Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ELOISE-21 in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC to 19 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21

in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

19 Jan 2021 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population	1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (22 Jan 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Mozambique)
Landfall	between 19 Jan 2021 06:00 - 19 Jan 2021 18:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	130 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 770000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	17 Jan 2021 06:00	102	3.1 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	17 Jan 2021 18:00	111	3.2 million	No people	Madagascar
3	18 Jan 2021 06:00	111	5.7 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
4	18 Jan 2021 18:00	111	5.7 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
5	19 Jan 2021 06:00	130	5.7 million	770 thousand	Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	17 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-12.6, 62.1
2	17 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.2, 59.6
3	18 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.7, 56.6
4	18 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	250000 people	-14.1, 53
5	19 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1000000 people	-14.5, 51.7
5	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.6 million people	-14.9, 50.2	Madagascar
5	20 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.1 million people	-15.4, 48.4	Madagascar
5	20 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	640000 people	-16.2, 46.3	Madagascar
5	21 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	320000 people	-17.3, 44.3	Madagascar
5	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	570000 people	-19.2, 40.8
5	23 Jan 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	770000 people	2.9 million people	-21.4, 37.2
5	24 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-23.6, 34.5	Mozambique

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Inhambane	Mozambique
Gaza	Mozambique

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Maxixe		Mozambique	City	120000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vilanculos	VNX	14	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Vilanculas		Mozambique

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2021 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (191 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 19 Jan 2021 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Jan 2021 09:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.4
	22 Jan 2021 11:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.4
	22 Jan 2021 01:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.4
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 14:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 14:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 14:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 14:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 09:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 09:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 09:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 09:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 11:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 19:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 09:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 05:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 09:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 12:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 12:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 11:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 05:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 13:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 19:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 07:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 19:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 21:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	21 Jan 2021 09:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 05:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 13:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 07:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 04:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 04:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 04:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 11:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 07:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 07:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 07:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 07:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 11:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 11:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 03:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 12:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 11:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 11:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 11:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 10:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 09:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 11:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 10:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 07:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 10:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 10:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 10:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 14:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Amborimalana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 06:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 14:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 10:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 14:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 15:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 20:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 14:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 07:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 07:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 15:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 15:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 15:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 15:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 20:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 20:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 03:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 03:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 03:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 03:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 01:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 02:00	Metapa	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 20:00	Morrua	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 10:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 05:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 02:00	Chululu	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 18:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 02:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 20:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 02:00	Carramali	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 10:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 17:00	Namorre	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 22:00	Moebase	Mozambique	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 22:00	Murrumuana	Mozambique	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 15:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 07:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 23:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 14:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 16:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 06:00	Afo	Mozambique	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 13:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 11:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 10:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 14:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 15:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 20:00	Mutadua	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 06:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 19:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 18:00	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 09:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 17:00	Napito	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 16:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Farahalana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Antohamaro	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 19:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 19:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 17:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 08:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Ambodipont-Sahana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 17:00	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 14:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 16:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 16:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 07:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 16:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 19:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 19:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2021 08:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 14:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.