Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for LEKIMA-19 in , China, Japan from 04 Aug 2019 00:00 UTC to 08 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS

Impact Single TC

HWRF

ECMWF

GFS

Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LEKIMA-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries	, China, Japan
Exposed population	7 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge	3.3 m (10 Aug 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS Current	185 km/h	3.3 m	n.a.	2.5
GDACS Overall	241 km/h	3.3 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

185 km/h Current

Up to 34.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat. 1 or higher	Countries
1	04 Aug 2019 00:00	130	12.5 million	100 thousand	Japan
2	04 Aug 2019 06:00	148	24.1 million	100 thousand	Japan
3	04 Aug 2019 12:00	167	34.7 million	50 thousand	Japan
4	04 Aug 2019 18:00	176	99.1 million	50 thousand	Japan
5	05 Aug 2019 00:00	167	98.6 million	50 thousand	Japan
6	05 Aug 2019 06:00	120	220.9 million	10.7 million	China
7	05 Aug 2019 12:00	102	229.4 million	No people	Japan, China
8	05 Aug 2019 18:00	120	307.3 million	4.5 million	China
9	06 Aug 2019 00:00	130	239.8 million	9.7 million	China
10	06 Aug 2019 06:00	139	206.5 million	10.8 million	China
11	06 Aug 2019 12:00	167	254.5 million	18.4 million	China
12	06 Aug 2019 18:00	185	209.7 million	13.9 million	Japan, China
13	07 Aug 2019 00:00	120	204 million	1.2 million	Japan, China
14	07 Aug 2019 06:00	231	261.1 million	32.1 million	Japan, China
15	07 Aug 2019 12:00	222	285.3 million	33.7 million	Japan, China
16	07 Aug 2019 18:00	231	281 million	35.4 million	Japan, China
17	08 Aug 2019 00:00	185	291.3 million	43.1 million	Japan, China
18	08 Aug 2019 06:00	185	453.6 million	34.4 million	Japan, China

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	04 Aug 2019 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	16.1, 131.6
2	04 Aug 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	16.5, 131.3
3	04 Aug 2019 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.6, 131.4
4	04 Aug 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.3, 130.4
5	05 Aug 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.8, 130.1
6	05 Aug 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	19.1, 129.7
7	05 Aug 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.7, 129.4
8	05 Aug 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	18.6, 129
9	06 Aug 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	18.8, 129.1
10	06 Aug 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	19.1, 129
11	06 Aug 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	19.7, 128.5
12	06 Aug 2019 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	19.5, 128.2
13	07 Aug 2019 00:00	Category 1	130	100000 people	no people	20.2, 128.2	Japan
14	07 Aug 2019 06:00	Category 2	157	1.5 million people	no people	20.9, 127.7	China
15	07 Aug 2019 12:00	Category 3	185	24.5 million people	no people	21.6, 127.1	China
16	07 Aug 2019 18:00	Category 3	204	24.7 million people	no people	22.1, 126.4	China
17	08 Aug 2019 00:00	Category 4	213	25.7 million people	51000 people	22.7, 126	Japan
18	08 Aug 2019 06:00	Category 4	241	151.9 million people	100000 people	23.6, 125.5	Japan
18	08 Aug 2019 18:00	Category 4	231	252.1 million people	54000 people	25, 123.9	Japan
18	09 Aug 2019 06:00	Category 4	213	254 million people	8300 people	26.2, 122.6	China
18	09 Aug 2019 18:00	Category 3	185	234.2 million people	3.4 million people	27.2, 121.8	China
18	10 Aug 2019 06:00	Category 2	167	249.5 million people	34 million people	28.3, 121.4	China
18	11 Aug 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	111	325.2 million people	no people	32, 121.2	China
18	12 Aug 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	255.8 million people	no people	34.7, 119.3	China
18	13 Aug 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	35.7, 118.5	China

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Exposed population

Countries

Country
Japan
China

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population
Okinawa	Japan	1.2 million people
Zhejiang	China	45.9 million people
Shanghai	China	14.7 million people
Jiangsu	China	74.3 million people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ishigaki	Okinawa	Japan	City	44000 people
Songmen	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Chumen	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Wenling	Zhejiang	China	City	67000 people
Xinhe	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Qingjiang	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Zeguo	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Dajing	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Jiaojiang	Zhejiang	China	City	460000 people
Qiansuo	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Taozhu	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Huangyan	Zhejiang	China	City	140000 people
Lipu	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Huaqiao	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Lin-hai	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Dahu	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Liangtoumen	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Lingjing	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Ninghai	Zhejiang	China	City	67000 people
Xizhou	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Tiantai	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Fuxi	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Ningbo	Zhejiang	China	City	710000 people
Cicheng	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Guancheng	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Yuyao	Zhejiang	China	City	110000 people
Kanxi	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Jinshanwei	Shanghai	China	City	-
Zhapu	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Nanqiao	Shanghai	China	City	-
Zhujing	Shanghai	China	City	-
Songjiang	Shanghai	China	City	100000 people
Sijing	Shanghai	China	City	-
Shanghai	Shanghai	China	Major city	9.8 million people
Nanxiang	Shanghai	China	City	-
Wusong	Shanghai	China	City	-
Luodian	Shanghai	China	City	-
Liuhe	Shanghai	China	City	-
Taicang	Jiangsu	China	City	-
Chongming	Jiangsu	China	City	-
Shaxi	Jiangsu	China	City	-
Changlezhen	Jiangsu	China	City	-
Haimen	Jiangsu	China	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Hirara	MMY	45	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
		9				0
Shimojishima	SHI	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Ishigaki	ISG	26	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Iriomote Jima		12				0
Hateruma	HTR	unknown				0
Yonaguni	OGN	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Luqiaq	HYN	9				0
Ningbo (Lishe)	NGB	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
		11				0
Longhua		2				0
Hongqiao	SHA	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11100
Southwest Highway Strip		6				0
Jiangwan		6				0
Dachang		8				0
Xingdong		5				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Myako Island		Japan
Hirara		Japan
Ishigaki		Japan
Ishigaki Island		Japan
Irionote Island		Japan
Kan Men Chiang		China
Haimen	CNHME	China
Ning Hai		China
Ningbo	CNNGB	China
Hangzhou		China
Shanghai	CNSHA	China

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Sokobaru	Sokobaru	Sokobarugawa	1992
Maezato	Maezato	Miyaragawa	1982
Nagura	Nagura	Naguragawa	1996
	Human	Trib. Jiao Jiang	-99
	Taihu	Trib. Jiao Jiang	1962
	Fuxi	Dajinxi	1979
	Xikou	Trib. Jiao Jiang	-99
	Changtan	Huangyanxi	1961
	Niutoushan	Nixi	-99
	Qiaoying	Trib. Caoe Jiang	-99
	Hengshan	Xian Jiang	1966
	Hengxi	Yong Jiang	1978
	Tingxia	Yong Jiang	1985
	Jiaokou	Fenghua Jiang	1975

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

3.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 3.6m in San-chia-shih, China. This height is estimated for 09 Aug 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (774 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 30 of 11 Aug 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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