Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

24 Feb 2022 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.9 m (22 Feb 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 18:00 - 23 Feb 2022 06:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to 15.8 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	148	14.9 million	220 thousand	Madagascar
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	176	17.7 million	2.3 million	Madagascar
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	157	19.1 million	2.9 million	Madagascar
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	167	16.2 million	3.2 million	Madagascar
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	194	20.2 million	4.9 million	Madagascar
9	20 Feb 2022 06:00	213	19.3 million	3.2 million	Madagascar
10	20 Feb 2022 18:00	204	19.5 million	4.3 million	Madagascar
11	21 Feb 2022 06:00	194	19.7 million	2.6 million	Madagascar
12	21 Feb 2022 18:00	176	18.5 million	3.1 million	Madagascar
13	22 Feb 2022 06:00	139	18 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
14	22 Feb 2022 18:00	139	15.6 million	3 million	Madagascar
15	23 Feb 2022 06:00	111	15.9 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
16	23 Feb 2022 18:00	93	15.8 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
17	24 Feb 2022 06:00	83	15.8 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
18	24 Feb 2022 18:00	83	15.8 million	2.2 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 63
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 61.3
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16, 59.5
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.4, 58.1
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	460000 people	-16.9, 57.1
9	20 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-17.2, 55.9
10	20 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	120000 people	-17.6, 54.6
11	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	4.5 million people	-17.9, 53.5
12	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-18.5, 52.1
13	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 1	148	610000 people	14.8 million people	-19.8, 50.3
14	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	139	1.8 million people	8.6 million people	-21.6, 48.8
15	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	6.8 million people	-23.6, 46.3	Madagascar
16	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	540000 people	-24.7, 43.5
17	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.9 million people	-27, 43
18	24 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-28.7, 41.8
18	25 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-31.2, 41.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.