Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for MANGKHUT-18 in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar from 07 Sep 2018 00:00 UTC to 10 Sep 2018 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18

in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar

10 Sep 2018 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2018-000152-CHN
Exposed countries	China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population	60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	287 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (10 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	250 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	287 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

250 km/h Current Max.

Up to 750000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Sep 2018 00:00	194	210 thousand	160 thousand	Guam
2	07 Sep 2018 06:00	204	210 thousand	160 thousand	Guam
3	07 Sep 2018 12:00	185	210 thousand	160 thousand	Guam
4	07 Sep 2018 18:00	213	210 thousand	160 thousand	Guam
5	08 Sep 2018 00:00	213	210 thousand	160 thousand	Guam
6	08 Sep 2018 06:00	176	210 thousand	170 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
7	08 Sep 2018 12:00	185	210 thousand	100 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
8	08 Sep 2018 18:00	250	210 thousand	10 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
9	09 Sep 2018 00:00	213	210 thousand	140 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
10	09 Sep 2018 06:00	185	3.5 million	40 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
11	09 Sep 2018 12:00	241	24.9 million	200 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
12	09 Sep 2018 18:00	250	26.1 million	820 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
13	10 Sep 2018 00:00	250	25.7 million	2.2 million	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
14	10 Sep 2018 06:00	250	27 million	750 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	12.3, 168
2	07 Sep 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	12.4, 166.7
3	07 Sep 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.8, 165.5
4	07 Sep 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13, 163.9
5	08 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.6, 162.3
6	08 Sep 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.3, 160.8
7	08 Sep 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.8, 159.1
8	08 Sep 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.9, 157
9	09 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	15.1, 154.9
10	09 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	15.3, 152.9
11	09 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.1, 150.9
12	09 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	49000 people	14.7, 149.1	Northern Mariana Islands
13	10 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 1	148	5400 people	210000 people	14.5, 147.4	Northern Mariana Islands
14	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 2	167	140000 people	210000 people	14.3, 145.7	Guam
14	10 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	160000 people	14, 142.7	Guam
14	11 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	14, 140.1
14	11 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	14.3, 137.7
14	12 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	14.6, 135.3
14	13 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 4	241	no people	96000 people	15.8, 130.8	Philippines
14	14 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 4	250	620000 people	26.8 million people	17.9, 126	Philippines
14	15 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	20.2, 120.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Guam
Philippines

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Northern Mariana Is.	Northern Mariana Islands
Guam	Guam
Cagayan Valley	Philippines
Cordillera Administrative Region	Philippines
Ilocos	Philippines

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Hagåtña		Guam	Capital	1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Rota I International	ROP	185	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Dynasty		46				0
West Tinian	TIQ	82	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Andersen AFB	UAM	191				0
A.B. Won Pat International	GUM	91				0
Basco	BSO	56	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Taggat		5				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Rota		Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian		Northern Mariana Islands
Apra Harbor		Guam
Port San Vicente		Philippines
Aparri	PHAPR	Philippines
Basco		Philippines
Abulog		Philippines
Calayan		Philippines
Claveria		Philippines
Dirique Inlet		Philippines

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (63 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 10 Sep 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Sep 2018 09:00	Songsong	Northern Mariana Islands	0.5
	10 Sep 2018 09:00	Teteto	Northern Mariana Islands	0.5
	10 Sep 2018 08:00	Rota	Northern Mariana Islands	0.5
	10 Sep 2018 08:00	Sinapalo	Northern Mariana Islands	0.5
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Harmon Village	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Oceanview	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Dededo	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	South Acres	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Ipapao	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Potts Junction	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Perez Acres	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Spring Hill Subdivision	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Upi	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Gayinero	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Asatdas	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Lupog	Guam	0.2
	14 Sep 2018 03:00	Wright	Philippines	0.2
	14 Sep 2018 02:00	Pequit	Philippines	0.2
	14 Sep 2018 02:00	Pabanong	Philippines	0.2
	14 Sep 2018 02:00	Hinabangan	Philippines	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Sunharon Roads	Northern Mariana Islands	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Lockwood Terrace	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Camp Bright	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Piti	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Asan	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Hagatna	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Sinajana	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Mongmong	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Yona	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Tamuning	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Barrigada	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Camp Quezon	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Asbeco	Guam	0.2
	10 Sep 2018 10:00	Adacao	Guam	0.2
	14 Sep 2018 02:00	Bangon	Philippines	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Agat	Guam	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Santa Rita	Guam	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Talofofo	Guam	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Ylig	Guam	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 03:00	Mualbual	Philippines	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Afetna	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Susupi	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Laolao	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Chalan Kanoa	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Aslito	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Saipan	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Kagman	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Umatac	Guam	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Merizo	Guam	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 11:00	Inarajan	Guam	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 04:00	Bagas	Philippines	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 03:00	Bikal	Philippines	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Garapan	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Mutcho	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	Tanapag	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	10 Sep 2018 06:00	San Roque	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 06:00	Pandan	Philippines	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 06:00	Panganiban	Philippines	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 03:00	Macalonud	Philippines	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 03:00	Catbalogan	Philippines	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 20:00	San Andres	Philippines	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 02:00	Babatngon	Philippines	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 06:00	Balza	Philippines	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.