to the AI-Driven
GDMI intensity aid.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
will impact southern and southwestern Mexico through Sunday, which
could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher
terrain.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
tonight, while moving parallel to the southern and southwestern
coasts of Mexico. While the strongest winds are expected to remain
offshore, gusty winds are possible along portions of the southern
and southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado through
Manzanillo during the next day or so. Interests in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 16.0N 99.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 16.5N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 17.1N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 17.6N 105.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 18.0N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 18.4N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 18.9N 109.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 20.7N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 120244
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
900 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 99.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 99.6
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the
depression will move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Slow
strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Thirteen-E is forecast to become a Tropical Storm later tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will lead to rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across
southern and southwestern Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk
of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Thirteen-E, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Gusty winds are possible over portions of the southern coast
of Mexico from Punta Maldonado through Manzanillo during the next
day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 120242
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.6W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.6W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 99.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 101.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.1N 103.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.6N 105.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 107.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.9N 109.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.7N 112.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 99.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 112033
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025

High resolution GOES visible satellite imagery throughout today
indicates that the disturbance south of Mexico has become better
organized. The system has a partially exposed low-level circulation
located near an area of bursting deep convection with cloud top
temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T2.5 and T2.0, respectively.
Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression is moving at an uncertain 300/5 kt. A mid-level
ridge to centered over northern Mexico and Texas should steer the
cyclone west-northwestward with an acceleration in forward speed
during the next few days. Over the weekend, the system should turn
more northwestward as it rounds the periphery of the ridge and
continue that motion through the end of the forecast period. There
is little cross-track variance in the guidance envelope, however, a
bit more of an along-track spread. The official track forecast lies
between the various consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance.

The new cyclone has a rather small circulation. In the next couple
of days, global models suggest vertical wind shear and the proximity
to land should limit the system's ability to strengthen. By the
weekend, environment conditions should become more conducive for
steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to reach
tropical storm strength in a day or so and become a hurricane by
day 3. Late in the forecast period, cooler sea surface temperatures
and dry mid-level humidities should induce a weakening trend. The
initial NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the
intensity guidance envelope.

Predicted tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain
offshore of the coast of Mexico. However, heavy rains and
potentially gusty winds are possible along portions of the
southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 15.5N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 16.1N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 16.7N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.3N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.2N 107.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 18.6N 109.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 22.1N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 112031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 98.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 98.8
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
(9 km/h) and this general motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm in a
day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will lead to rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across
southwest Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible over portions of the southern coast
of Mexico from Punta Maldonado through Manzanillo during the next
day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 112031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 98.8W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 98.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 98.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.1N 100.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.3N 104.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.2N 107.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.6N 109.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 98.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=