Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2018-000152-CHN
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 185 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 287 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to 97000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 15, 155.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.9, 152.1
GREEN
7 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 2 167 no people 210000 people 14.6, 148.8 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
7 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 97000 people 210000 people 14.3, 146.2 Guam
GREEN
7 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, 141.1
GREEN
7 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 15.6, 136.2
GREEN
7 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 17.6, 131.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Guam

Provinces

Region Province Country
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands
Guam Guam

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700
Dynasty 46 0
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands
Rota Northern Mariana Islands

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (37 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 08 Sep 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 17:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 17:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 15:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Oceanview Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Dededo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 South Acres Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Ipapao Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Upi Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Gayinero Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Asatdas Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Lupog Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 14:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Piti Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Asan Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Hagatna Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Sinajana Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Mongmong Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Yona Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Tamuning Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Barrigada Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Asbeco Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 18:00 Adacao Guam  0.1