Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
09 Sep 2018 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
    Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Sep 09:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (China)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 250 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 287 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      250 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 820000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
        Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
          GREEN
          		 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
          GREEN
          		 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
          GREEN
          		 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
          GREEN
          		 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
          GREEN
          		 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
          GREEN
          		 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
          GREEN
          		 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
          GREEN
          		 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
          GREEN
          		 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
          GREEN
          		 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
          GREEN
          		 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 no people 49000 people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
          ORANGE
          		 12 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 160000 people 210000 people 14.2, 145.7 Guam
          GREEN
          		 12 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 194 no people 160000 people 14, 142.7 Guam
          GREEN
          		 12 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 14.1, 140.1
          GREEN
          		 12 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.2, 137.4
          GREEN
          		 12 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 15.2, 132.4
          ORANGE
          		 12 13 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 250 660000 people 25.9 million people 16.9, 127.5 Philippines
          GREEN
          		 12 14 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 18.9, 122.6 Philippines
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Northern Mariana Is.
          Guam
          Philippines

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands
          Guam Guam
          Cagayan Valley Philippines
          Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
          Andersen AFB UAM 191 0
          A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Rota Northern Mariana Islands
          Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
          Apra Harbor Guam
          Port San Vicente Philippines
          Aparri PHAPR Philippines
          Abulog Philippines
          Calayan Philippines
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (46 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 09 Sep 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
          10 Sep 2018 07:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Upi Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Wright Philippines  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Pequit Philippines  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Pabanong Philippines  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Hinabangan Philippines  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Bangon Philippines  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Piti Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Asan Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Hagatna Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Sinajana Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Mongmong Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Yona Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Tamuning Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Barrigada Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Asbeco Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Adacao Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Mualbual Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Bikal Philippines  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Agat Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Talofofo Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 09:00 Ylig Guam  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Macalonud Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Catbalogan Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 17:00 San Andres Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Bagas Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 18:00 Babatngon Philippines  0.1