Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 22 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

22 Feb 2022 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (23 Feb 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 18:00 - 23 Feb 2022 06:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	139 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	148	14.9 million	220 thousand	Madagascar
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	176	17.7 million	2.3 million	Madagascar
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	157	19.1 million	2.9 million	Madagascar
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	167	16.2 million	3.2 million	Madagascar
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	194	20.2 million	4.9 million	Madagascar
9	20 Feb 2022 06:00	213	19.3 million	3.2 million	Madagascar
10	20 Feb 2022 18:00	204	19.5 million	4.3 million	Madagascar
11	21 Feb 2022 06:00	194	19.7 million	2.6 million	Madagascar
12	21 Feb 2022 18:00	176	18.5 million	3.1 million	Madagascar
13	22 Feb 2022 06:00	139	18 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
14	22 Feb 2022 18:00	139	15.6 million	3 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 63
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 61.3
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16, 59.5
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.4, 58.1
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	460000 people	-16.9, 57.1
9	20 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-17.2, 55.9
10	20 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	120000 people	-17.6, 54.6
11	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	4.5 million people	-17.9, 53.5
12	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-18.5, 52.1
13	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 1	148	610000 people	14.8 million people	-19.8, 50.3
14	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	139	1.8 million people	8.6 million people	-21.6, 48.8
14	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 1	120	1.9 million people	7.1 million people	-23.1, 47.3	Madagascar
14	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	3.5 million people	-24.9, 45.4	Madagascar
14	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.4 million people	-26.5, 43.9
14	24 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-28.3, 43
14	25 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-31.5, 43.3

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Toamasina	Madagascar
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Manakara	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	35000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Farafangana	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	25000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Manakara Sud	WVK	10	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Farafangana	RVA	8	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3400
Bekily	OVA	387	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar
Manakara	MGWVK	Madagascar
Farafangana	MGRVA	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Savana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 23 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (178 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 22 Feb 2022 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.6
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.6
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.6
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.6
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Zavo	Madagascar	0.6
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Befamata	Madagascar	0.5
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Farafangana	Madagascar	0.5
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Manambotra	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 05:00	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Ambalanosy	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Bemahala	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 05:00	Sarahanonoy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Tanilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Androka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 07:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 09:00	Ankaramanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 07:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Esama	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Manambondro	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 10:00	Antsotso Avaratra	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Talaky	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 07:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Vodivola	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 09:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 10:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Ankaratravitra	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Belefotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Amboananto	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Ampary	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Manombo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Sainte-Luce	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Faux-Cap	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Antavy Atsimo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Antseranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Marokoky	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 10:00	Vatomirindry	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 10:00	Ambanihazo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Ambazoa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Iambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Tulear	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambazoamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Ankazomanitsy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Beaniky	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Esanta	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Antanandava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Maroloha	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Analapetsa	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 00:00	Besasavy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Anakao	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Soalara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Vohitsara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Ambodihariha	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Antetezambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Ankilihago	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Miary	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Anja-Belitsaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Lavavolo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Itampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Belalanda	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 01:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 09:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Elanja	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Ampasimpolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Belay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Ankazoabo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Tolanaro	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.