Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YUTU-18
in Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone YUTU-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population 11 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge n.a.
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 111 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 1.1 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

111 km/h Current

Up to 11 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 2 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 5 22 Oct 2018 12:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 6 22 Oct 2018 18:00 204 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 7 23 Oct 2018 00:00 222 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 8 23 Oct 2018 06:00 213 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 231 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 10 23 Oct 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 11 24 Oct 2018 00:00 259 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 12 24 Oct 2018 06:00 278 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 13 24 Oct 2018 12:00 287 210 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 14 24 Oct 2018 18:00 278 260 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 15 25 Oct 2018 00:00 269 330 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 16 25 Oct 2018 06:00 269 2.1 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 17 25 Oct 2018 12:00 259 4.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 18 25 Oct 2018 18:00 241 9.3 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 19 26 Oct 2018 00:00 241 10.4 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 20 26 Oct 2018 06:00 241 33.8 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 21 26 Oct 2018 12:00 204 70.2 million 670 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 22 26 Oct 2018 18:00 222 54.3 million 1000 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 23 27 Oct 2018 00:00 222 115.8 million 1.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 24 27 Oct 2018 06:00 222 83.6 million 4.8 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 25 27 Oct 2018 12:00 204 121.5 million 3.5 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 26 27 Oct 2018 18:00 241 204 million 5.3 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 27 28 Oct 2018 00:00 241 242.3 million 6.2 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 28 28 Oct 2018 06:00 213 127 million 3.8 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 29 28 Oct 2018 12:00 185 125.8 million 3.4 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 30 28 Oct 2018 18:00 185 190.3 million 5.7 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 31 29 Oct 2018 00:00 157 105.6 million 6.8 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 32 29 Oct 2018 06:00 157 162.9 million 6.8 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 33 29 Oct 2018 12:00 167 147 million 5.8 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 34 29 Oct 2018 18:00 167 214.4 million 6.3 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 35 30 Oct 2018 00:00 148 179.9 million 10.7 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 36 30 Oct 2018 06:00 130 195.5 million 11 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 37 30 Oct 2018 12:00 130 211.2 million 11 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 38 30 Oct 2018 18:00 120 95.3 million 11 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 39 31 Oct 2018 00:00 120 76.9 million 11 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Green 40 31 Oct 2018 06:00 111 171.6 million 11 million Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 21 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 <1000 people no people 8.4, 157.6
GREEN
2 21 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 <1000 people no people 8.6, 156.8
GREEN
3 22 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 9, 155.9
GREEN
4 22 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 <1000 people no people 9.8, 155
GREEN
5 22 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 10.6, 153.8
GREEN
6 22 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 <1000 people no people 10.9, 152.7
GREEN
7 23 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 <1000 people no people 11.5, 151.6
GREEN
8 23 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 <1000 people no people 11.8, 150.6
GREEN
9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 200000 people no people 12, 149.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
10 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 210000 people no people 12.6, 148.9 Guam
RED
11 24 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 210000 people 50000 people 13.3, 147.9 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
12 24 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 210000 people 51000 people 13.9, 147.1 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
13 24 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 5 287 210000 people 51000 people 14.6, 146.2 Northern Mariana Islands
RED
14 24 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 278 210000 people 49000 people 15.3, 145.3 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
15 25 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 5 269 210000 people no people 15.8, 144.2 Guam
GREEN
16 25 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 210000 people no people 16, 143.2 Guam
GREEN
17 25 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 16.3, 142.3
GREEN
18 25 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.6, 141.4
GREEN
19 26 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.9, 140.3
GREEN
20 26 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.9, 138.9
GREEN
21 26 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 17.2, 137.6
GREEN
22 26 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 17.6, 136.2
GREEN
23 27 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 17.7, 134.7
GREEN
24 27 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 17.8, 133.3
GREEN
25 27 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 17.9, 132.2
GREEN
26 27 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 18, 131.1
GREEN
27 28 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 18, 130.1
GREEN
28 28 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 241 130000 people no people 17.9, 129 Philippines
GREEN
29 28 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 3 204 4.7 million people no people 17.7, 128.1 Philippines
GREEN
30 28 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 194 34.9 million people no people 17.4, 127 Philippines
GREEN
31 29 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 2 167 4.9 million people no people 16.9, 126.2 Philippines
GREEN
32 29 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 57.1 million people no people 16.8, 125.3 Philippines
ORANGE
33 29 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 54.1 million people 2 million people 16.7, 124.2 Philippines
ORANGE
34 29 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 2 167 57.2 million people 6.2 million people 16.8, 123 Philippines
ORANGE
35 30 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 54.7 million people 10.5 million people 16.8, 121.6 Philippines
ORANGE
36 30 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 50.9 million people 3 million people 16.8, 120 Philippines
GREEN
37 30 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 111 50 million people no people 16.6, 118.9 Philippines
GREEN
38 30 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 49.7 million people no people 16.6, 118.8 Philippines
GREEN
39 31 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 17.6 million people no people 17.4, 118 Philippines
GREEN
40 31 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 56.2 million people no people 18.1, 117.5 China
GREEN
40 31 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 111.5 million people no people 19.2, 116.9 China
GREEN
40 01 Nov 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 118.5 million people no people 20, 116.7 China
GREEN
40 01 Nov 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 113.5 million people no people 20.9, 116.8 Philippines
GREEN
40 02 Nov 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 95.2 million people no people 21.7, 116.9 China
GREEN
40 03 Nov 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 22.6, 116.8 China
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Philippines
Northern Mariana Is.

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Ilocos Philippines 3.5 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people
Central Luzon Philippines 6.1 million people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Southern Tagalog Philippines 8.2 million people
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Baguio Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines City 260000 people 378 km
Dagupan Ilocos Philippines City 130000 people 378 km
Tuguegarao Cagayan Valley Philippines City 110000 people 450 km
Cabagan Cagayan Valley Philippines City 24000 people 457 km
Santiago Cagayan Valley Philippines City 100000 people 457 km
Saipan Northern Mariana Islands Capital 62000 people 3029 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Vigan 4 Civ. Paved No 3400 309 km
San Fernando SFE 4 Civ. Paved No 3900 341 km
Lingayen 2 0 371 km
Loakan BAG 1292 Civ. Paved No 5500 383 km
Bagabag 249 Civ. Paved No 3200 431 km
Luzon Is Cubi Pt NCP unknown 0 439 km
Mrmp 117 0 448 km
Tuguegarao TUG 21 Civ. Paved No 5900 451 km
Cauayan CYZ 61 Civ. Paved No 5700 470 km
Baler BQA 9 Civ. Paved No 3900 504 km
Palanan 50 Civ. Unpaved No 3200 536 km
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 2996 km
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 3018 km
Dynasty 46 0 3021 km
Commonwealth Health Center 5 0 3025 km
Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700 3027 km
Nikko 18 0 3030 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Pandan Philippines 310 km
Bolinao Philippines 318 km
Port San Esteban Philippines 322 km
Poro / San Fernando PHPRO Philippines 338 km
San Fernando PHSFE Philippines 340 km
Lingayen PHLIN Philippines 362 km
Dagupan City Philippines 376 km
Baler Philippines 504 km
Casiguaran Philippines 530 km
Palanan Philippines 537 km
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 2987 km
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands 3019 km
Saipan MPSPN Northern Mariana Islands 3024 km
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands 3048 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Ambuklao Agno 1955 390 km
Binga Agno 1959 392 km
Magat Magat 1983 443 km
Pantabangan Upper Papanga 1974 460 km
Masiway Upper Papanga 1977 461 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

-1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Sunharon Roads, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (846 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 43 of 01 Nov 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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