Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for FREDDY-23 in Mozambique, Madagascar from 06 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC to 18 Feb 2023 04:00 UTC

18 Feb 2023 04 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2023-000023-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	243 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 Feb 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 21 Feb 2023 16:00 - 22 Feb 2023 04:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	222 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	243 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

222 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	10 Feb 2023 16:00	127	No people	No people
2	10 Feb 2023 22:00	127	No people	No people
3	11 Feb 2023 04:00	158	No people	No people
4	11 Feb 2023 10:00	158	No people	No people
5	11 Feb 2023 16:00	190	No people	No people
6	11 Feb 2023 22:00	211	No people	No people
7	12 Feb 2023 04:00	201	No people	No people
8	12 Feb 2023 10:00	201	No people	No people
9	12 Feb 2023 16:00	190	No people	No people
10	12 Feb 2023 22:00	201	No people	No people
11	13 Feb 2023 04:00	211	No people	No people
12	13 Feb 2023 10:00	201	No people	No people
13	13 Feb 2023 16:00	190	No people	No people
14	13 Feb 2023 22:00	169	No people	No people
15	14 Feb 2023 04:00	158	No people	No people
16	14 Feb 2023 10:00	158	No people	No people
17	14 Feb 2023 16:00	179	No people	No people
18	14 Feb 2023 22:00	232	No people	No people
19	15 Feb 2023 04:00	243	No people	No people
20	15 Feb 2023 10:00	243	No people	No people
21	15 Feb 2023 16:00	243	No people	No people
22	15 Feb 2023 22:00	232	No people	No people
23	16 Feb 2023 04:00	232	No people	No people
24	16 Feb 2023 10:00	232	450 thousand	No people	Mauritius
25	16 Feb 2023 16:00	232	660 thousand	No people	Mauritius
26	16 Feb 2023 22:00	232	2.6 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
27	17 Feb 2023 04:00	211	8.1 million	420 thousand	Madagascar
28	17 Feb 2023 10:00	201	10.5 million	1.3 million	Madagascar
29	17 Feb 2023 16:00	211	18.3 million	3.1 million	Madagascar
30	17 Feb 2023 22:00	211	17.9 million	1.2 million	Madagascar
31	18 Feb 2023 04:00	222	18.4 million	2.9 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	10 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 1	127	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-14.8, 106.7
2	10 Feb 2023 22:00	Category 1	127	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-14.8, 106
3	11 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 2	158	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-14.8, 105.1
4	11 Feb 2023 10:00	Category 2	158	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-14.8, 104.1
5	11 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 3	190	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	167	-14.8, 103.1
6	11 Feb 2023 22:00	Category 4	211	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	185	-14.8, 102.1
7	12 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 3	201	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	176	-15, 101.2
8	12 Feb 2023 10:00	Category 3	201	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	176	-15, 100.2
9	12 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 3	190	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	167	-15.1, 99
10	12 Feb 2023 22:00	Category 3	201	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	176	-15.1, 98
11	13 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 4	211	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	185	-15.2, 96.9
12	13 Feb 2023 10:00	Category 3	201	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	176	-15.3, 95.9
13	13 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 3	190	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	167	-15.4, 94.6
14	13 Feb 2023 22:00	Category 2	169	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-15.4, 93.7
15	14 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 2	158	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-15.3, 92.5
16	14 Feb 2023 10:00	Category 2	158	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-15.4, 91.3
17	14 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 3	179	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	157	-15.3, 90.1
18	14 Feb 2023 22:00	Category 3	201	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	176	-15.2, 88.8
19	15 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 4	232	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	204	-15.2, 87.6
20	15 Feb 2023 10:00	Category 4	243	no people	no people	Very Intense Tropical Cyclone	213	-15, 86.3
21	15 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 4	243	no people	no people	Very Intense Tropical Cyclone	213	-14.9, 84.9
22	15 Feb 2023 22:00	Category 4	232	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	204	-14.8, 83.6
23	16 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 4	232	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	204	-14.7, 82.3
24	16 Feb 2023 10:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	194	-14.8, 81
25	16 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 4	211	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	185	-14.9, 79.6
26	16 Feb 2023 22:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	194	-15.1, 78.1
27	17 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	194	-15.3, 76.6
28	17 Feb 2023 10:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	194	-15.5, 75.2
29	17 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 4	232	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	204	-15.8, 74
30	17 Feb 2023 22:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	194	-15.9, 72.8
31	18 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	194	-16, 71.4
31	18 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 4	232	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	204	-16.2, 69.6
31	19 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 4	232	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	204	-16.5, 67.3
31	19 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 4	232	no people	43000 people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	204	-17.1, 64.7
31	20 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 4	243	no people	1.3 million people	Very Intense Tropical Cyclone	213	-17.7, 61.6
31	20 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 4	232	no people	2.1 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	204	-18.4, 58.3
31	21 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 4	222	no people	12.2 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	194	-19.1, 54.9
31	21 Feb 2023 16:00	Category 4	222	1.1 million people	15.1 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	194	-19.8, 51.3
31	22 Feb 2023 04:00	Category 4	222	2.9 million people	15.4 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	194	-20.2, 48.5	Madagascar
31	22 Feb 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.1 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-20.8, 44.9	Madagascar
31	23 Feb 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-21.4, 42.3

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	2.9 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Toamasina	Madagascar	580000 people
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	1.3 million people
Antananarivo	Madagascar	940000 people
Toliara	Madagascar	66000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ambositra	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	30000 people
Antsirabe	Antananarivo	Madagascar	City	150000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400
Antsirabe	ATJ	1523	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4900
Malaimbandy	WML	182	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3900
Mandabe	WMD	290	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ambahy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 Feb 2023 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (13 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 30 of 17 Feb 2023 22:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2023 18:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2023 22:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.1