Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21
in Cocos (Keeling) Islands,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIAN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 162 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (06 Mar 06:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cocos Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 72 km/h 0.5 m 39 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 0.5 m 897 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 05 Mar 2021 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Feb 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Feb 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Feb 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Feb 2021 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 27 Feb 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Feb 2021 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Feb 2021 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Feb 2021 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 28 Feb 2021 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Feb 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 28 Feb 2021 12:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 28 Feb 2021 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 01 Mar 2021 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 01 Mar 2021 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 01 Mar 2021 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 01 Mar 2021 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 02 Mar 2021 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 02 Mar 2021 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 02 Mar 2021 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 02 Mar 2021 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 03 Mar 2021 00:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 03 Mar 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 03 Mar 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 03 Mar 2021 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 04 Mar 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 04 Mar 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 04 Mar 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 04 Mar 2021 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 05 Mar 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 05 Mar 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:

Rainfall

897 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 05 Mar 2021 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Feb 2021 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Feb 2021 06:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Feb 2021 12:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Feb 2021 18:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 27 Feb 2021 00:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Feb 2021 06:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Feb 2021 12:00 122 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Feb 2021 18:00 143 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 28 Feb 2021 00:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Feb 2021 06:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 28 Feb 2021 12:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 28 Feb 2021 18:00 124 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 01 Mar 2021 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 01 Mar 2021 06:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 01 Mar 2021 12:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 01 Mar 2021 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 02 Mar 2021 00:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 02 Mar 2021 06:00 165 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 02 Mar 2021 12:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 02 Mar 2021 18:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 03 Mar 2021 00:00 80 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 03 Mar 2021 06:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 03 Mar 2021 12:00 71 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 03 Mar 2021 18:00 64 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 04 Mar 2021 00:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 04 Mar 2021 06:00 53 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 04 Mar 2021 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 04 Mar 2021 18:00 56 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 05 Mar 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 05 Mar 2021 06:00 39 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in The Settlement, Christmas Island. This height is estimated for 06 Mar 2021 06:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Mar 2021 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Mar 2021 06:30 The Settlement Christmas Island  0.5
02 Mar 2021 19:00 South Point Christmas Island  0.2
06 Mar 2021 07:15 West Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands  0.2