Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUCAS-21 in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands from 31 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC to 01 Feb 2021 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21

in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

01 Feb 2021 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUCAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	120 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (02 Feb 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)
Landfall	between 02 Feb 2021 18:00 - 03 Feb 2021 06:00 in New Caledonia

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	120 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	120 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	139	300 thousand	Few people	New Caledonia
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	157	510 thousand	10 thousand	New Caledonia
3	31 Jan 2021 12:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu
4	31 Jan 2021 18:00	130	400 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia
5	01 Feb 2021 00:00	111	280 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
6	01 Feb 2021 06:00	120	280 thousand	No people	New Caledonia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.9, 152.3
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.9, 153.2
3	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2600 people	-13.1, 155.2
4	31 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 157.2
5	01 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-14.1, 158.5
6	01 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-14.8, 160.9
6	01 Feb 2021 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	1700 people	-16.2, 163.1
6	02 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	270000 people	-18.1, 165.3
6	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	270000 people	-20.1, 166.5
6	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	270000 people	-22, 166.4	New Caledonia
6	04 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-23.8, 165.4
6	05 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-25.3, 163.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Wadrilla, New Caledonia. This height is estimated for 02 Feb 2021 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (62 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 01 Feb 2021 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Wadrilla	New Caledonia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Lekia	New Caledonia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Fayaoue	New Caledonia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Ognahu	New Caledonia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Wegnec St-Joseph	New Caledonia	0.4
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Teouta	New Caledonia	0.4
	03 Feb 2021 09:00	Tomo	New Caledonia	0.4
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Petit-Borindi	New Caledonia	0.4
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Mouly	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Bouloupari	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Nde	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Paita	New Caledonia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Losuia	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Ognat	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Saint-Gabriel	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Saint-Louis	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Dumbea	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 10:00	Nouville	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Doueoulou	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 10:00	Noumea	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 11:00	Comm. du Mont-Dore	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Thio	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 05:00	Prony	New Caledonia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Lahimoina	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Leileiafa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Pantava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Madaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Auneri	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Hekampan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Tagula	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Ouara	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Ouasse	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Griffin Point	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Station Ouaneko	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Bona Bona I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Rewe	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Gadaisu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Mamie	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Waho	New Caledonia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 06:00	Tiabet	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Hunete	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Kouaoua	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Donuwo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Lawes College	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 06:00	Poum-Plage	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Apeawa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Tovai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 05:00	Plum	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Goro	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Gogsiba	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 06:00	Arama	New Caledonia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.