Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIAN-21 in Cocos (Keeling) Islands, from 26 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC to 04 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21

in Cocos (Keeling) Islands,

04 Mar 2021 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIAN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (26 Feb 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Cocos Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	185 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to <1000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	26 Feb 2021 00:00	148	No people	No people
2	26 Feb 2021 12:00	157	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
3	27 Feb 2021 00:00	157	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
4	27 Feb 2021 12:00	148	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
5	28 Feb 2021 00:00	157	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
6	28 Feb 2021 12:00	185	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
7	01 Mar 2021 00:00	167	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
8	01 Mar 2021 12:00	157	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
9	02 Mar 2021 00:00	167	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
10	02 Mar 2021 12:00	167	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
11	03 Mar 2021 00:00	148	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
12	03 Mar 2021 12:00	93	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
13	04 Mar 2021 00:00	102	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
14	04 Mar 2021 12:00	83	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	26 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 100.4
2	26 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	<1000 people	-14.8, 97
3	27 Feb 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15, 94.7
4	27 Feb 2021 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-16.2, 93.3
5	28 Feb 2021 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-16.9, 92
6	28 Feb 2021 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	-17.4, 91.3
7	01 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-17.8, 90.4
8	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-18.3, 89.5
9	02 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-18.6, 89.5
10	02 Mar 2021 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-18.7, 89.8
11	03 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-18.9, 90.9
12	03 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-19.3, 92.1
13	04 Mar 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-20.6, 93.2
14	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-21.8, 93.9
14	05 Mar 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-23.1, 94.7
14	05 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-24.5, 95.3
14	06 Mar 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-25.8, 95.9
14	06 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-26.8, 96.5
14	07 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-27.9, 96.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Cocos Is.

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Cocos Is.	Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
West Island		Cocos (Keeling) Islands	Capital	<1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Cocos Is	CCK	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7900

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Losan, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 26 Feb 2021 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (35 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 04 Mar 2021 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Losan	Indonesia	0.2
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Bulakamba	Indonesia	0.2
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Klampok	Indonesia	0.2
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Karangroto	Indonesia	0.2
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Cilancang	Indonesia	0.2
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Tegal	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Pemalang	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Petaroekan	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Sigedang	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Pekalongan	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Sidja	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Kendal	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Mangkang-Kulan	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Semarang	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Wedung	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Kedungmalang	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Bugel	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Karangampel	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Jepara	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 03:00	Tipar	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 03:00	Balubuk	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 04:00	Patrol	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 04:00	Kandanghaur	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 04:00	Cangkring	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 05:00	Indramaju	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 03:00	Kramat	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 03:00	Cengkarengbelakang	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 03:00	Sungaibuntu	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 04:00	Pasirputih	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 04:00	Muaratjilamaja	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 06:00	Karanggondang	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 03:00	Pedes	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 06:00	Karangsari	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 04:00	Ketapang	Indonesia	0.1
	26 Feb 2021 04:00	Domas	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.