Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21
in Cocos (Keeling) Islands,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIAN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (26 Feb 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cocos Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 93 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 185 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to <1000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 26 Feb 2021 00:00 148 No people No people
Green 2 26 Feb 2021 12:00 157 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 3 27 Feb 2021 00:00 157 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 4 27 Feb 2021 12:00 148 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 5 28 Feb 2021 00:00 157 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 6 28 Feb 2021 12:00 185 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 7 01 Mar 2021 00:00 167 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 8 01 Mar 2021 12:00 157 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 9 02 Mar 2021 00:00 167 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 10 02 Mar 2021 12:00 167 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 11 03 Mar 2021 00:00 148 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 12 03 Mar 2021 12:00 93 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 26 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -14.2, 100.4
GREEN
2 26 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 111 <1000 people no people -14.8, 97
GREEN
3 27 Feb 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -15, 94.7
GREEN
4 27 Feb 2021 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -16.2, 93.3
GREEN
5 28 Feb 2021 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.9, 92
GREEN
6 28 Feb 2021 12:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -17.4, 91.3
GREEN
7 01 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -17.8, 90.4
GREEN
8 01 Mar 2021 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -18.3, 89.5
GREEN
9 02 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18.6, 89.5
GREEN
10 02 Mar 2021 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18.7, 89.8
GREEN
11 03 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -18.9, 90.9
GREEN
12 03 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -19.3, 92.1
GREEN
12 04 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -20.3, 93.2
GREEN
12 04 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -21.5, 94.2
GREEN
12 05 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -23, 95.1
GREEN
12 05 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -24.4, 95.8
GREEN
12 06 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -26.9, 96.8
GREEN
12 07 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -28.4, 97.4
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Cocos Is.

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Cocos Is. Cocos (Keeling) Islands -

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
West Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands Capital <1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Cocos Is CCK 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7900

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Losan, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 26 Feb 2021 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (35 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 06 Mar 2021 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Losan Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Klampok Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Karangroto Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Cilancang Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Tegal Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Pemalang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Petaroekan Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Sigedang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Pekalongan Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Sidja Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Kendal Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Mangkang-Kulan Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Semarang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Wedung Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Kedungmalang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Bugel Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Jepara Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 03:00 Tipar Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 03:00 Balubuk Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 04:00 Patrol Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 04:00 Kandanghaur Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 04:00 Cangkring Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Indramaju Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 03:00 Kramat Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 03:00 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 03:00 Sungaibuntu Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 04:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 04:00 Muaratjilamaja Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 06:00 Karanggondang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 03:00 Pedes Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 06:00 Karangsari Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 04:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 04:00 Domas Indonesia  0.1