Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
11 Sep 2018 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1 m (15 Sep 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 269 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

269 km/h Current

Up to 43.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 250 25.7 million 2.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 250 27 million 750 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 259 65.2 million 210 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 250 113 million 1.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 250 151 million 3.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 250 185.2 million 31.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 250 190.1 million 37 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 269 207.4 million 43.4 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
GREEN
 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
GREEN
 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
GREEN
 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
GREEN
 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 49000 people no people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 210000 people 5300 people 14.5, 147.4 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
 14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 210000 people 130000 people 14.3, 145.7 Guam
GREEN
 15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 14.1, 144.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
 16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 160000 people no people 14, 142.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
 17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14, 141.2
GREEN
 18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 14, 139.7
GREEN
 19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.7, 138.6
GREEN
 20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 137.3
GREEN
 20 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 14.2, 135
GREEN
 20 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 14.7, 132.6
GREEN
 20 13 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 5 278 86000 people no people 15.5, 130.1 Philippines
RED
 20 13 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 269 47.1 million people 1.7 million people 16.4, 127.7 Philippines
RED
 20 14 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 241 142 million people 3 million people 18.5, 122.7 Philippines
ORANGE
 20 15 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 194 158.4 million people 40.2 million people 20.6, 116.9 China
GREEN
 20 16 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 22.5, 111 China
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Guam
Northern Mariana Is.
Philippines
China

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Guam Guam 140000 people
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people
Ilocos Philippines 3.5 million people
Guangdong China 69.6 million people
Hong Kong China 5.8 million people
Macau China 380000 people
Guangxi China 46.8 million people

Populated places

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Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Dynasty 46 0
Palanan 50 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Tuguegarao TUG 21 Civ. Paved No 5900
Taggat 5 0
Laoag International LAO 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7900
Pratas Island 3 0
Sek Kong 15 Priv. Paved No 4100
Hong Kong International (Chep Lap Kok) HKG 9 Civ. Paved Yes 12400
Shenzhen SZX 4 Civ. Paved Yes 11100
Macau MFM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 11000
Zhuhai ZUH 6 0
Shanzhou SZO unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Apra Harbor Guam
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
Rota Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands
Palanan Philippines
Port San Vicente Philippines
Aparri PHAPR Philippines
Abulog Philippines
Calayan Philippines
Claveria Philippines
Laoag PHLAO Philippines
Gan Bay Philippines
Dirique Inlet Philippines
Salomague Philippines
Pratas Island China
Lufeng Terminal China
Lan Shui Terminal China
Huizhou Terminal CNHUI China
Xijiang Terminal China
Spec / lde 888 China
Hong Kong HKHKG Hong Kong (China)
Yantian CNYTN China
Chiwan CNCWN China
Jiangmen CNJMN China
Yangjiang CNYJI China

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Dalongdong Dalongdong He 1959
Donghu Nalong He 1961
Jinjiang Tan He 1972
Huangsha Yanghua Jiang 1960
Renshui Luoguang Shui 1975
Fucao Qianpai He 1997
Gaozhou Dajing He 1959
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.7m in Xiaolin, China. This height is estimated for 16 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (822 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 38 of 16 Sep 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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